天山活断层分段在中期地震危险区预测中的应用     

郑福婉  吴晓莉 《内陆地震》1995,9(3):250-259

为研究今后１￣３年强震危险区，从天山活断层中挑选了５条活动性较强的断裂（带），用地震破裂和地震学标志将断裂分段，在分段基础上研究各段地震迁移、地震时空特征、中强地震动态、危险性概率预测。结合新疆境内６级以上强震震例研究，提出近期危险性判据指标，从中筛选出中期危险地段。  相似文献   

大同－阳高地震的孕育和强震的“增震作用”     

陈绍绪  李文英 《山西地震》1995,(1)

论述了大同－阳高地震的孕育机制，认为可能有３个因素，即区域断层的长期蠕动，中小地震的频繁活动以及外围强震的“增震作用”。研究了利用强震的增、减震作用判定强震危险区的方法，初步取得了较为满意的效果。  相似文献   

Probabilistic Estimation of Hazard on Engineering Site Based on the Intensity of Historic Earthquakes and A Preliminary Comparison with Seismic Hazard Analysis     

Zhang Jie  Shen JianwenSeismological Bureau of Anhui Province  Hefei  China 《中国地震研究》1995,(1)

This paper introduces a new method to estimate the seismic hazard on engineering site.The method is mainly based on intensity data of historical earthquakes.The obvious feature of the method is to use some ideas of seismic hazard analysis and considering regional seismicity tendency.The authors depict the comprehensive method to estimate the related parameters and predict the seismic hazards for 14 sites as practical examples.Some problems are also discussed.Compared with seismic hazard analysis,this method has certain advantages,such as simpler computation,lower uncertainty and smaller sensitivity factor.Moreover total hazard P(I≥i)of a site can be examined with real historic data.The result given by the method in this paper can be more stable than that given by seismic hazard analysis nowadays.  相似文献   

祁连山强震构造带分段及其地震危险性评估   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

楚全芝  汪良谋 《地震地质》1995,17(2):116-122

祁连山强震构造带由祁连山北缘断裂和海原断裂组成。断裂带主要表现为压扭性左旋滑动，最大滑动速率达９ｍｍ／ａ。沿带有一系列的古地震事件，且有多次历史地震发生。海原８．６级地震就发生在该带上。根据该带的断裂活动习性，按照一定的原则和依据划分成３个一级断层段和１７个二级断层段。建立了古地震、历史大震图像识别和地震重现间隔二元分析的数学模型。在此基础之上对该带作了地震危险性别定，划分出３个Ａ类危险段和４个Ｂ类危险段  相似文献   

In　search　of　potential　earthquake　source　regions　in　the　Chinese　mainland　in　the　light　of　ambient　shear　stress　field     

陈培善  白彤霞  肖磊 《地震学报(英文版)》1995,8(3):365-377

ＩｎｓｅａｒｃｈｏｆｐｏｔｅｎｔｉａｌａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｏｕｒｃｅｒｅｇｉｏｎｓｉｎｔｈｅＣｈｉｎｅｓｅｍａｉｎｌａｎｄｉｎｔｈｅｌｉｇｈｔｏｆａｍｂｉｅｎｔ　ｓｈｅａｒｓｔｒｅｓｓｆｉｅｌｄＰｅｉ－ＳｈａｎＣＨＥＮ；（陈培善）Ｔｏｎｇ－ＸｉａＢＡ...  相似文献   

预测10年尺度地震危险性的综合模型     

金学申  戴英华 《中国地震》1995,11(3):248-256

本文依据信息量的定量判定方法，从分析地震地质和前兆因子与强震发生的关系出发，对各种因子所能提供的长期或１０年尺度强震危险的信息量作了估计。  相似文献   

三维有限元数值模拟在宁夏大坝电厂地震安全性评价中的应用   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

李步云  杨斌  刘洪春  李强  张向红 《地震工程学报》1995,17(3):80-87

本文综合考虑了宁夏大坝电厂周围２５０ｋｍ范围内的地质、地球物理方面的有关资料，建立了三维有限元模型。利用该模型模拟了该区域的构造应力场，进而对大坝电厂厂址区及附近进行了地震危险性分析。在分析工作中结合安全度的定义提出了危险系数的概念及潜在震源区划分的定量－定性标志。经过分析，作者认为大坝电厂附近构造稳定性较好。  相似文献   

基于AHP-熵-TOPSIS对极轨气象卫星应用系统健康程度评价指标体系     

邢开云  贾树泽  赵现纲  冯小虎 《气象科技》2020,48(4):482-489

以实现对极轨气象卫星应用系统健康程度进行综合评价为目的,提出结合主观分析的层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)和客观分析的熵权法(Entropy Weight,EW)确定待评价系统指标值的综合权重,再采用逼近理想解排序法(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution,TOPSIS)对系统的指标进行多角度评价排序来作为最终评价结果。本文根据连续5个月3颗极轨气象卫星在实际业务系统运行中异常指标样本进行实证分析。结果表明该方法较为全面考虑了影响应用系统的多种因素,避免了单一判据的局限性,并对各指标的重要性进行综合对比分析,使得评价结果更科学准确,可以作为构建极轨气象卫星应用系统健康程度评价指标体系的一种方法。  相似文献   

How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts     

Heidi Kreibich  Veit Blauhut  Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts  Laurens M. Bouwer  Henny A.J. Van Lanen  Alfonso Mejia 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z2):1-18

ABSTRACT

For the development of sustainable, efficient risk management strategies for the hydrological extremes of droughts and floods, it is essential to understand the temporal changes of impacts, and their respective causes and interactions. In particular, little is known about changes in vulnerability and their influence on drought and flood impacts. We present a fictitious dialogue between two experts, one in droughts and the other in floods, showing that the main obstacles to scientific advancement in this area are both a lack of data and a lack of commonly accepted approaches. The drought and flood experts “discuss” available data and methods and we suggest a complementary approach. This approach consists of collecting a large number of single or multiple paired-event case studies from catchments around the world, undertaking detailed analyses of changes in impacts and drivers, and carrying out a comparative analysis. The advantages of this approach are that it allows detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the paired-event analyses, and reveals general, transferable conclusions based on the comparative analysis of various case studies. Additionally, it is quite flexible in terms of data and can accommodate differences between floods and droughts.  相似文献   

Exploring changes in hydrogeological risk awareness and preparedness over time: a case study in northeastern Italy     

E. Mondino  A. Scolobig  M. Borga  F. Albrecht  J. Mård  P. Weyrich 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(7):1049-1059

ABSTRACT

Hydrogeological hazards are increasingly causing damage worldwide due to climatic and socio-economic changes. Building resilient communities is crucial to reduce potential losses. To this end, one of the first steps is to understand how people perceive potential threats around them. This study aims at exploring how risk awareness of, and preparedness to, face hydrological hazards changes over time. A cohort study was carried out in two villages in the northeastern Italian Alps, Romagnano and Vermiglio, affected by debris flows in 2000 and 2002. Surveys were conducted in 2005 and 2018, and the results compared. The survey data show that both awareness and preparedness decreased over time. We attribute this change to the fact that no event had occurred in a long time and to a lack of proper risk communication strategies. The outcomes of this study contribute to socio-hydrological modelling by providing empirical data on human behaviour dynamics.  相似文献