Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to channel erosion uncertainty during extreme flooding          下载免费PDF全文

Jefferson S. Wong  Jim E. Freer  Paul D. Bates  David A. Sear  Elisabeth M. Stephens 《水文研究》2015,29(2):261-279

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilize the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross‐section geometry and channel long‐profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D–2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD‐FP) of the ~1 : 2000 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of simulated scenarios of channel erosional changes were constructed on the basis of a simple velocity‐based model of critical entrainment. A Monte‐Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of this channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected an approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion that enveloped observed erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long‐profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude of event modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead, morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel‐bed rivers such as the one used in this research. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Integrating isolated and riparian wetland modules in the PHYSITEL/HYDROTEL modelling platform: model performance and diagnosis          下载免费PDF全文

Maxime Fossey  Alain N. Rousseau  Fatima Bensalma  Stéphane Savary  Alain Royer 《水文研究》2015,29(22):4683-4702

Mathematical modelling is a well‐accepted framework to evaluate the effects of wetlands on stream flow and watershed hydrology in general. Although the integration of wetland modules into a distributed hydrological model represents a cost‐effective way to make this assessment, the added value brought by landscape‐specific modules to a model's ability to replicate basic hydrograph characteristics remains unclear. The objectives of this paper were the following: (i) to present the adaptation of PHYSITEL (a geographic information system) to parameterize isolated and riparian wetlands; (ii) to describe the integration of specific isolated wetland and riparian wetland modules into HYDROTEL, a distributed hydrological model; and (iii) to evaluate the performance of the updated modelling platform with respect to the capacity of replicating various hydrograph characteristics. To achieve this, two sets of simulations were performed (with and without wetland modules), and the added value was assessed at three river segments of the Becancour River watershed, Quebec, Canada, using six general goodness‐of‐fit indicators and 14 water flow criteria. A sensitivity analysis of the wetland module parameters was performed to characterize their impact on stream flows of the modelled watershed. Results of this study indicate the following: (i) integration of specific wetland modules can slightly increase the capacity of HYDROTEL to replicate basic hydrograph characteristics; and (ii) the updated modelling platform allows for the explicit assessment of the impact of wetlands (e.g. typology and location) on watershed hydrology. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Improved spatial delineation of streambed properties and water fluxes using distributed temperature sensing          下载免费PDF全文

Landon J. S. Halloran  Hamid Roshan  Gabriel C. Rau  Martin S. Andersen  R. Ian Acworth 《水文研究》2016,30(15):2686-2702

A new method was developed for analysing and delineating streambed water fluxes, flow conditions and hydraulic properties using coiled fibre‐optic distributed temperature sensing or closely spaced discrete temperature sensors. This method allows for a thorough treatment of the spatial information embedded in temperature data by creating a matrix visualization of all possible sensor pairs. Application of the method to a 5‐day field dataset reveals the complexity of shallow streambed thermal regimes. To understand how velocity estimates are affected by violations of assumptions of one‐dimensional, saturated, homogeneous flow and to aid in the interpretation of field observations, the method was also applied to temperature data generated by numerical models of common field conditions: horizontal layering, presence of lateral flow and variable streambed saturation. The results show that each condition creates a distinct signature visible in the triangular matrices. The matrices are used to perform a comparison of the behaviour of one‐dimensional analytical heat‐tracing models. The results show that the amplitude ratio‐based method of velocity calculation leads to the most reliable estimates. The minimum sensor spacing required to obtain reliable velocity estimates with discrete sensors is also investigated using field data. The developed method will aid future heat‐tracing studies by providing a technique for visualizing and comparing results from fibre‐optic distributed temperature sensing installations and testing the robustness of analytical heat‐tracing models. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Frequency analysis of nonstationary annual maximum flood series using the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions          下载免费PDF全文

Lei Yan  Lihua Xiong  Dedi Liu  Tiesong Hu  Chong‐Yu Xu 《水文研究》2017,31(1):69-89

The most popular practice for analysing nonstationarity of flood series is to use a fixed single‐type probability distribution incorporated with the time‐varying moments. However, the type of probability distribution could be both complex because of distinct flood populations and time‐varying under changing environments. To allow the investigation of this complex nature, the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions (TTMD) method is proposed in this study by considering the time variations of not only the moments of its component distributions but also the weighting coefficients. Having identified the existence of mixed flood populations based on circular statistics, the proposed TTMD was applied to model the annual maximum flood series of two stations in the Weihe River basin, with the model parameters calibrated by the meta‐heuristic maximum likelihood method. The performance of TTMD was evaluated by different diagnostic plots and indexes and compared with stationary single‐type distributions, stationary mixture distributions and time‐varying single‐type distributions. The results highlighted the advantages of TTMD with physically‐based covariates for both stations. Besides, the optimal TTMD models were considered to be capable of settling the issue of nonstationarity and capturing the mixed flood populations satisfactorily. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A discontinuous finite element suspended sediment transport model for water quality assessments in river networks          下载免费PDF全文

Fabricio Fiengo Pérez  Lieve Sweeck  Marc Elskens  Willy Bauwens 《水文研究》2017,31(9):1804-1816

Suspended sediment plays an important role in the distribution and transport of many pollutants (such as radionuclides) in rivers. Pollutants may adsorb on fine suspended particles (e.g. clay) and spread according to the suspended sediment movement. Hence, the simulation of the suspended sediment mechanism is indispensable for realistic transport modelling. This paper presents and tests a simple mathematical model for predicting the suspended sediment transport in river networks. The model is based on the van Rijn suspended load formula and the advection–diffusion equation with a source or sink term that represents the erosion or deposition fluxes. The transport equation is solved numerically with the discontinuous finite element method. The model evaluation was performed in two steps, first by comparing model simulations with the measured suspended sediment concentrations in the Grote Nete–Molse Nete River in Belgium, and second by a model intercomparison with the sediment transport model NST MIKE 11. The simulations reflect the measurements with a Nash‐Sutcliffe model efficiency of 0.6, while the efficiency between the proposed model and the NST MIKE 11 simulations is 0.96. Both evaluations indicate that the proposed sediment transport model, that is sufficiently simple to be practical, is providing realistic results.  相似文献   

A bounding surface elasto‐viscoplastic constitutive model for non‐isothermal cyclic analysis of asphaltic materials          下载免费PDF全文

B. Shahbodagh  M.A. Habte  A. Khoshghalb  N. Khalili 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(5):721-739

An elasto‐viscoplastic constitutive model for asphaltic materials is presented within the context of bounding surface plasticity theory, taking into account the effects of the stress state, void binder degree of saturation, temperature and strain rate on the material behaviour. A stress state dependent non‐linear elasticity model is introduced to represent time‐independent recoverable portion of the deformation. The consistent visco‐plasticity framework is utilised to capture the rate‐dependent, non‐recoverable strain components. The material parameters introduced in the model are identified, and their determination from conventional laboratory tests is discussed. The capability of the model to reproduce experimentally observed response of asphaltic materials is demonstrated through numerical simulations of several laboratory test data from the literature. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on streamflow in Western Iran          下载免费PDF全文

Hossein Tabari  Hirad Abghari  Parisa Hosseinzadeh Talaee 《水文研究》2014,28(15):4411-4418

The Middle East region, where arid and semi‐arid regions occupy most of the land, is extremely vulnerable to any natural or anthropogenic reductions in available water resources. Much of the observed interannual‐decadal variability in Middle Eastern streamflow is physically linked to a large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this work, the relationship between the NAO index and the seasonal and annual streamflows in the west of Iran was statistically examined during the last four decades. The correlations were constructed for two scenarios (with and without time lag). The associations between the annual and seasonal streamflows and the simultaneous NAO index were found to be poor and insignificant. The possibility of streamflow forecasting was also explored, and the results of lag correlations revealed that streamflow responses at the NAO signal with two and three seasons delays. The highest Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.379 was found between the spring NAO index and the autumn streamflow series at Taghsimab station, indicating that roughly 14% of the variance in the streamflow series is associated with NAO forcing. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Analysis of shaft resistance of jacked piles in sands     

Rodrigo Salgado 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2011,35(15):1605-1635

In recent years, pile jacking has become a viable alternative installation method for displacement piles. Pile jacking produces minimal noise, vibration and air pollution during installation. In addition, it is possible, at the end of jacking, to have a good estimate of the ultimate static capacity of the pile. In this paper, the shaft resistance of piles jacked into sand is studied using one‐dimensional finite element analysis. The finite element simulations, using a two‐surface plasticity model, demonstrate the effects of relative density and confinement on the unit shaft resistance of piles jacked in sand. The impact of the number of jacking strokes on the unit shaft capacity is also assessed. Based on the numerical results, we developed equations for shaft resistance quantifying the effects of relative density, initial confinement and number of jacking strokes. Predictions using these equations are compared with data obtained from centrifuge tests and field tests. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Borehole failure analysis in a sandstone under anisotropic stresses     

Euripides Papamichos 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2010,34(6):581-603

Borehole failure under anisotropic stresses in a sandstone is analyze numerically for various borehole sizes using a nonlinear elastic–plastic constitutive model for a Cosserat continuum. Borehole failure is identified as macroscopic failure of the borehole through the development of shear bands and breakouts. The results compare well both qualitatively and quantitatively with experimental results from polyaxial tests on Red Wildmoor sandstone. They show that the hole size effect of the borehole failure strength is independent of the far‐field stress anisotropy and follows a ? power law of the hole size. A similar scale effect equation with a ? power law is proposed for the scale effect of the maximum plastic shear strain at failure. This equation can be useful for better predicting hole‐size‐dependent failure with standard codes based on classical continua. The effect of stress anisotropy on the borehole failure stress is found to be independent of the hole size. The failure stress decreases linearly to 40% as the stress anisotropy increases. However, the maximum plastic shear strain at failure is stress anisotropy independent and therefore the critical plastic shear strain for failure is only hole‐size dependent. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Linking multi-level governance to local common-pool resource theory using fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis: Insights from twenty years of biodiversity conservation in Costa Rica     

Xavier Basurto 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(3):573-587

Understanding the relationship between multi-level institutional linkages and conditions influencing the likelihood of successful collective action has practical and theoretical relevance to sustainable local resource governance. This paper studies the relationship between multi-level linkages and local autonomy, a facilitating condition found to increase the likelihood of local successful collective action. A technique known as fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) was applied to a longitudinal comparative data set. In the context of the decentralization of a protected area system in Costa Rica (1986–2006), it traced the emergence and endurance of autonomy among local institutions for biodiversity conservation. The technique illustrates which set of multi-level linkages combined in different ways, and at different points in time, to reach the same outcome (local autonomy). The findings show that a unique set of combinations of multi-level linkages led to the emergence of local autonomy among institutions for biodiversity conservation governance. In contrast, a more diverse set was associated with the endurance of local autonomy over time, suggesting that institutional diversity may play a more prominent role in the maintenance of institutional robustness than in processes of institutional emergence.  相似文献