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Rainfall and Obtaining Information Regarding Earthquake Development Processes from Groundwater Level
Many factors can cause changes of groundwater level, such as the development process of an earthquake, rainfall, solid earth tides etc. Among these we are interested in information regarding earthquake development processes. Eliminating the influence of various disturbance factors is an effective way to obtain seismic development process information contained in the groundwater level. This paper provides two different ways to remove the rainfall effect, and compares the two methods by means of correlation analysis. Furthermore, based on these a logistic regression model is established to describe the seismicity level. 相似文献
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地下水位中地震前兆信息提取方法研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
地下水位观测值的影响因素包含降雨、气压、固体潮、地质构造作用等.为凸显地质构造作用对地下水位的影响,需要滤除降雨、固体潮、气压等因素的影响量.本文首先分离地下水位受固体潮、气压作用的影响量;然后依据降雨影响地下水位可以分为长期和短期变化的思路,利用基流分割方法对地下水位的两种变化进行分离,确定地下水位的降雨影响量;最后分析各分量异常与地震活动性关系,探查其中包含的地震前兆信息.本文的研究思路为地下水位观测值中地震前兆信息研究提供了一套可供尝试的系统技术方法. 相似文献
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结合观测井孔的水文地质条件、大气降水资料 ,深入剖析了华北地区水位、水氡的中期和转折型短期异常变化的直接原因 ,认为水位异常是由于降水量的增大与减少造成的 ,其形成机制主要为降水渗入补给 ;水氡异常的形成原因主要为降水渗入 -混合机制。进而提出“深浅构造的互动作用” ,用以解释流体异常与地震的关系 ,其论点是 :降水、地下水变化可诱发 (活化 )浅层的构造变动 ,而浅层构造活动又引发深部构造活动和地震的发生 ;反之 ,深部构造的活动和地震的孕育 ,使浅层岩石的应力增强 ,在降水、地下水的诱发作用下 ,可导致浅层的构造活动。降水引起的地下水异常是一种广义的地震前兆 相似文献
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Mingbo Yang Yuehu Kang Qing Zhang Institute of Geographic Sciences Natural Resource Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Earthquake Administration of Beijing Municipality Beijing China Beijing Beifang Middle School Beijing China 《地震学报(英文版)》2009,(3):301-306
This paper quantitatively analyzed groundwater table fluctuations caused by groundwater overdraft, and probed into the possibility of drawing earthquake precursory information from groundwater table variations on the background of groundwater overdraft. Main effect factors of groundwater regime in Beijing region include groundwater extraction and rainfall. The decline of groundwater table was directly related to regional groundwater overdraft. Using the method of correlation analysis, the paper analyzed the... 相似文献
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对北京地区超采引起的地下水位动态特征与成因作了详细分析,并对超采背景下如何提取地震前兆异常信息的问题作了探讨．北京地区地下水位年动态的主要影响因素是地下水开采和降雨,而地下水位动态的趋势变化则与区域地下水超采量有直接关系．本文用相关分析的方法,分析了北京平原区超采量与水位变化之间的关系,为评价超采区观测井的干扰影响程度、识别地震前兆信息提供依据．研究结果表明,在区域超采不严重的地区引起的水位趋势性变化中,也包含着地震前兆信息;采用消除趋势及年变化影响的数学处理方法,可提取出地震的趋势异常变化． 相似文献
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影响因素及埋藏类型是地下水观测数据前兆分析的重要资料.通过海原甘盐池拉分盆地内两口地震水位观测井(GYC 和 GYCN 井)的气压、降雨与水位资料,综合分析水位变化的影响因素,并分别利用阶跃响应函数、频谱分析法、潮汐波群相位超前或滞后法分析地下水埋藏类型.结果表明:(1)气压和降雨是影响海原甘盐池两口地震观测井水位动态变化的主要因素.(2)GYC井地下水埋藏类型为混合水,与该井成井时的判定资料不一致(承压水),可能与其时间较长、长年失修、存在破损现象有关,或受地表水影响较大 ;GYCN 井地下水埋藏类型为承压水.该研究结果为该地区地震水位观测井的准入(退出)机制、今后观测井点的勘选等提供科学依据,对今后异常识别和震情跟踪具有重要意义. 相似文献
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针对2008年汶川MS 8.0地震后江苏地区的地震观测井水位上升现象,选取了苏18井和井周边地表水进行了水化学和物理分析,研究了井水位异常与地表水和大气降水的补给关系,讨论了井水补给来源及其与高邮-宝应MS 4.9地震的关系。离子含量和氢氧同位素结果表明,苏18井水主要为大气降水成因,存在一定的水岩作用。应用氯离子分析降水对地下水的补给,其结果显示大气降水在井水补给源中占了重要份额,井水位的突然上升与同期降水量增加有一定关系。水库水与苏18井水之间存在水力联系,大气降水增多致使水库水位升高,对该井水位变化有一定的影响。综合分析认为,大气降水的增多致使水库蓄水增加,水库水通过侧向渗透补给造成了2011年苏18井的水位显著升高。苏18井异常不是由构造活动引起的,作为高邮-宝应MS 4.9地震的前兆依据不充分。水化学和物理结合的方法为今后判别地下水位异常干扰提供了依据。 相似文献
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本文对影响地下水位变化的两类主要干扰因素进行了机理讨论,应用数学方法对干扰因素进行了定量、半定量排除,并提取出一些地震信息,对唐山地震前唐山地区地下水位异常有些新认识。 地下水是地壳的组成部分,是新构造运动中极其活跃的因素。十多年来的地震预报实践表明,地下水位是一种较有希望的预报手段,干扰因素的排除与地震信息的提取是实现地震预报的前提,是评价预报手段能力最基本的标志。从地震预报观点出发,我们把数据中与地震发生直接或间接关系的部分称为信息,除了信息以外的部分统称为干扰。 地下水位的主要干扰因素可分为两类。一类是通过含水层水量变化引起的水位变化(其主要因素是降水和开采);另一类是含水层应力应变状态改变引起的水位变化(其主要因素是气压、固体潮、地面荷载、地震波等附加应力对含水层的影响)。地下水位值是包含干扰与信息在内的一个综合物理量。由于各种干扰因素的特征和周期不同,故可利用数学方法或其它分析方法将它们从水位中一一分离出来或予以扣除,从而提取出地震信息 相似文献
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地下水动态受水文因素影响较大,对地震和构造活动具有较灵敏的响应。判别并排除各种水文干扰,确认地下水在地震前的异常变化,对提高地震分析预报能力,具有重要作用。马家沟矿井水位动态观测层与地下水开采层为同一含水层,井水位于2010年出现破年变异常,加速持续上升,截至2015年,最大上升幅度约30 m。依据该井水文地质环境特征,根据唐山市区2001-2015年地下水位、降雨量、地下水开采量实测资料,建立合理多元回归模型和三维地下水流动模型,发现地下水开采量减少应为影响马家沟矿井水位动态的可能因素。文中采取的异常识别与分析方法,可为其他类似井孔的地下水动态异常识别及判定提供一定借鉴。 相似文献
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地下水动态的异常变化既有可能是地震前兆异常信息, 也有可能是某种环境干扰所引起, 如降雨和地下水开采等. 如何及时识别并排除环境干扰, 对于成功判定地震前兆异常至关重要. 云南姚安井水位于2009年10月后出现了下降趋势的异常变化, 截止2011年底, 最大下降幅度达3 m. 为分析该井水位异常变化的形成原因, 依据姚安井水文地质环境特征, 建立了相关的数学物理模型, 定量分析了降水量和地下水开采量对该井水位的影响. 分析结果表明, 姚安井2009年后出现的水位大幅下降可能与区域降水量减小导致的地下水开采活动增强有一定的相关性. 文中所采取的异常识别与分析方法, 对今后地下水动态异常识别及前兆信息判定工作具有一定的借鉴意义. 相似文献
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穿越断裂带的观测井能够提供特殊的构造运动信息,其水位动态是构造活动、降雨等各种因素综合作用的结果.对由降雨引起的水位动态进行模型解译,有利于更加准确地提取断裂带的构造活动异常.根据断裂带地下水循环的基本特征进行简化,利用响应函数法描述入渗补给的滞后特征,建立了降雨-水位动态的组合水箱模型.该模型被用于分析北京八宝山断裂带大灰厂观测孔2008年上半年的水位动态,发现2008年5月存在显著的异常.这种异常可能与局部或区域的构造活动有关,也可能是断裂带结构参数变化的结果. 相似文献
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许多地下流体监测井在地震发生时都能记录到同震水位变化,而利用地下水位的同震响应特征以及水位固体潮效应可以反演地震对含水层产生的体应变量．本文尝试从大尺度上对大地震引起的体应变变化进行研究,为此收集了位于我国大陆不同构造活动区5口地下流体监测井两年半的水位数据资料进行分析,去除干扰项,提取出水位固体潮成分,进行调和分析求取潮汐因子,并反演出汶川MS8.0地震对这5口井所在含水层产生的体应变量．结果显示,汶川大地震对这5口井 含水层造成的体应变量基本在10-7量级. 地震引起的体应变随距离的衰减规律比较复杂,其不仅与震中距有关,而且与活动断裂带的展布和地壳岩体结构等密切相关． 相似文献
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以钟祥马岭井历年水温观测资料为研究对象,发现2套SZW-1A型数字水温仪记录的数据曲线自2016年7月以来均具有“V”型异常特征,从观测系统、地震、降雨等因素进行分析,排查干扰因素,并分析水温变化的可能机理,认为现该异常应为降雨干扰所致。干扰机理如下：降雨量累积值达40 mm以上,降雨迅速补充地下水,浅层冷水经井段223—246 m处存在的岩石裂隙、断层、溶洞等渗入井孔,造成静水位迅速上升,井水温度随之下降,上下层冷—热水之间的热传导使得位于井孔深部的水温下降;降雨结束,地表水渗入量减少,水温逐渐恢复正常。 相似文献
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Hydrologic precursors to earthquakes: A review 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Evelyn A. Roeloffs 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,126(2-4):177-209
This review summarizes reports of anomalous flow rates or pressures of groundwater, oil, or gas that have been interpreted as earthquake precursors. Both increases and decreases of pressure and flow rate have been observed, at distances up to several hundred kilometers from the earthquake epicenter, with precursor times ranging from less than one day to more than one year. Although information that might rule out nontectonic causes does not appear in many published accounts of hydrologic anomalies, several recent studies have critically evaluated the possible influences of barometric pressure, rainfall, and groundwater or oil exploitation. Anomalies preceding the 1976 Tangshan, China, and the 1978 Izu-Oshima-Kinkai, Japan, earthquakes are especially well-documented and worthy of further examination.Among hydrologic precursors, pressure head changes in confined subsurface reservoirs are those most amenable to quantitative interpretation in terms of crustal strain. The response of pressure head to earth tides determines coefficients of proportionality between pressure head and crustal strain. The same coefficients of proportionality should govern the fluid pressure response to any crustal strain field in which fluid flow in the reservoir is unimportant. Water level changes in response to independently recorded tectonic events, such as earthquakes and aseismic fault creep, provide evidence that a calibration based on response to earth tides may be applied to crustal strains of tectonic origin.Several models of earthquake generation predict accelerating stable slip on part of the future rupture plane. If precursory slip has moment less than or equal to that of the impending earthquake, then the coseismic volume strain is an upper bound for precursory volume strain. Although crustal strain can be only crudely estimated from most reported pressure head anomalies, the sizes of many anomalies within 150 kilometers of earthquake epicenters appear consistent with this upper bound. In contrast, water level anomalies at greater epicentral distances appear to be larger than this bound by several orders of magnitude.It is clear that water level monitoring can yield information about the earthquake generation process, but progress higes on better documentation of the data. 相似文献
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地震和降雨是滑坡产生的两大诱因。一般认为二者的耦合作用概率小,在现实中也较少发现有此种实例。岷县漳县6.6级地震中黄土地震滑坡广泛发生,本文通过现场调查,在相关降雨量数据、航空影像空间分析的基础上研究了两个地点(永光村滑坡和堡子村滑坡)的典型地震黄土滑坡的空间展布特征和发生、发展过程,分析了诱发机制。结果发现:(1)地震滑坡呈带状分布与地震发震构造走向一致;(2)位于极震区范围的永光村黄土滑坡具有泥流特征,土体含水量可达塑限以上,是由于过量降水和强地震动耦合作用下发生;(3)堡子村黄土地震滑坡则主要为强地震动所诱发,滑距较短,并具滞后发生特性。本结果对未来地震中滑坡的预防与防治具有借鉴意义。 相似文献
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依据邯郸地区地质构造及20多年的观测资料,系统研究了地下水位、地壳形变的正常与异常动态变化及其相互关系.本区地形变的主控因素是西部太行山隆起和东部华北平原大幅度沉降的继承性运动,造成地形变向东南方向倾斜;在大区域的周期性强降水后由于地质构造因素地形变向西北向倾斜,形成水位和形变的正常动态变化.采用有效的定量方法提取异常,显示一部分反向西北倾斜的异常与华北的中强震有较好的对应关系.故强降水引起的地倾斜变化不应看作干扰,而是一种引起地壳变形地震前兆的外动力因素,应予高度关注. 相似文献
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Statistical analyses of the effect of a drainage tunnel on landslide hydrogeological characteristics
A high groundwater level is highly relevant to the slope instability. Drainage tunnel is an effective method for groundwater level control, but its effect on landslide hydrogeological characteristics is rarely discussed. This study analysed the changes of the landslide hydrogeological characteristics under the effect of a drainage tunnel by real-time monitoring of rainfall, groundwater level, and surface displacement. The trend and mutation of groundwater level are analysed by the Mann–Kendall test and the Mann–Kendall mutation test. The memory effect of groundwater in the landslide area was analysed using autocorrelation analysis. The response characteristics of groundwater level to rainfall were evaluated using cross-correlation analysis and mutual information theory. Variations of groundwater levels were further investigated based on hydrograph analysis. Results showed that the groundwater level had a downward trend from 2016 to 2017. The significant downward trend of groundwater levels began in August 2016. The memory effect of groundwater levels was longer under the effect of the drainage tunnel. Before the construction of the drainage tunnel, the response time of groundwater to rainfall was less than 3 hr and rainfall can generate dramatic groundwater level variations. After the drainage tunnel was completed, time lags can be observed in the groundwater response, and the variation of groundwater levels was smaller than before. A strong correlation was found between groundwater levels and the landslide movement. This study demonstrated that the drainage tunnel had effectively controlled the groundwater level in the landslide and ensured the stability of the landslide. 相似文献
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Yeeping Chia Jessie J. Chiu Yi-Hsuan Chiang Tsai-Ping Lee Chen-Wuing Liu 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(1):5-16
Changes of groundwater level, ranging from a fall of 11.10 m to a rise of 7.42 m, induced by thrust faulting during the 1999
Mw 7.6, Chi-Chi earthquake have been recorded in 276 monitoring wells in Taiwan. Most coseismic falls appeared near the seismogenic
fault as well as other active faults, while coseismic rises prevailed away from the fault. Coseismic groundwater level rises
and falls correlated fairly well with hypocentral distance in the vicinity of the thrust fault. We found a major difference
of coseismic changes in wells of different depths at most multiple-well stations. The recovery process of coseismic groundwater
level changes is associated with the confining condition of the aquifer. Cross-formational flow is likely to play an important
role in groundwater level changes after the earthquake. In the hanging wall of the thrust fault, an abnormal decline of groundwater
level was observed immediately before the earthquake. The underlying mechanism of the unique preseismic change warrants further
investigation. 相似文献