Analysis of the Decadal and Interdecadal Variations of the East Asian Winter Monsoon as Simulated by 20 Coupled Models in IPCC AR4     

HE Shengping  WANG Huijun 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2012,26(4):476-488

Using the output data of 20 coupled climate models used in IPCC AR4 and observational data from NCEP, the capability of the models to simulate the boreal winter climatology of the East Asian sea level pressure, 850-hPa wind, and surface air temperature; the decadal variations of the East Asian winter mon- soon (EAWM) intensity and EAWM-related circulation, and the interdecadal variations of EAWM-related circulation are systematically evaluated. The results indicate that 16 models can weakly simulate the declin- ing trend of the EAWM in the 1980s. More than half of the models produce relatively reasonable decadal variations of the EAWM-related circulation and the interdecadal di?erences of EAWM-related circulation between the boreal winters of 1960-1985 and 1986-1998, including the weakened Siberian high, Aleutian low, and East Asian trough, the enhanced Arctic oscillation and North Pacific oscillation, and a deepened polar vortex. It is found that the performance of the multi-selected-model ensemble in reproducing the spatial dis- tribution of the variations is encouraging, although the variational amplitudes are generally smaller than the observations. In addition, it is found that BCCR_BCM2.0, CGCM3.1_T63, CNRM_CM3, CSIRO_MK3.0, GISS-ER, INM_CM3.0, and MRI_CGCM2.3.2 perform well in every aspect  相似文献   

Extreme events as drivers of early human behaviour in Africa? The case for variability,not catastrophic drought     

David S. G. Thomas  Sallie L. Burrough  Adrian G. Parker 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(1):7-12

Extreme Late Quaternary climatic events, sometimes of considerable continental extent, are being proposed as major contributors to ancestral human behaviour, particularly migration, in Africa. Most recently, a catastrophic drought in the Afro‐Asian monsoon region has been proposed for 16 000–17 000 years ago, driven by global impacts of the Heinrich event 1 (H1), with potentially significant consequences for Palaeolithic cultures. We provide a new analysis of the assertion and find, on examination of a wide set of palaeoenvironmental records, that the scale and extent of the proposed drought is not supported. While some parts of the African tropics, close to the equator, do appear dry at this time, data for the tropics as a whole suggest markedly variable terrestrial conditions, with some environmental systems experiencing very positive hydrological excursions during H1. We contend that in the quest for evidence of climate drivers of ancestral human behaviour, the variability associated with spatially and temporally complex climatic conditions is a significant factor in itself. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Late Quaternary fluvial aggradation and incision in the monsoon‐dominated Alaknanda valley,Central Himalaya,Uttrakhand, India     

Navin juyal  Yaspal Sundriyal  Naresh rana  Shipra chaudhary  Ashok k. Singhvi 《第四纪科学杂志》2010,25(8):1293-1304

The present study aims to explain the spatial and temporal variability in phases of aggradation/incision in response to changes in climate and seismicity during the late Quaternary in the Alaknanda River valley (a major tributary of the river Ganges or Ganga). Geomorphology, stratigraphy and optical dating of the fluvial sediment reveal that the oldest fluvial landforms preserved in the south of the Main Central Thrust are debris flow terraces developed during the early part of pluvial Marine Isotopic Stage 3. Following this, a period of accelerated incision/erosion owing to an increase in uplift rate and more intense rainfall occurred. In the Lesser Himalaya, three phases of valley fill aggradation around 26 ± 3 ka, 18 ± 2 ka and 15 ± 1 ka and 8 ± 1 ka occurred in response to changes in monsoon intensity and sediment flux. The last phase was regionally extensive and corresponds to a strengthening of the early Holocene Indian Summer Monsoon. A gradual decline in the monsoon strength after 8 ± 1 ka resulted in reduced fluvial discharge and lower sediment transport capacity of the Alaknanda River, leading to valley fill incision and the development of terraces. The study suggests that fluvial dynamics in the Alaknanda valley were modulated by monsoon variability and the role of tectonics was subordinate, limited to providing accommodation space and post‐deposition modification of the fluvial landforms. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Applications of satellite data in the study of monsoon variability     

R. R. Kelkar 《Journal of Earth System Science》1993,102(1):271-281

This paper discusses the use of satellite data for studying climate change, with particular emphasis on the inter-annual variability of the Indian southwest monsoon. Precipitation estimates made from INSAT-1B radiance data are shown to bring out the variations that occurred in the monsoon rainfall of 1987 and 1988. Outgoing Longwave Radiation derived from INSAT-1B shows good correspondence with precipitation patterns.  相似文献   

近40年中国区域的气候型变化与北半球大气环流特征10年际时空变化的关系   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

徐祥德  苗峻峰  章基嘉 《热带气象学报》1994,10(1):38-36

根据１８００－１９８９年（１１０年）的资料，分析研究了新加坡地区月平均和年平均降雨量的一些特征。主要结论是：新加坡年平均降雨量存在准２－６年和１８年的周期振荡；亚洲季风以及ＥＮＳＯ对新加坡降雨量有明显的影响。新加坡年雨量的谷值出现在西南季风期而峰值在东北季风期。在Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ年，新加坡降雨量多为负距平；而在反Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ年，新加坡降雨量多为正距平。  相似文献   

用简化的海—气耦合模式模拟大尺度海—气相互作用     

金音  孙照渤 《南京气象学院学报》1993,(1)

用一个简化的海—气耦合模式,首先模拟出了地—海—气系统从季节到年际的相互作用,随后在此基础上,试验了赤道地区海表温度正距平对印度季风的可能影响。  相似文献   

1990 年京津冀三次暴雨的分析   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

刘延英  许晨海 《应用气象学报》1993,4(3):349-355

本文分析了1990年京津冀地区三次暴雨过程，结果发现:（1）三次暴雨是属于相伴有冷锋的高空槽影响的暴雨；（2）暴雨开始前约10小时雨区的西南方存在湿有效能量高能舌，高能舌的西方和北方有能量和水汽的积聚；（3）对流层低层的锋生和地形对气流的抬升作用是触发暴雨开始的直接原因。  相似文献   

Changes in post world war ii distribution and status of monsoon rainforests in the Darwin area     

William J. Panton 《The Australian geographer》1993,24(2):50-59

Monsoon rainforests in the Darwin area occur as isolated patches ranging in size from 2 to 112 ha. Aerial photographic records over a 45 year period indicate a 60 per cent reduction in the cover of pre‐1945 rainforest. Urban development, cyclone damage, weed invasion and wildfire were identified as the major causes of this contraction. Urban development contributed 40 per cent of the total rainforest loss during this period. Rainforests occurring on dry substrates have been most affected by urban development. Cyclonic storm damage and indirect human affects such as weed invasion and anthropogenic fires continue to disturb the remaining rainforest patches. Although the largest expanses of rainforest presently occur within parks and reserves, providing adequate protection from further urban encroachment, smaller remnants occurring on vacant crown land are vulnerable to changes in land use. As well as the introduction of appropriate legislation, the control of fire and weeds should be given the highest priority by land managers to ensure the stability and long‐term maintenance of this remnant vegetation.  相似文献   

Air-sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean during several contrasting monsoon seasons     

M. R. Ramesh Kumar  J. S. Sastry 《Journal of Earth System Science》1990,99(3):393-404

Monthly mean anomaly fields of various parameters like sea surface temperature, air temperature, wind stress, effective radiation at the surface, heat gain over the ocean and the total heat loss between a good and bad monsoon composite and the evaporation rates over the Arabian Sea and southern hemisphere have been studied over the tropical Indian Ocean. The mean rates of evaporation on a seasonal scale over the Arabian Sea during a good and bad monsoon composites were equal (about 2·48 × 10¹⁰ tons/day). The evaporation rates over the southern hemisphere were greater during all the months. The mean evaporation rates over the southern hemisphere on a seasonal scale for the good and bad monsoon composites were 4·4 × 10¹⁰ and 4·6 × 10¹⁰ tons/day respectively. The maximum evaporation rates over the southern hemisphere were observed in August. The anomalies of wind stress, effective radiation at the surface and the heat gain over the ocean also exhibit large variations in August, as compared to other monsoon months.  相似文献   

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS ON THE EFFECT OF QINGHAIXIZANG PLATEAU SNOW COVER ON SUMMER MONSOON FORMATION          下载免费PDF全文

Zhang Zhengqiu  Li Weiliang  Chen Longxun 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1991,5(4):442-455

The calculating schemes of underlying surface processes in the model described by Li et al.(1989)are modified with inclusion of simple land surface processes and oceanic mixed layer processes,then a simulation on the zonal wind along 90°E from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere with moun-tains is performed.Comparisons of the results and the observations show that the modified model not onlyhas an excellent stability in calculation but also can better display the seasonal change of the wind field,theability of the present model is improved as compared with that of the previous one.Based on the simulations,the authors investigate the effects of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau snow cover on theformation of South Asian monsoon by thickcning the snow depth and by increasing the snow albedo.Themain results arc as follows:The summer meridional circulation over the south of the Plateau and its vicinityis weakeued,and the precipitation reduced.However,over the northern tropics,the circulation is enhanced,and the ecipitation is increased,and the land and the air above it become warmer,the tropical easterly jetis weakened.  相似文献