Implications of Japan’s long term climate mitigation target and the relevance of uncertain nuclear policy     

Diego Silva Herran  Shinichiro Fujimori  Mikiko Kainuma 《Climate Policy》2019,19(9):1117-1131

Achieving long-term climate mitigation goals in Japan faces several challenges, starting with the uncertain nuclear power policy after the 2011 earthquake, the uncertain availability and progress of energy technologies, as well as energy security concerns in light of a high dependency on fuel imports. The combined weight of these challenges needs to be clarified in terms of the energy system and macroeconomic impacts. We applied a general equilibrium energy economic model to assess these impacts on an 80% emission reduction target by 2050 considering several alternative scenarios for nuclear power deployment, technology availability, end use energy efficiency, and the price of fossil fuels. We found that achieving the mitigation target was feasible for all scenarios, with considerable reductions in total energy consumption (39%–50%), higher shares of low-carbon sources (43%–72% compared to 15%), and larger shares of electricity in the final energy supply (51%–58% compared to 42%). The economic impacts of limiting nuclear power by 2050 (3.5% GDP loss) were small compared to the lack of carbon capture and storage (CCS) (6.4% GDP loss). Mitigation scenarios led to an improvement in energy security indicators (trade dependency and diversity of primary energy sources) even in the absence of nuclear power. Moreover, preliminary analysis indicates that expanding the range of renewable energy resources can lower the macroeconomic impacts of the long term target considerably, and thus further in depth analysis is needed on this aspect.

Key policy insights

• For Japan, an emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 is feasible without nuclear power or CCS.

• The macroeconomic impact of such a 2050 target was largest without CCS, and smallest without nuclear power.

• Energy security indicators improved in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline.

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Methane emission from coal and associated strata samples     

G. R. Barker-Read  S. A. Radchenko 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》1989,7(2):101-126

Summary This article discusses methods for providing a reliable forecast of the gas-dynamic behaviour of coal seams and adjacent strata. It shows that the ash content of carbonaceous materials determines their sorptive capacity (a universally applicable expression is presented for calculating the methane content of a sample) whilst the rate of methane desorption is a function of the degree of geological disturbance, i.e. the number and distribution of the macropores and fractures in the sample. This effect becomes less important as the sample ash content increases and effectively disappears above a certain value for high permeability materials.The quantity sorption-kinetic characteristic is shown to be a reliable means for quantifying methane emission behaviour. Large variations in coal sorption-kinetic characteristics are shown to occur over short distances as the geological structure of the seam changes, both vertically and horizontally. Consequently, sorption-kinetic characteristics may be used to predict the general level of methane emission from the seam and to quantify the risk of outburst inherent in disturbed areas of coal seams.  相似文献   

Production of N2O,CH4, and CO2 from soils in the tropical savanna during the dry season     

W. M. Hao  D. Scharffe  P. J. Crutzen  E. Sanhueza 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1988,7(1):93-105

Emissions of N₂O, CH₄, and CO₂ from soils at two sites in the tropical savanna of central Venezuela were determined during the dry season in February 1987. Measured arithmetic mean fluxes of N₂O, CH₄, and CO₂ from undisturbed soil plots to the atmosphere were 2.5×10⁹, 4.3×10¹⁰, and 3.0×10¹³ molecules cm^-2 s^-1, respectively. These fluxes were not significantly affected by burning the grass layer. Emissions of N₂O increased fourfold after simulated rainfall, suggesting that production of N₂O in savanna soils during the rainy season may be an important source for atmospheric N₂O. The CH₄ flux measurements indicate that these savanna soils were not a sink, but a small source, for atmospheric methane. Fluxes of CO₂ from savanna soils increased ninefold two hours after simulated rainfall, and remained three times higher than normal after 16 hours. More research is needed to clarify the significance of savannas in the global cycles of N₂O, CH₄, CO₂, and other trace gases, especially during the rainy season.  相似文献   

不连续岩体变形破坏过程中AE的空间演化与意义     

曾正文  马瑾 《工程地质学报》1994,2(1):46-53

通过一些典型节理化岩体模型变形破坏过程中的AE事件的定位分析和破裂面形态的研究,探讨了不连续岩体变形破坏过程的空间演化特征。结果表明:单节理岩体变形破坏的空间动态特征受节理角控制,随着节理角从小变大,岩体的变形破坏方式从AE在局部集中的突发式失稳向AE弥漫于整个节理层面的类似渐进式的破坏形式发展；失稳破裂面从简单的整体状岩-膏界面变成形态复杂的层内复合破裂面；复杂节理岩体的变形破坏受一条（组）主导构造控制,强AE事件集中发生在不连续构造交汇部位,在包含多条主构造的岩体模型中最终失稳破裂面只与最后阶段AE的位置一致。  相似文献   

岩石摩擦-滑动中的声发射b值动态特征及其地震学意义     

曾正文  马瑾  马胜利  许秀琴 《地球物理学进展》1993,(4)

双剪试验的结果表明,岩石摩擦滑动过程中的AE b 值动态曲线可归纳为锯齿状和台柱状两类,分别对应于不规则粘滑和规则粘滑.滑动瞬间滑面上摩擦系数变化△μ的分布决定岩石的滑动方式,不均匀分布易发生不规则粘滑.均匀分布易引起规则粘滑;破裂和滑动是摩擦滑动过程中的两类AE 机制,两类AE 的能量分别与破裂面面积及△μ成正比.研究结果提示,平直光滑的地震断层可能显示出特征地震的发震特点.  相似文献   

断裂系扩展过程与地球物理场变化特征的实验研究     

张之立  李强 《地球物理学进展》1993,(4)

给出了判断断裂之间有无相互作用的力学判据.为了研究断裂间相互作用对地球物理场的影响,对若干类常见断裂系的扩展过程及扩展过程中的声发射b 值和波速变化进行了模拟实验研究.结果表明,各种断裂系由于相互作用的不同,扩展过程,声发射b 值和波速度化均有明显的不同特征.  相似文献   

Carboxylic monoacids in the air of mayombe forest (Congo): Role of the forest as a source or sink     

Jean Servant  Georges Kouadio  Bernard Cros  Robert Delmas 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1991,12(4):367-380

In the tropical rain forests of the Congo during the dry season, from June to September 1987, carboxylic acid partial pressures (P _gas) in the air above the canopy, at ground level, and at the boundary layer, were estimated from water samples such as fog and rainwater. The concentrations of these acids were also measured in the sap of tree leaves. Tree leaves act as a sink or as a source if the acid P _gas is greater of lower than the acid concentrations in molecular form in sap. For each of these soluble gases, there is a value of P _gas where the exchange is nul. This is called the compensation point. Values of the compensation point for some tree leaves were evaluated according to Henry's law. Henry's law coefficients at ppm levels were redetermined for formic (HCOOH), acetic (CH₃COOH), propionic (CH₃CH₂COOH), and isobutyric (CH₃CH(CH₃)COOH) acids.By comparison of P _gas and compensation points, it is concluded that the forest was a potential source for these acids. The soil-or the litter-acts as a significant source of a carboxylic acid of C₃ or C₄ atoms in the aliphatic chain. This carboxylic acid, not yet fully characterized, could play an important role in the rain acidity in forested zones of the equatorial areas.The direct emission of these carboxylic acids by vegetation was the main source in the boundary layer above the forest. The average emissions were 3.1×10⁹, 7.8×10⁹, and 8.4×10⁹ molecules cm^-2 s^-1 for HCOOH, CH₃COOH, and CH₃CH₂COOH, respectively. The savanna is an exogenous source of HCOOH and CH₃CH₂COOH during moderately rainy days for 30% of the time. The ozonolysis of isoprene seems to be a small source of HCOOH.  相似文献   

小试金光谱法同时测定地质样品中超痕量铂钯金   总被引：9，自引：2，他引：9  

林玉南  沈振兴 《岩矿测试》1991,10(4):247-253

用小试金光谱法同时测定地质样品中低至0·x×10~(-9)级Pt、Pd和Au,包括先用小试金熔炼和灰吹预富集10g样品中的Pt、Pd和Au于1mg的银合粒中,然后把银合粒装入石墨电极同锇-锑合金(ω(Os)=0.06)一起激发,以发射光谱法同时测定它们的含量。小试金法类同经典火试金,但采用纯化过的2PbCO_3·Pb(OH)_2(Pt、Pd和Au的含量皆<0.05 ×10~(-9)代替商品PbO,并且用50ml高铝坩埚在950℃进行熔炼。方法的检出限是Pt0.2×10~(-9),Pd和Au均为0.1×10~(-9)。对于3×10~(-9)的含量,全过程的相对标准偏差(％)是Pt15,Pd11,Au9。此法快速、简便,适用于地质物料的分析。  相似文献   

破裂岩石的电子发射与压缩原子模型   总被引：16，自引：5，他引：16       下载免费PDF全文

郭自强  尤峻汉 《地球物理学报》1989,32(2):173-177

本文根据压缩原子模型提出岩石在高压及破裂过程中产生自由电子的一种可能机制。根据这种机制可在半定量水平上较为满意地解释岩石破裂中的电子发射、光辐射和岩石的爆炸式破裂。  相似文献   

Anomalous hydrogen emissions from the San Andreas fault observed at the Cienega Winery,central California     

Motoaki Sato  A. J. Sutton  K. A. McGee 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1984,122(2-4):376-391

We began continuous monitoring of H₂ concentration in soil along the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in central California in December 1980, using small H₂/O₂ fuel-cell sensors. Ten monitoring stations deployed to date have shown that anomalous H₂ emissions take place occasionally in addition to diurnal changes. Among the ten sites, the Cienega Winery site has produced data that are characterized by very small diurnal changes, a stable baseline, and remarkably distinct spike-like H₂ anomalies since its installation in July 1982. A major peak appeared on 1–10 November 1982, and another on 3 April 1983, and a medium peak on 1 November 1983. The occurrences of these peaks coincided with periods of very low seismicity within a radius of 50 km from the site. In order to methodically assess how these peaks are related to earthquakes, three H₂ degassing models were examined. A plausible correlational pattern was obtained by using a model that (1) adopts a hemicircular spreading pattern of H₂ along an incipient fracture plane from the hypocenter of an earthquake, (2) relies on the FeO–H₂O reaction for H₂ generation, and (3) relates the accumulated amount of H₂ to the mass of serpentinization of underlying ophiolitic rocks; the mass was tentatively assumed to be proportional to the seismic energy of the earthquake.  相似文献