气候系统模式FGOALS-s2对南半球气候的模拟和预估   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

周天军  孙丹  薛峰 《大气科学》2013,37(2):499-517

针对参加“国际耦合模式比较计划”(CMIP5)的IAP/LASG气候系统模式FGOALS-s2,评估了其对南半球气候平均态的模拟能力,在此基础上,预估了未来不同“典型浓度路径”(RCPs)情景下南半球气候的变化特征.对20世纪历史气候模拟结果的分析表明,模式能够合理再现南半球大气环流气候态分布特征,包括6～8月平均(JJA)南半球双西风急流现象,只是模拟的北支急流偏弱、南支急流偏强.未来气候预估试验中,不同RCPs情景下南半球温度变化以增暖为主要特征,陆地增温大于海洋,只有南大西洋—印度洋海盆存在局部变冷.综合四种不同情景,未来随着温室气体浓度的增加,南半球中纬度高压带将显著加强,绕极低压带将加深.降水呈现出增多的特征,12月到来年2月平均(DJF)强于JJA,海洋强于陆地,只有南印度洋和南太平洋中部局部降水减少.未来不同RCPs情景下,马斯克林高压表现出先减弱后增强的特征,而澳大利亚高压则呈现出先增强后减弱的特征.南极涛动(AAO)的变化表现为:RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下AAO都表现为先增强后减弱,RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下都为一致的增强趋势,这主要与四种情景中模拟的未来温度变化结构不同有关.例如在RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下,南半球高纬高层温度增暖趋势小于中纬地区,使得经向温度梯度增大,中纬度西风加强,60°S以南位势高度减小,最终令AAO增强.  相似文献   

我国华南3月份降水异常的可能影响因子分析   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  

李宏毅  林朝晖  宋燕  陈红  许建玉 《大气科学》2013,37(3):719-730

利用1951～2005年华南地区3月份的降水资料、NOAA海温资料、Ni?o3.4指数和NCEP再分析资料,分析了华南3月份降水异常与同期环流场、全球海温场的关系,从环流和海温的角度揭示了华南3月份降水异常的可能原因。结果表明,当华南3月份降水偏多(少)时,在对流层中低层,北太平洋海区存在气旋(反气旋)性环流异常,西太平洋及南海海面上存在反气旋(气旋)性环流异常,这样的环流异常有利(不利)于东南暖湿气流与北方东部异常冷空气在华南地区形成水汽辐合,导致降水显著增多(减少)。进一步的分析表明,ENSO和北印度洋及南海附近海温是影响华南3月份降水异常的重要外强迫因子,ENSO对华南3月降水异常的影响是通过影响春季西太平洋副热带高压和低层风场异常实现的,而北印度洋及南海附近海温对华南3月降水异常的影响则是通过垂直环流场异常和低层风场以及西太平洋副热带高压异常来实现的。  相似文献   

2011～2012年冬季欧亚大陆低温严寒事件与平流层北极涛动异常下传的影响   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

兰晓青  陈文 《大气科学》2013,37(4):863-872

利用NCEP-NCAR 再分析资料分析了2011～2012 年冬季发生在欧亚大陆的一次异常低温严寒事件的大气环流演变过程以及可能的成因。这次低温事件,主要出现在2012 年1 月下旬至2 月上旬,持续大约3 周左右,非常强的低温异常覆盖了几乎整个欧洲以及东亚的西伯利亚、蒙古国和我国东北、华北等地。这次低温事件的演变与对流层北极涛动(AO)由正位相转变为负位相的时间相匹配,意味着AO 可能发挥重要作用。进一步分析表明,前期行星波的异常上传导致平流层发生爆发性增温现象,极夜急流减弱,AO 位相首先在平流层由正变负;在2～3 周左右的时间内,平流层AO 异常信号逐渐下传,使得对流层AO 也转为负位相;随后,乌拉尔山阻塞高压异常发展,极区的冷空气不断向南爆发,先后在东亚和欧洲造成剧烈的降温,导致低温严寒事件。因此,考虑平流层环流的异常可能有助于提高欧亚大陆冬季低温严寒事件的预测能力。  相似文献   

干、湿环境下中尺度对流系统发生的环流背景和地面特征分析   总被引：10，自引：2，他引：8  

郑淋淋  孙建华 《大气科学》2013,37(4):891-904

对2007～2010 年暖季(6～9 月)发生在江淮和黄淮流域46 个对流天气过程的环流背景和地面特征进行了统计研究。根据整层可降水量小于或大于等于50 mm 将这些个例发生的环境分成干环境(10 个个例)和湿环境(36 个个例)。干环境下发生强对流的天气形势可以分为槽后型和副高边缘型,湿环境下的天气形势可分为槽前型、副高边缘型和槽后型,湿环境下有明显的暖湿区配合。湿环境下槽前型发生的概率最高,地面系统较为复杂,有静止锋、倒槽、冷锋和暖锋,而干环境下在本研究的个例中无槽前型发生。干、湿环境下副高边缘型的对流,从地面到500 hPa 都发生在副高后部的“S”流型的拐弯处,但部分湿环境个例低层有切变线。干环境下槽后型的发生概率较高,而湿环境下发生概率则相对较少。由这些研究表明,干、湿环境下强对流系统的触发和维持机制存在明显的差异。  相似文献   

Poleward expansion of the hadley circulation in CMIP5 simulations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

胡永云  陶利军  刘骥平 《大气科学进展》2013,30(3):790-795

Observational analyses have demonstrated that the Hadley circulation has expanded poleward in recent decades. Important issues are what caused the widening of the Hadley circulation and whether the observed widening is related to anthropogenic forcing. In the present study, we use currently available simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) to analyze changes in the width of the Hadley circulation. It is found that CMIP5 historical simulations with greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing generate a total widening of ～0.15o0.06o in latitude (10 yr)-1 for the period 1979--2005, and the widening in CMIP5 historical simulations with all forcings is ～0.17o0.06o per decade. Similar to that in CMIP3, the simulated poleward expansion in CMIP5 is much weaker than the observational reanalyses. In CMIP5 projection simulations for the 21st century, magnitudes of widening of the Hadley circulation increase with radiative forcing. For the extreme projected radiative forcing of RCP8.5, the total annual-mean widening of the Hadley circulation is ～0.27o0.04o(10 yr)-1 in the 21st century. Although CMIP5 underestimates observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation, the results of this study suggest that the observed trends in the width of the Hadley circulation are caused by anthropogenic forcing and that increasing GHGs play an important role in the observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation, in addition to other forcings emphasized in previous studies.  相似文献   

Oceanic climatology in the coupled model FGOALS-g2: Improvements and biases   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

林鹏飞  俞永强  刘海龙 《大气科学进展》2013,30(3):819-840

The present study examines simulated oceanic climatology in the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2) forced by historical external forcing data. The oceanic temperatures and circulations in FGOALS-g2 were found to be comparable to those observed, and substantially improved compared to those simulated by the previous version, FGOALS-g1.0. Compared with simulations by FGOALS-g1.0, the shallow mixed layer depths were better captured in the eastern Atlantic and Pacific Ocean in FGOALS-g2. In the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the cold biases of SST were about 1°C–5°C smaller in FGOALS-g2. The associated sea ice distributions and their seasonal cycles were more realistic in FGOALS-g2. The pattern of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was better simulated in FGOALS-g2, although its magnitude was larger than that found in observed data. The simulated Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport was about 140 Sv through the Drake Passage, which is close to that observed. Moreover, Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) was better captured in FGOALS-g2. However, large SST cold biases (>3°C) were still found to exist around major western boundary currents and in the Barents Sea, which can be explained by excessively strong oceanic cold advection and unresolved processes owing to the coarse resolution. In the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the cold biases were partly related to the excessive loss of heat from the ocean. Along the eastern coast in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the warm biases were due to overestimation of shortwave radiation. In the Indian Ocean and Southern Ocean, the surface fresh biases were mainly due to the biases of precipitation. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the surface fresh biases (>2 psu) were mainly caused by excessive precipitation and oceanic advection. In the Indo-Pacific Ocean, fresh biases were also found to dominate in the upper 1000 m, except in the northeastern Indian Ocean. There were warm and salty biases (3°C–4°C and 1–2 psu) from the surface to the bottom in the Labrador Sea, which might be due to large amounts of heat transport and excessive evaporation, respectively. For vertical structures, the maximal biases of temperature and salinity were found to be located at depths of >600 m in the Arctic Ocean, and their values exceeded 4°C and 2 psu, respectively.  相似文献   

冬季北太平洋风暴轴异常及其与东亚大气环流的关系   总被引：9，自引：5，他引：4  

顾沛澍  朱伟军  刘鸣彦  高洁  曾鼎文 《气象科学》2013,33(6):610-618

利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,应用滤波方差、相关分析、合成分析等研究了1963年冬季至2011年冬季北太平洋风暴轴的时空演变特征,并探讨了风暴轴活动强弱与东亚—北太平洋大气环流的关系。结果表明：与1980s后期风暴轴活动显著增强相比,近10 a来风暴轴活动又进入较气候平均水平偏低的阶段,且风暴轴主体位置有着向东北、西南两侧的振荡现象。风暴轴活动强（弱）年,东亚地区近地面温度偏高（低）、对流层低层阿留申低压和西伯利亚高压偏弱（强）、中国东部及日本上空850 hPa北风减弱（加强）;对流层中层东亚大槽减弱北缩（加深南进）、对流层高层西风急流减弱（加强）。风暴轴活动与冬季影响中国的冷空气活动次数相关关系显著。  相似文献   

The Chinese comet observation in AD 773 January     

J. Chapman  M. Csikszentmihalyi  R. Neuhuser 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2014,335(9):964-967

The strong ¹⁴C increase in the year AD 774/5 detected in one German and two Japanese trees was recently suggested to have been caused by an impact of a comet onto Earth and a deposition of large amounts of ¹⁴C into the atmosphere (Liu et al. 2014). The authors supported their claim using a report of a historic Chinese observation of a comet ostensibly colliding with Earth's atmosphere in AD 773 January. We show here that the Chinese text presented by those authors is not an original historic text, but that it is comprised of several different sources. Moreover, the translation presented in Liu et al. is misleading and inaccurate. We give the exact Chinese wordings and our English translations. According to the original sources, the Chinese observed a comet in mid January 773, but they report neither a collision nor a large coma, just a long tail. Also, there is no report in any of the source texts about “dust rain in the daytime” as claimed by Liu et al. (2014), but simply a normal dust storm. Ho (1962) reports sightings of this comet in China on AD 773 Jan 15 and/or 17 and in Japan on AD 773 Jan 20 (Ho 1962). At the relevant historic time, the Chinese held that comets were produced within the Earth's atmosphere, so that it would have been impossible for them to report a “collision” of a comet with Earth's atmosphere. The translation and conclusions made by Liu et al. (2014) are not supported by the historical record. Therefore, postulating a sudden increase in ¹⁴C in corals off the Chinese coast precisely in mid January 773 (Liu et al. 2014) is not justified given just the ²³⁰Th dating for AD 783 ± 14. (© 2014 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

Multiperiodic semiregular variable stars in the ASAS data base: A pilot study     

I. Fuentes‐Morales  N. Vogt 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2014,335(10):1072-1077

Based on a search for multi‐periodic variability among the semi‐regular red variable stars in the database of the All Sky Automated Survey (ASAS), a sample of 72 typical examples is presented. Their period analysis was performed using the Discrete Fourier Transform. In 41 stars we identified two significant periods each, simultaneously present, while the remaining 31 cases revealed even three such periods per star. They occur in a range roughly between 50 and 3000 days. Inter‐relationships between these periods were analyzed using the “double period diagram” which compares adjacent periods, and the so‐called “Petersen diagram”, the period ratio vs. the shorter period. In both diagrams we could identify six sequences of accumulation of the period values. For five of these sequences (containing 97 % of all data points) we found an almost perfect coincidence with those of previous studies which were based on very different samples of semiregular red variables. Therefore, existence and locations of these sequences in the diagrams seem to be universal features, which appear in any data set of semi‐regularly variable red giants of the AGB; we conclude that they are caused by different pulsation modes as the typical and consistent properties of similar stellar AGB configurations. Stellar pulsations can be considered as the principal cause of the observed periodic variability of these stars, and not binary, rotation of a spotted surface or other possible reasons suggested in the literature. (© 2014 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

脉冲星射电辐射束半径与周期关系的研究     

魏丁丁  游霄鹏 《天文学报》2014,(6)

脉冲星的周期非常稳定.前人通过研究发现脉冲星射电辐射束半径大小应该正比于周期的-1/3或-1/2次方.通过整理收集了87颗信噪比很好的、偏振位置角明显为"S"曲线的脉冲星数据,用脉冲星辐射束几何模型计算得到了每颗脉冲星的辐射束半径及误差.发现脉冲星周期小于0.85 s时,辐射束半径正比于周期的-1/2次方.周期大于0.85 s时,辐射束半径与周期之间并没有明显的幂律关系,但这可能与选择效应有关.当假设脉冲星的磁倾角为90?时,计算得到的辐射束半径随周期分布的下边界正比于周期的-1/2次方,与前人的结论一致.  相似文献