高维PP时间序列分析在地震预报中的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王琼  朱令人 《地震工程学报》2003,25(2):103-111

将投影寻踪(PP)与高维时间序列分析结合起来，建立了地震PP综合预测模型。并选取祁连山地区作研究区，做了未来三个月内最大震级的短期预测，经展望式检验，合格率(预测误差≤0．5或≤10％)≥80％。中根据实际需要提出建立一定震级门限(M≥4．0)的预测具有更好的效果。本预测模型还可增加自变量、维数和改变时间尺度，并运用到其他领域中。  相似文献   

Weibull分布的信息熵在地震预报中的应用研究          下载免费PDF全文

范琦 《地震工程学报》2003,25(2):125-130

根据统计分布与信息熵理论，定义了震级信息熵Hm和地震间隔时间信息熵Ht，并推导了它们的计算公式。通过时空扫描和计算，发现强震前1～3年Hm和Ht出现低值异常，与地震有较好的对应关系，可以作为一组中期或中短期预测指标。  相似文献   

天津地区井水位年变异常研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

刘喜兰  郑文俊  金艳  孙贝珠  陈化然 《地震地质》2003,25(2):298-306

近年来 ,中国地震预报学者开始关注井水位的年变异常及其中短期预测意义问题 ,但井水位年变异常判别采用动态图像的定性对比方法 ,表现出一定的随意性。针对这种现状 ,文中引进概率论与数理统计中的随机过程理论与时间序列分析技术 (盛骤等 ,1989) ,提出了“井水位动态年周期法”与“相对时段速率比较法” ,解决了井水位年变异常的定量识别方法 ,并应用到天津井网 2 1口井的观测数据 (1985年以来 )分析中 ,证明了该方法的可行性与有效性。分析结果表明 ,天津井网中有 7口井在首都圈邻区 4次中强 (MS≥ 5 .8)地震之前 ,表现出 17井次的井水位年变异常 ,且多在震前 1.5～6个月内出现 ,从而再次证明了井水位年变异常具有一定的中短期预测意义  相似文献   

面波群速度频散计算中滤波的数值实验研究     

黄尚飞  余演波  赵红梅  常郁 《华南地震》2003,23(2):63-67

面波群速度计算中容易出现长周期部分时间域分辨率低的问题，因此，如何提高时间域的分辨率很重要。本文将引入等误差滤波的方法就改进群速度计算中滤波效果进行数值试验。结果表明，采用等误差滤波能明显提高群速度长周期部分的分辨率，对准确地测定长周期部分的群速度有重要意义。  相似文献   

Discussion on the feature of strong earthquake: Orderly distribution in time, space and intensity before the Western Kunlun Mountain Pass M=8.1 earthquake     

张晓东  张永仙  吕梅梅  余素荣 《地震学报(英文版)》2003,16(6)

Introduction The Western Kunlun Mountain Pass M=8.1 earthquake occurred on November 14, 2001 is the other M=8 earthquake occurred 50 years after Dangxiong, Tibet M=8.0 earthquake in Chinese mainland. The earthquake has caused the attention of the seismologists in the following aspects: 1) The fracture length is more than 400 km, which is far away from the estimated length by the statistic empirical function between the magnitude and the fracture length (WANG, et al, 2002); 2) The aftersh…  相似文献   

Monsoonal precipitation variation in the East Asia since A.D. 1840 ——Tree-ring evidences from China and Korea     

刘禹  Won-Kyu Park  蔡秋芳  Jung-Wook Seo  Hyun-Sook Jung 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2003,46(10)

The main characteristic of the East Asian climate is the monsoon system. Plenty of studies have demonstrated that the Asian monsoon system plays a crucial role in the global climate sys- tem [1-4]. The Asian summer monsoon can be divided into two parts, t…  相似文献   

Tensor time domain electromagnetic resistivity measurements at Ngatamariki geothermal field, New Zealand     

George F. Risk  T. Grant Caldwell  Hugh M. Bibby 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2003,127(1-2):33-54

Experimental measurements in the Ngatamariki geothermal field, North Island, New Zealand were made to test the applicability of the time domain electromagnetic method for detailed investigation of the resistivity structure within a geothermal field. Low-frequency square wave signals were transmitted through three grounded bipole current sources sited about 8 km from the measurement lines. Despite high levels of electrical noise, transient electric field vectors could be determined reliably for times between 0.02 and 3.3 s after each step in the source current. Instantaneous apparent resistivity tensors were then calculated. Apparent resistivity pseudosections along the two measurement lines show smooth variations of resistivity from site to site. Over most of the field the images consistently show a three-layer resistivity structure with a conductive middle layer (3–10 Ωm) representing the conductive upper part of the thermal reservoir. A deep-seated region of low resistivity in the northwest of the field may indicate a conductive structure at about 1 km associated with a deeper diorite intrusion. Measurements sited closer than about 100 m to drillholes appear to have been disturbed by metallic casing in the holes. A change in resistivity structure in the east of the field may indicate a major geological or hydrothermal boundary.  相似文献   

Identification of soil degradation during earthquake excitations by Bayesian inference     

Jianye Ching  Steven D. Glaser 《地震工程与结构动力学》2003,32(6):845-869

A Bayesian inference approach is introduced to identify soil degradation behaviours at four downhole array sites. The approach of inference is based on a parametric time‐varying infinite impulse response filter model. The approach is shown to be adaptive to the changes of filter parameters and noise amplitudes. Four sites, including the Lotung (Taiwan), Chiba (Japan), Garner Valley (California), and Treasure Island (California) sites with downhole seismic arrays are analysed. Our results show two major types of soil degradation behaviour: the well‐known strain‐dependent softening, and reduction in stiffness that is not instantaneously recoverable. It is also found that both types of soil degradation are more pronounced in sandy soils than in clayey soils. The mechanism for the second type of soil degradation is not yet clear to the authors and suggested to be further studied. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Predictive instantaneous optimal control of elastic structures during earthquakes     

Kevin K. F. Wong  Rong Yang 《地震工程与结构动力学》2003,32(14):2161-2177

A predictive instantaneous optimal control (PIOC) algorithm is proposed for controlling the seismic responses of elastic structures. This algorithm compensates for the time delay that happens in practical control applications by predicting the structural response over a period that equals the time delay, and by substituting the predicted response in the instantaneous optimal control (IOC) algorithm. The unique feature of this proposed PIOC algorithm is that it is simple and at the same time compensates for the time delay very effectively. Numerical examples of single degree of freedom structures are presented to compare the performance of PIOC and IOC systems for various time delay magnitudes. Results show that a time delay always causes degradation of control efficiency, but PIOC can greatly reduce this degradation compared to IOC. The effects of the structure's natural periods and the choice of control gains on the degradation induced by the time delay are also analyzed. Results show that shorter natural periods and larger control gains are both more sensitive and more serious to the degradation of control efficiency. Finally, a practical application of PIOC is performed on a six‐story moment‐resisting steel frame. It is demonstrated that PIOC contributes significantly to maintain stability in multiple degree of freedom structures, and at the same time PIOC has a satisfactory control performance. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Predictive instantaneous optimal control of inelastic structures during earthquakes     

Kevin K. F. Wong  Rong Yang 《地震工程与结构动力学》2003,32(14):2179-2195

A new inelastic structural control algorithm is proposed by incorporating the force analogy method (FAM) with the predictive instantaneous optimal control (PIOC) algorithm. While PIOC is very effective in compensating for the time delay for elastic structures, the FAM is highly efficient in performing the inelastic analysis. Unlike conventional inelastic analysis methods of changing stiffness, the FAM analyzes structures by varying the structural displacement field, and therefore the state transition matrix needs to be computed only once. This greatly simplifies the computation and makes inelastic analysis readily applicable to the PIOC algorithm. The proposed algorithm compensates for the time delay that happens in practical control systems by predicting the inelastic structural response over a period that equals the magnitude of the time delay. A one‐story frame with both strain‐hardening and strain‐softening inelastic characteristics is analyzed using this algorithm. Results show that the proposed control algorithm is feasibile for any inelastic structures. While the control efficiency deteriorates with the increase in magnitude of the time delay, the PIOC maintains acceptable performance within a wide range of time delay magnitudes. Finally, a computer model of a six‐story moment‐resisting steel frame is analyzed to show that PIOC has good control results for real inelastic structures. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献