基于卫星云参数的短时降水动态估测方法     

洪毅  袁德辉  柳岳清  高萍 《气象科技》2011,39(3):266-271

利用实时FY-2静止气象卫星红外云图和区域中尺度地面自动监测网加密降水资料,通过对云图进行参数化处理,采用动态相关方法分析长波红外分裂窗双谱组合、长波红外水汽双谱组合、亮温面积等各类卫星云参数与不同级别降水强度的关系,寻找当时与降水强度的最佳相关云参数化因子建立短时降水动态估测模型,并利用实时最新降水估测模型对未来3 ...  相似文献   

Can Artificial Climate Trends in Global Reanalysis be Reduced by Dynamical Downscaling:A Case Study of China          下载免费PDF全文

ZHAO Tian-Bao  ZHAO De-Ming 《大气和海洋科学快报》2011,4(1):30-35

In this study,the ability of dynamical downscaling for reduction of artificial climate trends in global reanalysis is tested in China.Dynamical downscaling is performed using a 60-km horizontal resolution Regional Integrated Environmental Model System (RIEMS) forced by the NCEP-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis II (NCEP-2).The results show that this regional climate model (RCM) can not only produce dynamically consistent fine scale fields of atmosphere and land surface in the regional domain,but it also has the ability to minimize artificial climate trends existing in the global reanalysis to a certain extent.As compared to the observed 2-meter temperature anomaly averaged across China,our model can simulate the observed inter-annual variation and variability as well as reduce artificial climate trends in the reanalysis by approximately 0.10 C decade 1 from 1980 to 2007.The RIEMS can effectively reduce artificial trends in global reanalysis for areas in western China,especially for regions with high altitude mountains and deserts,as well as introduce some new spurious changes in other local regions.The model simulations overestimated observed winter trends for most areas in eastern China with the exception of the Tibetan Plateau,and it greatly overestimated observed summer trends in the Sichuan Basin located in southwest China.This implies that the dynamical downscaling of RCM for long-term trends has certain seasonal and regional dependencies due to imperfect physical processes and parameterizations.  相似文献   

基于DERF的SD方法预测月降水和极端降水日数   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

刘绿柳  孙林海  廖要明  杜良敏  李想 《应用气象学报》2011,22(1):77-85

针对动力气候模式对区域或更小空间尺度内的日降水预测技巧偏低的问题,应用最优子集回归 (OSR) 方法对国家气候中心业务化的月动力气候模式 (DERF) 输出的高度场、风场和海平面气压场进行降尺度处理用于降水预测,旨在提高预测准确率。1982—2006年交叉检验结果表明:OSR方法能显著提高降水预测技巧,其中11~40 d改善效果最为显著。在此基础上,应用一步法和两步法两种统计降尺度方法预测极端降水日数,交叉检验结果表明:两种方法均优于随机预测,冬季两步法预测技巧略高于一步法,夏季一步法略优于两步法。综合认为OSR,OSR结合随机天气发生器 (WG) 两种统计降尺度方法对月尺度降水或极端降水日数的预测均具有较高的技巧,可作为短期气候预测的重要参考信息。  相似文献   

不同海域影响热带气旋强度变化的环境动力因素对比   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王喜  余锦华 《热带气象学报》2011,27(3):387-386

利用1982-2007年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、月平均海平面温度(SST)资料和西北太平洋、北大西洋以及北印度洋热带气旋(TC)资料,对比分析了环境动力因素对不同海域TC强度在不同时间尺度变化的影响.结果表明,在各时间尺度上,TC强度变化与垂直风切变变化有密切的联系.在西北太平洋,使TC过程强度增强或减弱的风切变...  相似文献   

Application of a BEM time stepping algorithm in understanding complex unsteady propulsion hydrodynamic phenomena     

Gerasimos K. Politis 《Ocean Engineering》2011,38(4):699-711

We solve the problem of unsteady potential flow around a system of arbitrarily moving rigid or flexible, lifting or non-lifting bodies, in an infinite fluid free of distributed vorticity. For the solution we use a time stepping algorithm and a potential based formulation of the corresponding free BVP. Nonlinear free shear layer dynamics are included in our modeling. This is a major innovation in treating complex unsteady propulsion problems since no simplifying assumptions (like that of a helicoidal wake) are used regarding the wake model. Bilinear quadrilateral elements are used to describe body and shear layer geometry at each time t. Three types of Kutta conditions can be alternatively applied for the determination of the shed vorticity from lifting bodies. The theoretical and numerical aspects of the method are presented followed by a number of applications, elucidating the qualitative and quantitative physical characteristics of a number of complex unsteady propulsion problems.  相似文献   

An installation system of deepwater risers by an S-lay vessel     

段梦兰  王懿  何宁  李丽娜  陈邦敏 《中国海洋工程》2011,25(1):139-148

Along with the consumption increase of the petroleum products,more countries have transferred their attentions to the offshore fields,especially the deepwater oil and gas reserves.For deepwater exploitation,the risers must be installed to act as the conduits connecting surface platforms to subsea facilities.In this paper,the typical risers sorted by different classes are introduced,and the correspondent installation methods are presented.By investigating the recent projects performed in the deepwater hot spots,and combining the challenges of HYSY201 for riser installation,a lifting device developed for assisting riser installation is proposed and detailed to satisfy the installation of deepwater risers in the LW3-1 Gas Field of in the South China Sea.Tests on both the functions and performances of such a new system exhibit the satisfaction of meeting all challenging requirements of HYSY201 for application to riser installation in waters up to a depth of in the South China Sea.  相似文献   

地质勘探套管钻进技术研究          下载免费PDF全文

钱锋  房勇  胡立  张宏刚  李政昭 《探矿工程》2013,40(7):69-72

针对复杂地层钻探,基于绳索取心钻进原理,采用不提钻换钻头取心钻进方法,开展地质勘探套管钻进新方法研究,包括套管取心钻具、代替绳索取心钻杆使用的套管,护壁措施、套管钻进工艺等,野外生产试验取得了较好的技术经济效果,并根据存在问题提出了进一步完善的建议。  相似文献   

区域经济发展动力系统的构建与运行机制研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

谷国锋 《地理科学》2008,28(3):320-324

区域经济发展需要动力,解决动力问题一直是区域经济学、经济地理学、发展经济学等学科长期研究的重点领域。单一动力对区域经济发展能够产生一定的功效,但缺乏系统动力是区域经济发展中一个普遍存在的问题。在科学发展观背景下,通过对区域经济发展要素的分类与综合分析,提出了"合动力网络"的概念,以自组织结构动力、技术创新动力、制度创新动力和文化动力为子系统,初步构建了区域经济发展的动力系统,并分析了动力系统及其子系统的相互作用关系和运行机制。  相似文献   

A stability analysis of a conduit flow model for lava dome eruptions     

M. Nakanishi  T. Koyaguchi 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

Periodic variations in magma discharge rate and ground deformation have been commonly observed during lava dome eruptions. We performed a stability analysis of a conduit flow model by Barmin et al. [Barmin, A., Melnik, O., Sparks, R.S.J., 2002. Periodic behavior in lava dome eruptions. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 199 (1-2), 173–184], in which the periodic variations in magma flow rate and chamber pressure are reproduced as a result of the temporal and spatial changes of the magma viscosity controlled by the kinetics of crystallization. The model is reduced to a dynamical system where the time derivatives of the magma flow rate (dQ/dt) and the chamber pressure (dP/dt) are functions of Q and P evaluated at a shifted time t − t_?. Here, the time delay t_? represents the time for the viscosity of fluid particle to increase in a conduit. The dynamical system with time delay is approximated by a simple two-dimensional dynamical system of Q and P where t_? is given as a parameter. The results of our linear stability analyses for these dynamical systems indicate that the transition from steady to periodic flow depends on nonlinearities in the steady state relation between Q and P. The steady state relation shows a sigmoidal curve in Q − P phase plane; its slope has negative values at intermediate flow rates. The steady state solutions become unstable, and hence P and Q oscillate periodically, when the negative slope of the steady state relation ([dP/dQ]_S) exceeds a critical value; that is [dP/dQ]_S < − t_?γ/(2V_ch), where V_ch is the chamber volume and γ is an elastic constant which is related to the rigidity of chamber wall. We also found that the period and the pattern of oscillation of the conduit flow primarily depend on a quantity defined by LV_ch/r⁴, where L is the conduit length and r is the conduit radius.  相似文献   

基于提升算法和百分位数软阈值的小波去噪技术   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

王典  刘财  刘洋  刘国昌 《地球物理学进展》2008,23(4):1124-1130

在地震勘探领域,随机噪声一直是影响地震信号信噪比的主要因素之一,如何从被干扰的地震信号中有效去除随机噪声并保护有用信号具有重要的意义.针对经典小波变换在计算效率方面的缺陷,本文推荐应用提升算法实现第二代小波变换的构建,分析和对比了提升算法(Lifting Scheme)下不同小波变换方法的特性,选取更加符合小波域去噪原理的CDF 9/7双正交小波变换作为基本算法,同时应用了简单、有效的百分位数(Percentiles)软阈值进行信噪分离.通过理论模型处理,本方法可以在去噪能力和保护有用信号之间找到很好的平衡点.实际剖面的处理效果表明,此方法不仅能有效的滤除随机噪声,而且很好地保护有用信号,提高地震数据分析的精确性.  相似文献