A new method of estimating the ratio between in situ rock stresses and tectonics based on empirical and probabilistic analyses   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

L.I. Gonzlez de Vallejo  T. Hijazo 《Engineering Geology》2008,101(3-4):185-194

This paper describes a new procedure for assessing the ratio between in situ stresses in rock masses by means of K (K = σ_H / σ_v, being σ_H and σ_v principal stress) and tectonics for purposes of engineering geology and rock mechanics. The method combines the use of the logic decision tree and the empirical relationship between the Tectonic Stress Index, TSI, and a series of K in situ values obtained from an extensive database. The decision tree considers geological and geophysical factors affecting stress magnitudes both on the regional and local scale. The TSI index is defined by geological and geomechanical parameters. The method proposed provides an assessment of the magnitude of horizontal stresses of tectonic origin. Results for several regions of Europe are presented and the possible applications of the procedure are discussed.  相似文献   

An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response     

David P. Bacon  Nash’at N. Ahmad  Thomas J. Dunn  Michael C. Monteith  Ananthakrishna Sarma 《Natural Hazards》2008,44(3):317-327

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.  相似文献   

Drought and institutional adaptation in the Great Plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan, 1914–1939     

Gregory P. Marchildon  Suren Kulshreshtha  Elaine Wheaton  Dave Sauchyn 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(3):391-411

Agriculture in the southern Great Plains of Canada has been particularly vulnerable to prolonged episodes of drought. Using climate data and a precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration index, the extent of the region’s exposure to drought is examined. Between 1914 and 1917, the Dry Belt was particularly vulnerable to drought, whereas after 1928, a much larger region known as the Palliser Triangle covering most of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan was much more exposed to drought. These droughts provoked major institutional adaptation, in particular the establishment of the Special Areas Board by the Government of Alberta, and the creation of the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration by the Government of Canada. Both organizations have proved to be relatively permanent public adaptations to the natural hazard of drought in the region. Moreover, these earlier experiences with prolonged drought as well as institution-building may be of value in helping the residents of the Palliser Triangle adapt to predicted climate changes in the future as well as anticipate some of the barriers to effective institutional adaptation.  相似文献   

TBM在不良地质洞条件下的施工技术          下载免费PDF全文

刘大军  张益忠 《探矿工程》2008,35(10):60-65

TBM掘进机以其快速、高效、安全、优质等优点越来越广泛地被应用于隧洞开挖施工中,尤其更适用于深埋超长隧洞,然而在不良地质洞段中TBM掘进缓慢,甚至有卡刀可能,反而不如钻爆法灵活,这就需要根据围岩性状采取特殊技术处理措施,辅以监控量测手段对支护方案进行验证、调整支护措施、修正设计参数等。结合辽宁大伙房输水隧洞工程,总结了在不良地质洞条件下的超前地质预报方法、不良地质段处理措施以及围岩变形监测方法。  相似文献   

PSO-RBFNN模型及其在岩土工程非线性时间序列预测中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

梁桂兰  徐卫亚  何育智  赵延喜 《岩土力学》2008,29(4):995-1000

岩土工程受力变形演化是一个典型的非线性问题,其演化的高度非线性和复杂性,很难用简单的力学、数学模型描述,但可用粒子群优化径向基神经网络对岩土工程应力、位移非线性时间序列进行动态实时预测。网络径向基层的单元数通过均值聚类法确定后,所有其它参数：中心位置、形状参数、网络权值,均通过粒子群优化算法在全局空间优化确定。工程实例应用表明,该模型预测结果准确、精度高,有良好的应用前景。  相似文献   

饱和粉砂不稳定性的试验研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

符新军  赵仲辉 《岩土力学》2008,29(2):381-385

通过对净砂和级配良好粉砂(含10 %粉土)进行一系列三轴固结不排水试验（CU）,研究了粉土、孔隙比和围压对饱和粉砂不稳定性的影响。试验结果表明,净砂与粉砂在不排水剪切条件下均会出现应变软化现象（即不稳定性）。同一围压下脆性指数(IB)随孔隙比增加,但不稳定线的应力比随孔隙比增加而减小。引用等效粒间孔隙比(ege)后,净砂和粉砂在ege-ln p?平面上拥有基本相同的临界状态线。在临界状态理论及等效粒间孔隙比的基础上,提出在同一修正状态参数(?ge)下净砂和级配良好粉砂有相似的不稳定性。  相似文献   

Viewpoint: the interface between scientific advice and fisheries management     

Hoydal  Kjartan 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(4):846-850

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渤海三维海洋温度和海流数值预报   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3  

刘钦政  张建华  刘煜  王旭  李燕  白珊  吴辉碇 《海洋预报》2005,22(Z1):27-34

"十·五"期间,我国开展了三维海洋温度和海流数值预报的业务化研究工作.经过3年的努力,渤海三维海洋温度和海流数值预报系统研制完成,并于2003年10月,开始试预报.本文对该预报系统以及运行情况进行了介绍,并分析了所存在的问题和发展方向.  相似文献   

卫星海洋遥感的发展和预报中心遥感应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王其茂  马超飞  郭茂华 《海洋预报》2005,22(Z1):81-86

本文简要介绍了卫星海洋遥感的发展情况和可获得的海洋气象观测数据,介绍了预报中心卫星遥感的发展历史和现今状况,以及为海洋环境监测和预报提供的海洋遥感信息产品,并给出了部分产品示例.  相似文献   

东海区近海强风预报模式     

杨良华 《海洋预报》1995,12(4):34-42

本文探讨东海区近海强风预报模式，首先介绍建立预报模式的思路和步骤，及使用说明，为了验证强风预报模式和判别条件，用１９８６、１９８７上日本传真天气图进行试报，准确和基本准确度为９１．１％，并给出了１９８９、１９９５年随船试验预报结果，准确和基本准确率为９０％以上。  相似文献