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81.
冰雹是一种中小尺度的天气现象,多发生在地形复杂的山区和丘陵地带。黔西南是典型的冰雹频繁发生的多灾地带,每年发生大小冰雹天气过程几十次,尤其是个别县的某些乡镇几乎在每一次的重大天气过程中都要遭受到冰雹的袭击,显示出冰雹天气发生过程中具有明显的区域性和局地性。因此,用多普勒雷达的观测资料来分析冰雹的发生、发展和消亡过程,得出可能降雹的区域和地点,可以提高临近预报的准确性和及时性,降低冰雹灾害性天气所带来的经济损失,是非常有用的。 相似文献
82.
基于非线性平差模型的坐标转换公式 总被引:4,自引:2,他引:4
用线性近似法以及非线性参数估计法讨论了直角坐标系七参数转换模型,指出改进的Gauss-Newton方法具有理论严密、计算简洁、易于编程、精度较高等持点。对于处理类似坐标转换的非线性模型具有重要的理论和实践意义。 相似文献
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Postglacial topographic evolution of glaciated valleys: a stochastic landscape evolution model 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The retreat of valley glaciers has a dramatic effect on the stability of glaciated valleys and exerts a prolonged influence on the subsequent fluvial sediment transport regime. We have studied the evolution of an idealized glaciated valley during the period following retreat of ice using a numerical model. The model incorporates a stochastic process to represent deep‐seated landsliding, non‐linear diffusion to represent shallow landsliding and an approximation of the Bagnold relation to represent fluvial sediment transport. It was calibrated using field data from several recent surveys within British Columbia, Canada. We present ensemble model results and compare them with results from a deterministic linear‐diffusion model to show that explicit representation of large landslides is necessary to reproduce the morphology and channel network structure of a typical postglacial valley. Our model predicts a rapid rate of fluvial sediment transport following deglaciation with a subsequent gradual decline, similar to that inferred for Holocene time. We also describe how changes in the model parameters affect the estimated magnitude and duration of the paraglacial sediment pulse. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
87.
Scalar and vector intensity measures are developed for the efficient estimation of limit‐state capacities through incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) by exploiting the elastic spectral shape of individual records. IDA is a powerful analysis method that involves subjecting a structural model to several ground motion records, each scaled to multiple levels of intensity (measured by the intensity measure or IM), thus producing curves of structural response parameterized by the IM on top of which limit‐states can be defined and corresponding capacities can be calculated. When traditional IMs are used, such as the peak ground acceleration or the first‐mode spectral acceleration, the IM‐values of the capacities can display large record‐to‐record variability, forcing the use of many records to achieve reliable results. By using single optimal spectral values as well as vectors and scalar combinations of them on three multistorey buildings significant dispersion reductions are realized. Furthermore, IDA is extended to vector IMs, resulting in intricate fractile IDA surfaces. The results reveal the most influential spectral regions/periods for each limit‐state and building, illustrating the evolution of such periods as the seismic intensity and the structural response increase towards global collapse. The ordinates of the elastic spectrum and the spectral shape of each individual record are found to significantly influence the seismic performance and they are shown to provide promising candidates for highly efficient IMs. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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A new computational framework is developed for the design and retrofit of building structures by considering aseismic design as a complex adaptive process. For the initial phase of the development within this framework, genetic algorithms are employed for the discrete optimization of passively damped structural systems. The passive elements may include metallic plate dampers, viscous fluid dampers and viscoelastic solid dampers. The primary objective is to determine robust designs, including both the non‐linearity of the structural system and the uncertainty of the seismic environment. Within the present paper, this computational design approach is applied to a series of model problems, involving sizing and placement of passive dampers for energy dissipation. In order to facilitate our investigations and provide a baseline for further study, we introduce several simplifications for these initial examples. In particular, we employ deterministic lumped parameter structural models, memoryless fitness function definitions and hypothetical seismic environments. Despite these restrictions, some interesting results are obtained from the simulations and we are able to gain an understanding of the potential for the proposed evolutionary aseismic design methodology. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
89.
Assessing regression‐based statistical approaches for downscaling precipitation over North America 下载免费PDF全文
This paper assesses linear regression‐based methods in downscaling daily precipitation from the general circulation model (GCM) scale to a regional climate model (RCM) scale (45‐ and 15‐km grids) and down to a station scale across North America. Traditional downscaling experiments (linking reanalysis/dynamical model predictors to station precipitation) as well as nontraditional experiments such as predicting dynamic model precipitation from larger‐scale dynamic model predictors or downscaling dynamic model precipitation from predictors at the same scale are conducted. The latter experiments were performed to address predictability limit and scale issues. The results showed that the downscaling of daily precipitation occurrence was rarely successful at all scales, although results did constantly improve with the increased resolution of climate models. The explained variances for downscaled precipitation amounts at the station scales were low, and they became progressively better when using predictors from a higher‐resolution climate model, thus showing a clear advantage in using predictors from RCMs driven by reanalysis at its boundaries, instead of directly using reanalysis data. The low percentage of explained variances resulted in considerable underestimation of daily precipitation mean and standard deviation. Although downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors (or RCM precipitation from RCM predictors) cannot really be considered downscaling, as there is no change in scale, the exercise yields interesting information as to the limit in predictive ability at the station scale. This was especially clear at the GCM scale, where the inability of downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors demonstrates that GCM precipitation‐generating processes are largely at the subgrid scale (especially so for convective events), thus indicating that downscaling precipitation at the station scale from GCM scale is unlikely to be successful. Although results became better at the RCM scale, the results indicate that, overall, regression‐based approaches did not perform well in downscaling precipitation over North America. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
90.
Drying of deformable porous media results in their shrinkage, and it may cause cracking provided that shrinkage deformations are hindered by kinematic constraints. This is the motivation to develop a thermodynamics‐based microporoelasticity model for the assessment of cracking risk in partially saturated porous geomaterials. The study refers to 3D representative volume elements of porous media, including a two‐scale double‐porosity material with a pore network comprising (at the mesoscale) 3D mesocracks in the form of oblate spheroids, and (at the microscale) spherical micropores of different sizes. Surface tensions prevailing in all interfaces between solid, liquid, and gaseous matters are taken into account. To establish a thermodynamics‐based crack propagation criterion for a two‐scale double‐porosity material, the potential energy of the solid is derived, accounting—in particular—for mesocrack geometry changes (main original contribution) and for effective micropore pressures, which depend (due to surface tensions) on the pore radius. Differentiating the potential energy with respect to crack density parameter yields the thermodynamical driving force for crack propagation, which is shown to be governed by an effective macrostrain. It is found that drying‐related stresses in partially saturated mesocracks reduce the cracking risk. The drying‐related effective underpressures in spherical micropores, in turn, result in a tensile eigenstress of the matrix in which the mesocracks are embedded. This way, micropores increase the mesocracking risk. Model application to the assessment of cracking risk during drying of argillite is the topic of the companion paper (Part II). Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献