侯马市酸雨概况及其气象条件分析          下载免费PDF全文

薛廷枝  王智娟  史海平  张红安  贾海燕 《山西气象》2005,(4):14-15

通过对侯马近14a酸雨观测资料分析,发现侯马出现酸雨的概率较大,强度较强,时间变化特征明显,与气象条件关系密切。  相似文献   

闽东北地区夏季对流云特征的初步分析     

左平昭  陈秋萍  郭正明  陈德汶  刘锐志 《气象科技》2005,(Z1)

利用新一代天气雷达资料分析闽东北地区夏季对流云的回波特征。分析表明:多单体合并对流云在生命史、回波高度、强度、尺度等方面都超过了单体对流云,其液态水总量也更大,自然降水条件和人工影响潜力都优于单体对流云,是夏季降水和人工催化的重要云系。分析得到对流云发展的不同阶段、不同高度层辐合辐散特点,为进一步研究夏季对流云结构和降水原理提供科学依据。通过对两个个例的天气形势分析,指出冷空气对对流发展有一定的激发作用。  相似文献   

棉花生育期关键气象因子及单产丰歉评估指标     

刘伟昌  张雪芬  王世涛  付祥建  祝新建 《气象科技》2005,(Z1)

根据河南省棉花播种面积权重,选出安阳、新乡、商丘、周口和南阳5个代表站,利用棉花产量与棉花生育期间5个代表站旬平均光照、温度、降水的相关系数,确定7个关键气象因子,建立了其与产量的回归方程,提出了考虑7个关键气象因子综合影响的棉花单产丰歉评估指标。应用该评估指标对1980~2004年棉花单产的丰歉进行检验,与实况一致的达84%,产量与评估指标相关系数达0.71以上,相关极显著。  相似文献   

京津唐地区HFMD时空变异分析与影响因子探测     

张湘雪  王丽  尹礼唱  徐成东  李霞  刘杨 《地球信息科学学报》2019,21(3):398-406

手足口病（HFMD）是一种多发于儿童的常见传染病。近年来,中国HFMD发病人数逐年上升,疾病疫情也日益受到社会广泛关注。虽已有不少相关研究,但对于探测其时空异质性及量化潜在影响因子解释力的研究仍然较少。本文采用地理探测器及贝叶斯时空层次模型,对2009-2013年京津唐地区HFMD发病率的时空异质性进行分析,并量化各影响因子及其两两交互作用对HFMD发病率的解释力。结果表明：① HFMD的相对风险存在时间异质性,其发病风险在春夏季（5-7月）达到峰值,而冬季（12-次年2月）发病风险最低;② HFMD的相对风险存在空间异质性,在经济发达的地区HFMD发病率较高;③ 影响HFMD发病率时间异质性的主要气象因子为平均温度、累积降水、相对湿度,解释力分别为0.38,0.27,0.13,且交互作用都大于独自影响的作用,如平均温度和相对湿度、平均温度和降水,平均温度和风速两两交互的解释力分别为0.43, 0.40, 0.42。通过研究京津唐地区HFMD发病率的时空异质性以及影响因子的量化状况,为本地区HFMD的预防和控制提供理论依据。  相似文献   

Discharge‐sediment processes of the Zhadang glacier on the Tibetan Plateau measured with a high frequency data acquisition system          下载免费PDF全文

Fei Chen  Qiangguo Cai  Liying Sun  Tingwu Lei 《水文研究》2016,30(23):4330-4338

In high elevation cold regions of the Tibetan Plateau, suspended sediment transfer from glacier meltwater erosion is one of the important hydrological components. The Zhadang glacier is a typical valley‐type glacier in the Nyainqentanglha Mountains on the Tibetan Plateau. To make frequent and long period records of meltwater runoff and sediment processes in the very high elevation and isolated regions, an automatic system was installed near the glacier snout (5400 m a.s.l) in August 2013, to measure the transient discharge and sediment processes at 5‐min interval, which is shorter than the time span for the water flow to traverse the catchment from the farthest end to the watershed outlet. Diurnal variations of discharge, and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) were recorded at high frequency for the Zhadang glacier, before suspended sediment load (SSL) was computed. Hourly SSC varied from the range of 0.2 kg/m³ to 0.5 kg/m³ (at 8:00–9:00) to the range of 2.0 kg/m³ to 4.0 kg/m³ (at 17:00–18:00). The daily SSL was 32.24 t during the intense ablation period. Hourly SSC was linearly correlated with discharge (r = 0.885**, n = 18, p < 0.01). A digit‐eight hysteresis loop was observed for the sediment transport in the glacier area. Air temperature fluctuations influence discharge, and then result in the sediment variations. The results of this study provide insight into the responses of suspended sediment delivery processes with a high frequency data in the high elevation cold regions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于机器学习的高精度高分辨率气象因子时空估计     

方颖  李连发 《地球信息科学学报》2019,21(6):799-813

气象变量常作为重要的影响因子出现在环境污染、疾病健康和农业等领域,而高分辨率的气象资料可作为众多研究的基础数据,对推进相关研究的发展意义重大。本文以中国大陆为研究区域,利用2015年824个气象站点的气温、相对湿度和风速3套数据,结合不同的解释变量组合,分别构建了各自的GAM和残差自编码器神经网络（简称残差网络）模型,以10倍交叉验证判断模型是否过拟合。研究结果表明：① GAM和残差网络方法都不存在过拟合问题,同GAM相比,残差网络显著提高了模型预测的精度（3个气象因素的交叉验证CV R²平均提高了0.21,CV RMSE平均降低了37%）,其中相对湿度模型的提升幅度最大（CV R²:0.85 vs. 0.52,CV RMSE:7.53% vs. 13.59%）;② 残差模型的结果较普通克里格插值结果和再分析资料更接近站点观测数据,表明残差网络可作为高分辨率气象数据研制的可靠方法。此外,研究还发现在相对湿度模型中加入臭氧浓度和气温、在风速模型中加入GLDAS风速再分析资料,可提升模型的性能。  相似文献   

An examination of snow redistribution over smooth land‐fast sea ice     

J. Iacozza  D. G. Barber 《水文研究》2010,24(7):850-865

An understanding of temporal evolution of snow on sea ice at different spatial scales is essential for improvement of snow parameterization in sea ice models. One of the problems we face, however, is that long‐term climate data are routinely available for land and not for sea ice. In this paper, we examine the temporal evolution of snow over smooth land‐fast first‐year sea ice using observational and modelled data. Changes in probability density functions indicate that depositional and drifting events control the evolution of snow distribution. Geostatistical analysis suggests that snowdrifts increased over the study period, and the orientation was related to the meteorological conditions. At the microscale, the temporal evolution of the snowdrifts was a product of infilling in the valleys between drifts. Results using two shore‐based climate reporting stations (Paulatuk and Tuktoyuktuk, NWT) suggest that on‐ice air temperature and relative humidity can be estimated using air temperature recorded at either station. Wind speed, direction and precipitation on ice cannot be accurately estimated using meteorological data from either station. The temporal evolution of snow distribution over smooth land‐fast sea ice was modelled using SnowModel and four different forcing regimes. The results from these model runs indicate a lack of agreement between observed distribution and model outputs. The reasons for these results are lack of meteorological measurements prior to the end of January, lack of spatially adequate surface topography and discrepancies between meteorological variables on land and ice. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Simulation of quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems in northern China: Lightning activities and storm structure   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Wanli Li  Xiushu Qie  Shenming Fu  Debin Su  Yonghai Shen 《大气科学进展》2016,33(1):85-100

Two intense quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems(QLMCSs) in northern China were simulated using the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model and the 3D-Var(three-dimensional variational) analysis system of the ARPS(Advanced Regional Prediction System) model.A new method in which the lightning density is calculated using both the precipitation and non-precipitation ice mass was developed to reveal the relationship between the lightning activities and QLMCS structures.Results indicate that,compared with calculating the results using two previous methods,the lightning density calculated using the new method presented in this study is in better accordance with observations.Based on the calculated lightning densities using the new method,it was found that most lightning activity was initiated on the right side and at the front of the QLMCSs,where the surface wind field converged intensely.The CAPE was much stronger ahead of the southeastward progressing QLMCS than to the back it,and their lightning events mainly occurred in regions with a large gradient of CAPE.Comparisons between lightning and non-lightning regions indicated that lightning regions featured more intense ascending motion than non-lightning regions;the vertical ranges of maximum reflectivity between lightning and non-lightning regions were very different;and the ice mixing ratio featured no significant differences between the lightning and non-lightning regions.  相似文献   

气象观测设备运行状态综合判定技术应用     

李雁  李峰  郭维  夏元彩  周青  周薇 《南京气象学院学报》2016,8(5):439-445

从气象观测设备运行保障角度出发,基于各观测设备自身运行状态检测信息,结合气象观测数据、气象观测元数据信息以及各级气象观测技术保障业务人员人工填报业务数据,研制了我国气象观测设备运行状态综合判定技术;同时制订了各气象观测设备运行状态分类标准和显示标准,将设备运行状态分为正常、报警、故障和非观测4类状态,分别用绿色、橙色、蓝色和灰色标识.气象观测设备运行状态综合判定技术在一定程度上促进了我国气象观测装备技术保障工作的规范化、标准化开展.该技术贴合气象装备技术保障业务实际需求,设备运行状态判定真实率达100％,结果经实践证明科学合理有效,基于该方法开展的设备运行监控保障工作提高了观测系统稳定可靠的运行能力.  相似文献   

江苏盐城地区一次持续雾-霾天气过程的综合分析   总被引：7，自引：3，他引：4  

周文君  平海波  刘端阳  魏建苏  韦莹莹  王群 《气象》2016,42(7):838-846

2013年12月上旬江苏盐城地区出现了一次历史罕见的持续重度雾-霾天气,利用盐城市常规气象观测资料、NCEP再分析资料(1°×1°)及环境监测中心站的污染物浓度资料等,对此次过程的环流背景、气象要素、大气层结特征以及动力条件、污染情况等进行了综合性分析。结果发现:12月上旬中高层冷空气势力弱,以纬向环流为主;低层弱的水平风场为雾-霾的发生发展提供了有利的环流背景;稳定的层结特征,近地面高强度的贴地逆温和持续较低的混合层高度是此次雾-霾天气长时间维持的重要因素;边界层内弱正散度及负涡度是此次雾-霾天气得以维持发展的动力因子;通过后向轨迹分型和火点监测资料分析发现:污染物的长距离输送在此次重污染天气的形成过程中起到了一定作用。最后,文中建立了能见度和PM_(2.5)浓度、相对湿度的非线性回归方程,对能见度的预报效果较好,为实际业务应用中雾-霾的预报提供了有利的依据。  相似文献