Physical,radiative, and dynamical processes within a nighttime marine stratus cloud     

Ismail Gultepe 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(2):321-350

Observations taken by aircraft and conventional platforms are used to investigate dynamical, physical, and radiative processes within a marine stratus cloud during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP) II field project which took place over the east coast of Canada. Stratus which formed over the ocean on February 6, 1992 during the nighttime, is studied to analyze cloud top and base processes. The cloud was supercooled during the study period. Fluctuations and fluxes are calculated along constant flight altitude legs approximately 100 km long in space. The scales of structures larger than 5 km are removed from the analysis using a running average technique. Droplet spectra obtained by a forward scattering spectrometer probe (FSSP) were used in a 1-D radiative transfer model to calculate infrared (IR) fluxes and radiative heating rates. A heat conservation equation was used to estimate vertical air velocity (w _a ) within the cloud. The results showed that, because of a warmer ocean surface, significant moisture and heat were transferred from the ocean surface to the boundary layer. The cloud base was at about 400 m height and the top was at about 1.4 km.w _a at the cloud base was estimated about 5 cm s^–1. Strong IR cooling rate at the cloud top was calculated to be 75°C day^–1 for a 100 m thick layer. Negative skewness inw _a , suggesting narrow downdrafts, was likely due to radiative cooling at the cloud top. The entrainment velocity was found to be about 1.5 cm s^–1 at cloud top. Mean moisture and heat fluxes within the cloud were estimated to be comparable to those from the ocean surface. Vertical air velocity at the cloud top due to radiative cooling was found to be about –40 cm s^–1.  相似文献   

Downscaling a twentieth century global climate simulation to the North Sea   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

Bjørn Ådlandsvik  Mats Bentsen 《Ocean Dynamics》2007,57(4-5):453-466

The regional ocean model system (ROMS) is used to downscale a 26-year period of the twentieth century 20C3M experiment from the global coupled Bergen climate model (BCM) for the North Sea. Compared to an observational-based climatology, BCM have good results on the mean temperature, except for too low winter temperature. This is connected to a too weak inflow of Atlantic water. The downscaling gives added value to the BCM results by providing regional details, doubling the Atlantic inflow, and improving the mean winter temperature. For mean salinity, BCM has values very close to the climatology, whereas the downscaling becomes too fresh. The downscaling, however, improves the sea surface salinity, the vertical structure, and the Norwegian Coastal Current. It is concluded that the downscaling procedure as presented here is a suitable tool for assessing the future Atlantic inflow and sea temperature in the North Sea based on a global climate projection.  相似文献   

A study of design spectra based on attenuation relationship of ground motion     

NI Yong-jun  ZHU Xi 《地震学报(英文版)》2001,14(6):705-710

In recent years, more and more studies are focused on the performance in seismic design instead of the strength of structures. People have realized that the structure deformation (displacement) can describe the damage more properly and directly than the strength (force). The displacement design spectra need to be constructed within more wide range of the period and the damping for the displacement-based seismic design.  相似文献   

Dynamical systems and models for reversals of the earth's magnetic field     

D. R. J. Chillingworth  P. J. Holmes 《Mathematical Geology》1980,12(1):41-59

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Statistical Downscaling Based on Dynamically DownscaledPredictors： Application to Monthly Precipitation in Sweden   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Cecilia HELLSTR?M  Deliang CHEN 《大气科学进展》2003,20(6):951-958

A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale predictors. It is tested whether a three-step method can improve conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.  相似文献   

纬向平均环流预报的系统性误差及其改进   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

CHEN Bomin  JI Liren  YANG Peicai  ZHANG Daomin 《大气科学进展》2003,20(1):17-27

大量的月预报实例分析表明,纬向平均环流(本指高度场纬向平均分量)存在明显的系统性预报误差,且在总误差中占有可观的份额。国内外其它模式也存在类似的现象。为克服这一困难,本尝试了“结合”(hybrid)的途径。应用重构相空间理论和非线性时空序列预测方法,在大量历史资料的基础上,构造了月尺度逐侯纬向平均高度场(零波分量)距平场的非线性预报模型。然后,将非线性预报和谱模式动力预报结合起来,即将非线性预报结果转化为模式需要的颅报量,再在模式积分过程中的每一步取代其相应部分,实施过程订正。初步试验结果表明,这种途样合效地减少了模式纬向环流的预报误差;特别是通过非线性波流相互作用,还改善了部分波动分量的预报。  相似文献   

成矿动力系统在混沌边缘的分形生长——一种新的成矿理论与方法论     

於崇文 《矿物岩石地球化学通报》2002,21(2):103-113

笔将复杂性理论及非线性科学与矿床地质学相结合,对我国扬子古陆周缘6个矿集区的基本范式进行系统研究。结果指出,成矿系统总体上是开放、远离平衡、时－空延展的动力学系统。它们具有复杂性和自组织临界性的内禀基本属性,并且在混沌边缘分形生长。  相似文献   

Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Katja Woth  Ralf Weisse  Hans von Storch 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(1):3-15

The coastal zones are facing the prospect of changing storm surge statistics due to anthropogenic climate change. In the present study, we examine these prospects for the North Sea based on numerical modelling. The main tool is the barotropic tide-surge model TRIMGEO (Tidal Residual and Intertidal Mudflat Model) to derive storm surge climate and extremes from atmospheric conditions. The analysis is carried out by using an ensemble of four 30-year atmospheric regional simulations under present-day and possible future-enhanced greenhouse gas conditions. The atmospheric regional simulations were prepared within the EU project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). The research strategy of PRUDENCE is to compare simulations of different regional models driven by the same global control and climate change simulations. These global conditions, representative for 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 were prepared by the Hadley Center based on the IPCC A2 SRES scenario. The results suggest that under future climatic conditions, storm surge extremes may increase along the North Sea coast towards the end of this century. Based on a comparison between the results of the different ensemble members as well as on the variability estimated from a high-resolution storm surge reconstruction of the recent decades it is found that this increase is significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence level for most of the North Sea coast. An exception represents the East coast of the UK which is not affected by this increase of storm surge extremes.  相似文献   

Monthly Extended Predicting Experiments with Nonlinear Regional Prediction. Part Ⅱ： Improvement of Wave Component Prediction          下载免费PDF全文

陈伯民  纪立人  杨培才  张道民 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2006,20(3):295-305

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DOWNSCALING FORECAST OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION OVER GUANGXI BASED ON BP NEURAL NETWORK MODEL     

何慧  金龙  覃志年  袁丽军 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2007,13(1):97-100

Variables fields such as enstrophy, meridional-wind and zonal-wind variables are derived from monthly 500 hPa geopotential height anomalous fields. In this work, we select original predictors from monthly 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields and their variables in June of 1958 - 2001, and determine comprehensive predictors by conducting empirical orthogonal function (EOF) respectively with the original predictors. A downscaling forecast model based on the back propagation (BP) neural network is built by use of the comprehensive predictors to predict the monthly precipitation in June over Guangxi with the monthly dynamic extended range forecast products. For comparison, we also build another BP neural network model with the same predictands by using the former comprehensive predictors selected from 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields in May to December of 1957 - 2000 and January to April of 1958 - 2001. The two models are tested and results show that the precision of superposition of the downscaling model is better than that of the one based on former comprehensive predictors, but the prediction accuracy of the downscaling model depends on the output of monthly dynamic extended range forecast.  相似文献