投影寻踪回归与BP神经网络方法在前汛期降水预测中的比较研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

杨永生  何平 《气象与环境学报》2008,24(1):14-17

以1962—2006年粤北地区7个站4—6月前汛期降水量资料为基础,将前汛期降水量与74项环流指数资料进行灰色关联度分析,确定了影响粤北地区前汛期降水量的16个关键环流指数因子,分别应用投影寻踪回归、BP神经网络和逐步回归方法,建立前汛期降水趋势预测模型,对粤北地区前汛期降水趋势进行预测。结果表明:投影寻踪回归和BP神经网络方法的预测能力均优于传统的逐步回归模型。其中,PPR模型比BP神经网络方法的预测效果更好。  相似文献   

Ground-motion Attenuation Relation from Strong-motion Records of the 2001 Mw 7.7 Bhuj Earthquake Sequence (2001–2006), Gujarat, India     

Prantik Mandal  N. Kumar  C. Satyamurthy  I. P. Raju 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2009,166(3):451-469

Predictive relations are developed for peak ground acceleration (PGA) from the engineering seismoscope (SRR) records of the 2001 M_w 7.7 Bhuj earthquake and 239 strong-motion records of 32 significant aftershocks of 3.1 ≤ M_w ≤ 5.6 at epicentral distances of 1 ≤ R ≤ 288 km. We have taken advantage of the recent increase in strong-motion data at close distances to derive new attenuation relation for peak horizontal acceleration in the Kachchh seismic zone, Gujarat. This new analysis uses the Joyner-Boore’s method for a magnitude-independent shape, based on geometrical spreading and anelastic attenuation, for the attenuation curve. The resulting attenuation equation is, where, Y is peak horizontal acceleration in g, M_w is moment magnitude, r_jb is the closest distance to the surface projection of the fault rupture in kilometers, and S is a variable taking the values of 0 and 1 according to the local site geology. S is 0 for a rock site, and, S is 1 for a soil site. The relation differs from previous work in the improved reliability of input parameters and large numbers of strong-motion PGA data recorded at short distances (0–50 km) from the source. The relation is in demonstrable agreement with the recorded strong-ground motion data from earthquakes of M_w 3.5, 4.1, 4.5, 5.6, and 7.7. There are insufficient data from the Kachchh region to adequately judge the relation for the magnitude range 5.7 ≤ M_w ≤ 7.7. But, our ground-motion prediction model shows a reasonable correlation with the PGA data of the 29 March, 1999 Chamoli main shock (M_w 6.5), validating our ground-motion attenuation model for an M_w6.5 event. However, our ground-motion prediction shows no correlation with the PGA data of the 10 December, 1967 Koyna main shock (M_w 6.3). Our ground-motion predictions show more scatter in estimated residual for the distance range (0–30 km), which could be due to the amplification/noise at near stations situated in the Kachchh sedimentary basin. We also noticed smaller residuals for the distance range (30–300 km), which could be due to less amplification/noise at sites distant from the Kachchh basin. However, the observed less residuals for the longer distance range (100–300 km) are less reliable due to the lack of available PGA values in the same distance range.  相似文献   

A cluster-optimizing regression-based approach for precipitation spatial downscaling in mountainous terrain     

Huade Guan  John L. Wilson  Hongjie Xie 《Journal of Hydrology》2009,375(3-4):578-588

Precipitation temporal and spatial variability often controls terrestrial hydrological processes and states. Common remote-sensing and modeling precipitation products have a spatial resolution that is often too coarse to reveal hydrologically important spatial variability. A statistical algorithm was developed for downscaling low-resolution spatial precipitation fields. This algorithm auto-searches precipitation spatial structures (rain-pixel clusters), and orographic effects on precipitation distribution without prior knowledge of atmospheric setting. It is composed of three components: rain-pixel clustering, multivariate regression, and random cascade. The only required input data for the downscaling algorithm are coarse-pixel precipitation map and a topographic map. The algorithm was demonstrated with 4 km × 4 km Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) precipitation fields, and tested by downscaling NEXRAD-aggregated 16 km × 16 km precipitation fields to 4 km × 4 km pixel precipitation, which was then compared to the original NEXRAD data. The demonstration and testing were performed at both daily and hourly temporal resolutions for the northern New Mexico mountainous terrain and the central Texas Hill Country. The algorithm downscaled daily precipitation fields are in good agreement with the original 4 km × 4 km NEXRAD precipitation, as measured by precipitation spatial structures and the statistics between the downscaling and the original NEXRAD precipitation maps. For three daily precipitation events, downscaled precipitation map reproduces precipitation variance of the disaggregation field, and with Pearson correlation coefficients between the downscaled map and the NEXRAD map of 0.65, 0.71, and 0.80. The algorithm does not perform as well on downscaling hourly precipitation fields at the examined scale range (from 16 km to 4 km), which underestimates precipitation variance of the disaggregation field. For a scale range from 4 km to 1 km, the algorithm has potential to perform well at both daily and hourly precipitation fields, indicated from good regression performance.  相似文献   

Rainfall and Obtaining Information Regarding Earthquake Development Processes from Groundwater Level     

Li Yong  Fang Wei  Ma Li 《中国地震研究》2008,22(1):52-61

Many factors can cause changes of groundwater level, such as the development process of an earthquake, rainfall, solid earth tides etc. Among these we are interested in information regarding earthquake development processes. Eliminating the influence of various disturbance factors is an effective way to obtain seismic development process information contained in the groundwater level. This paper provides two different ways to remove the rainfall effect, and compares the two methods by means of correlation analysis. Furthermore, based on these a logistic regression model is established to describe the seismicity level.  相似文献   

桅杆结构纤绳连接拉耳孔边裂纹扩展形状变化特性研究     

瞿伟廉  鲁丽君  李明 《地震工程与工程振动》2008,28(6)

本文采用两自由度的裂纹扩展模型,以桅杆结构纤绳拉耳孔边裂纹前缘最深点和表面点的裂纹扩展增长量来追踪裂纹扩展。基于最小二乘法原理对通过有限元法所获得的各种裂纹形状所对应的裂纹前缘最深点和表面点的无因次形状因子进行多项式曲线拟合,用拟合曲线上的值代替离散的无因次形状因子扩充插值数据库,采用拉格朗日插值法计算任意形状裂纹前缘最深点和表面点无因次形状因子,并计算得到确定裂纹扩展速率所需要的应力强度因子幅度。最后根据裂纹前缘最深点和表面点的裂纹扩展速率确定桅杆结构纤绳连接拉耳孔边裂纹的扩展特性。  相似文献   

Modeling the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides using the weights of evidence method and a logistic regression model： a case study of the Sabae Area, Japan   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Ru-Hua SONG  Daimaru HIROMU  Abe KAZUTOKI  Kurokawa USIO  Matsuura SUMIO 《国际泥沙研究》2008,23(2):106-118

A number of statistical methods are typically used to effectively predict potential landslide distributions. In this study two multivariate statistical analysis methods were used （weights of evidence and logistic regression） to predict the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides in the Kamikawachi area of Sabae City, Fukui Prefecture, Japan. First, the dependent variable （shallow-seated landslides） was divided into presence and absence, and the independent variables （environmental factors such as slope and altitude） were categorized according to their characteristics. Then, using the weights of evidence （WE） method, the weights of pairs comprising presence （w^＋（i）） or absence （w^-（i））, and the contrast values for each category of independent variable （evidence）, were calculated, Using the method that integrated the weights of evidence method and a logistic regression model, score values were calculated for each category of independent variable. Based on these contrast values, three models were selected to sum the score values of every gird in the study area. According to a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis （ROC）, model 2 yielded the best fit for predicting the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslide hazards, with 89% correctness and a 54.5% hit ratio when the occurrence probability （OP） of landslides was 70%. The model was tested using data from an area close to the study region, and showed 94% correctness and a hit ratio of 45.7% when the OP of landslides was 70%. Finally, the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides, based on the OP, was mapped using a geographical information system.  相似文献   

High-precision geoid determination in small areas: A case study in Doñana National Park (Spain)     

M. A. Núñez  A. Martín  J. A. Gili  A. B. Anquela 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2008,52(3):361-380

Doñana National Park is an area of approximately 500 km² located on the SW coast of Spain that shows one of the greatest geoid gradients on the entire Iberian Peninsula, due to its peculiar tectonic characteristics. So, it is necessary to elaborate an accurate geoid model that can be used with GPS for precise surveying, since the existing ones are insufficient, due to their poor resolution and their limited adaptation to a small area with such a strong gradient. The least squares prediction method was tested in order to obtain the undulation from GPS/orthometric points. The results obtained were unsatisfactory because of the strong geoid gradient. In order to improve accuracy the remove-restore technique was used. Global geopotential model EIGEN-CG01C and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with a 25 × 25 m resolution and an accuracy better than 3 m were used. Thus, the final geometrical geoid obtained reaches the precision required by other disciplines (3 cm in any point within the Park). Particularly, the geoid model has allowed for the acquisition of a precision DEM that is essential to formulate a hydrodynamic model for the Doñana marsh functions.  相似文献   

Seismic performance of a 3D full‐scale high‐ductility steel–concrete composite moment‐resisting structure—Part I: Design and testing procedure     

A. Braconi  O. S. Bursi  G. Fabbrocino  W. Salvatore  R. Tremblay 《地震工程与结构动力学》2008,37(14):1609-1634

  相似文献   

Seismic performance of a 3D full‐scale high‐ductile steel–concrete composite moment‐resisting frame—Part II: Test results and analytical validation     

A. Braconi  O. S. Bursi  G. Fabbrocino  W. Salvatore  F. Taucer  R. Tremblay 《地震工程与结构动力学》2008,37(14):1635-1655

This paper presents the results of a multi‐level pseudo‐dynamic seismic test program that was performed to assess the performance of a full‐scale three‐bay, two‐storey steel–concrete composite moment‐resisting frame built with partially encased composite columns and partial‐strength beam‐to‐column joints. The system was designed to develop a ductile response in the joint components of beam‐to‐column joints including flexural yielding of beam end plates and shear yielding of the column web panel zone. The ground motion producing the damageability limit state interstorey drift caused minor damage while the ultimate limit state ground motion level entailed column web panel yielding, connection yielding and plastic hinging at the column base connections. The earthquake level chosen to approach the collapse limit state induced more damage and was accompanied by further column web panel yielding, connection yielding and inelastic phenomena at column base connections without local buckling. During the final quasi‐static cyclic test with stepwise increasing displacement–amplitudes up to an interstorey drift angle of 4.6%, the behaviour was ductile although cracking of beam‐to‐end‐plate welds was observed. Correlations with numerical simulations taking into account the inelastic cyclic response of beam‐to‐column and column base joints are also presented in the paper together. Inelastic static pushover and time history analysis procedures are used to estimate the structural behaviour and overstrength factors of the structural system under study. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Flood‐based analysis of high‐magnitude sediment transport using a non‐parametric method     

T. Francke  J. A. López‐Tarazón  D. Vericat  A. Bronstert  R. J. Batalla 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2008,33(13):2064-2077

Upland erosion and the resulting reservoir siltation is a serious issue in the Isábena catchment (445 km² Central Spanish Pyrenees). During a three‐month period, water and sediment fluxes have been monitored at the catchment outlet (Capella), two adjacent subcatchments (Villacarli, 41 km²; Cabecera, 145 km²) and the elementary badland catchment Torrelaribera (8 ha). This paper presents the results of the monitoring, a method for the calculation of a sedigraph from intermittent measurements and the derived sediment yields at the monitored locations. The observed suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) demonstrate the role of badlands as sediment sources: SSCs of up to 280 g l^?1 were encountered for Villacarli, which includes large badland areas. SSCs at the Cabecera catchment, with great areas of woodland, barely exceeded 30 g l^?1. SSCs directly at the sediment source (Torrelaribera) were comparable to those at Villacarli, suggesting a close connection within this subcatchment. At Capella, SSCs of up to 99 g l^?1 were observed. For all sites, SSC displayed only a loose correlation with discharge, inhibiting the application of a simple sediment rating curve. Instead, ancillary variables acting as driving forces or proxies for the processes (rainfall energy, cumulative discharge, rising/falling limb data) were included in a quantile regression forest model to explain the variability in SSC. The variables with most predictive power vary between the sites, suggesting the predominance of different processes. The subsequent flood‐based calculation of sediment yields attests high specific sediment yields for Torrelaribera and Villacarli (6277 and 1971 t km^?2) and medium to high yields for Cabecera and Capella (139 and 410 t km^?2) during the observation period. In all catchments, most of the sediment was exported during intense storms of late summer. Later flood events yield successively less sediment. Relating upland sediment production to yield at the outlet suggests considerable effects of sediment storage within the river channel. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献