测震学多项指标综合预测概率分析     

顾瑾平  钱家栋  王琤琤 《地震》2001,21(2):46-52

通过对测震学各单项指标的预测效能调研，为进一步提取前兆信息，选择了7项测震学指标：频次、地震蠕变、6值、缺震、η值、GL值和调制比，进行综合概率分析。7项指标对关注地区的全时空扫描并考虑了空间单元异常与中强震地点对应的模糊关系，得到指标在各空间单元异常后发生中强震的条件概率。根据历史上每个单项指标的预报效能求计算综合概率时的指标权重，按贝叶斯定律得到相应不同指标在不同时间窗和不同空间单元时中强震发生的加权综合概率。计算结果（1970年以来）表明，对华北地区和川滇地区这一综合概率方法预测效能的R值评估超过0.5。  相似文献   

Precise determination of focal parameters for July 20, 1995 M_L=4.1 earthquake sequence in the Huailai basin     

许向彤  陈运泰  王培德 《地震学报(英文版)》2001,14(3):237-250

IntroductionSince the late 1970s, the quickly developed global digital seismograph network has been providing high quality recordings of large earthquakes in global scale, based on which digital seismology has made great progress. Compared with large earthquakes, moderate and small sized shocks have more frequent occurrence, and comprise clues to geological tectonics and tectonic stress field in a region. Preceding and following a large earthquake, usually occur numbers of small events that im…  相似文献   

环境与发展中的南北关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

田亚平  徐慧 《世界地理研究》2001,10(1):84-90

在环境与发展的问题上，发达国家与发展中国家之间存在着一种既利益相关又矛盾对立，既有合作又有斗争的相互关系，尤其是围绕温室气体排放和环境贸易问题的合作谈判始终伴随着激烈的南北冲突，作为发展中国家的环境大国，面对环境与发展的国际合作趋势和来自发达国家的挑战，应该采取积极对策，一方面积极开展环境外交，围绕斗争，争取利益，维护主权；另一方面加强环境对策及其理论研究，完善自身环境管理机制，为促进环境与发展的南北合作创造条件。  相似文献   

中心地体系与水系分形结构的相似性分析——关于人-地对称关系的一个理论探讨   总被引：10，自引：4，他引：10  

陈彦光  刘继生 《地理科学进展》2001,20(1):81-88

以城市体系与水系的分形结构相似性为实例,探讨人文地理系统与自然地理系统的对称性及其破缺特征。首先建立城市人口—河流长度、城区面积—流域面积、 (某一级别的 )城市数目— (某一等级的 )河流数目等测度对应关系 ;然后证明基于中心地理论的Beckmann城镇等级—规模模型与 Horton水系构成第一、第二定律数理同构,关于城市人口—城区面积的异速生长关系模型与关于主河道长度—流域面积的几何测度关系模型以及 Horton水系构成的第二、第三定律数理同构 ;进而提出 :城市体系与水系分形结构的相似性实质上是自然—人文地理系统的对称性,只是这种对称关系存在一定程度的破缺,地理系统的演化目标之一似乎是要重建大自然的对称律。  相似文献   

应用遥感数据研究中国植被生态系统与气候的关系   总被引：48，自引：2，他引：48  

赵茂盛  符淙斌  延晓冬  温刚 《地理学报》2001,56(3):287-296

应用1982-1994年NOAA/AVHRR的归一化植被指数（NDVI）资料和587个气象台站的数据对我国不同类型植被生态系统和气候的关系进行研究，首先将我国的植被类型划分为21类，在此基础上分别研究了不同时间尺度下我国不同区域，不同植被类型和气候的关系。结果表明：在多年平均状态下，植被生态系统NDVI水平主要受水分条件的影响；年内变化上，温度对植被生态系统季相变化化起着比降水略大的作用，年降水量造成了植被季相响应的差异，在年际变化上，分别研究了4个季节和整个生长期尺度上的关系，一般情形为温度和降水对植被的年际波动起着大致相反的作用，不同植被类型在不同的生长时期（季节）对气候的变化响应方式也不同，发现在植被的生长期，我国南方和北方的植被生态系统对温度和降水的响应方式相反；同时存在2个植被-气候敏感区，分别为我国北方的典型草原到森林的过渡区和云南中部部分区域。  相似文献   

A study of design spectra based on attenuation relationship of ground motion     

NI Yong-jun  ZHU Xi 《地震学报(英文版)》2001,14(6):705-710

In recent years, more and more studies are focused on the performance in seismic design instead of the strength of structures. People have realized that the structure deformation (displacement) can describe the damage more properly and directly than the strength (force). The displacement design spectra need to be constructed within more wide range of the period and the damping for the displacement-based seismic design.  相似文献   

赣南烟草化学组成及岩土地球化学特征   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

周国华  朱立新  喻劲松  王徽  马生明  汪振立  申昌优  廖万琪 《物探与化探》2001,25(1):22-28

通过赣州地区14个典型烟草产区的岩石、土壤和烟叶地球化学调查和研究,初步评价研究区烟草产地的土壤营养状况,探讨烟草内在品质与基岩、土壤元素地球化学特征间的关系,为研究区烟草施肥及种植规划提供科学依据。  相似文献   

Study on the relationship between geothermal exploitation and seismic activity in Xi’an region     

Wu Fu-chun  Song Li-sheng  Zhu Xing-guo  Wang Feng  Jing Bei-ke  Dong Xing-hong  Fang Wei  Zuo Yong-qing 《地震学报(英文版)》2001,14(4):434-439

Based on the analysis of the induced earthquakes in China and abroad, we get some ideas about earthquakes induced by pumping water out of a well or injecting water into a well. The induced earthquakes usually occur near the well, and they are generally small earthquakes. The earthquake sources are shallow, and they belong to the main shock-after shock type of earthquake or the swarm-type of earthquake. The magnitude and the quantity of the induced earthquakes obviously depend on the pressure and the quantity of water pumped or injected. These earthquakes happen as soon as pumping or injecting occurrence, or after ten or twenty days, they may occur at the time of injecting mud or injecting high pressure water when a well is being drilled, or at the time when the ground water is being normally exploited. A large quantity of hot water has been exploited since 1990 in Xi’an, and the quantity of water exploited has been increasing year by year, as a result the groundwater level has been dropping with the water pumped out and the water level is high in summer and low in winter. The earthquakes in Xi’an region belong to the solitary-type and they spread outside Xi’an city where the wells are concentrated but no earthquake happens. The seismic frequency and the energy released have no relation with the quantity of water exploitation or the water level in the well. It is considered that geothermal exploitation does not induce earthquakes in and around Xi’an because of its specially geological condition. Foundation item: Project sponsored by the Landslide Office of Shaanxi Province and Society of Disaster Reduction of Shaanxi Province.  相似文献   

River flow mass exponents with fractal channel networks and rainfall     

Brent M. Troutman  Thomas M. Over   《Advances in water resources》2001,24(9-10)

An important problem in hydrologic science is understanding how river flow is influenced by rainfall properties and drainage basin characteristics. In this paper we consider one approach, the use of mass exponents, in examining the relation of river flow to rainfall and the channel network, which provides the primary conduit for transport of water to the outlet in a large basin. Mass exponents, which characterize the power-law behavior of moments as a function of scale, are ideally suited for defining scaling behavior of processes that exhibit a high degree of variability or intermittency. The main result in this paper is an expression relating the mass exponent of flow resulting from an instantaneous burst of rainfall to the mass exponents of spatial rainfall and that of the network width function. Spatial rainfall is modeled as a random multiplicative cascade and the channel network as a recursive replacement tree; these fractal models reproduce certain types of self-similar behavior seen in actual rainfall and networks. It is shown that under these modeling assumptions the scaling behavior of flow mirrors that of rainfall if rainfall is highly variable in space, and on the other hand flow mirrors the structure of the network if rainfall is not so highly variable.  相似文献   

Inelastic spectra for displacement-based seismic design     

B. Borzi  G. M. Calvi  A. S. Elnashai  E. Faccioli  J. J. Bommer 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2001,21(1):103

In recognition of the emergence of displacement-based seismic design as a potentially more rational approach than force-based techniques, this paper addresses derivation of inelastic displacement spectra and associated topics. A well-constrained earthquake strong-motion dataset is used to derive inelastic displacement spectra, displacement reduction factors and ductility–damping relationships. These are in a format amenable for use in design and assessment of structures with a wide range of response characteristics.  相似文献