TRAJECTORY DIAGNOSIS OF AIR PARCELS IN HIGH-AND LOW-LEVEL JETS FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL CASE DURING MEIYU SEASON OF 1991          下载免费PDF全文

Tao Zuyu  Huang Wei 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1993,7(4):486-494

Trajectory diagnostic methods were used to analyze air parcels of high-and low-level jets during the heavy rainfall of 4-6 July 1991.It is found that air parcels above rainfall area travelled from the entrance of the high-level jet,passing through the jet center and reached the exit region.Upper tropospheric divergence over rainfall area resulted from decelerative motion of the jet flow.Warm and moist southwest flow converged and ascended ahead of the low-level jet.The decreasing of low-level pressure as a result of high-level divergence that caused the low-level jet became unexpectedly strong.  相似文献   

1991 年6月江淮持续暴雨的云系特征分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

叶惠明  张凤英 《应用气象学报》1993,4(3):293-300

通过对GMS静止卫星的红外数据处理，获得了1991年夏季江淮梅雨期暴雨大范围的平均云分布。对1991年6月6次江淮暴雨过程逐时和3小时的GMS红外云图动画和照片的分析，得到了该地区梅雨期暴雨的三种中低纬云系相互作用的云型演变模型图，并利用由卫星气象中心处理的NOAA卫星的TOVS水汽反演资料，结合低层的θse和急流分析，给出了1991年6月江淮暴雨的水汽输送的一些特征。  相似文献   

初夏亚洲季风区环流低频振荡与长江下游持续暴雨   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

杨秋明 《应用气象学报》1993,4(3):320-326

利用主成份分析和非整数波功率谱分析研究了1991年初夏亚洲季风区逐日500 hPa环流的时空分布特征。结果表明，主成份分析得到的前5个特征向量的空间分布与各个季风系统的活动有关，其时间系数存在显著的12—22天准周期振荡和28—31，43—65天的低频振荡周期，它们与长江下游暴雨形成有密切联系。当第一主成份从谷点上升且第二主成份稳定地增大（减小）时，长江下游出现持续暴雨。亚洲副热带海洋加热异常和海陆热力差异产生的不均匀加热分布激发的各种低频波及其相互作用导致向热带外能量频散的异常，是引起长江下游持续暴雨的  相似文献   

1991 年江淮暴雨的定量预报检验   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

董立清 《应用气象学报》1993,4(3):333-340

利用Threat Score方法，对1991年6月12—15日，6月29日—7月12日江淮持续暴雨的定量预报进行了检验。结果表明，对于大雨和暴雨预报，目前主观预报优于客观预报。数值预报在降雨定量预报的某些方面有了一定突破。  相似文献   

EOF迭代方案恢复夏季大气环流场的试验          下载免费PDF全文

张邦林  丑纪范  孙昭渤 《大气科学》1993,17(6):673-678

本文设计了一种恢复夏季大气环流场的EOF(经验正交函数)迭代方案,并利用1951～1984年中国夏季降水距平场和北半球500hPa夏季高度距平场作镢复试验,数值试验效果较好.此项工作表明:利用某些长时间序列的资料通过EOF迭代方案恢复历史时期大气环流是可行的.  相似文献   

Advanced use into rainfall prediction of three-dimensionally scanning radar   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

E. Nakakita  S. Ikebuchi  M. Shiiba  T. Takasao 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1990,4(2):135-150

A computational method for the determination of rainfall distribution for applications in short term rainfall prediction is presented here. The method is strongly influenced by the experience gained from the observation and analysis of data gathered on a heavy rainfall event in 1986 that occurred during the Baiu Season in Japan. The method is based on the concept that rainfall occurs as an interaction between an instability field, appropriately modeled, and a field of water vapor under the influence of topography. The results from this computational method showed good agreement with the temporal variation in the rainband that moved across the observation field in 1986. Towards determination of the parameters in the computational model, another method for the determination of the rainfield is also developed. This second method determines the rainfall distribution from estimation of the conversion rate of water vapor to liquid water through use of data from a three dimensional scanning radar. The results are consistent with those obtained from the first method.  相似文献   

Rainfall estimation using raingages and radar — A Bayesian approach: 1. Derivation of estimators     

D. -J. Seo  J. A. Smith 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1991,5(1):17-29

Procedures for estimating rainfall from radar and raingage observations are constructed in a Bayesian framework. Given that the number of raingage measurements is typically very small, mean and variance of gage rainfall are treated as uncertain parameters. Under the assumption that log gage rainfall and log radar rainfall are jointly multivariate normal, the estimation problem is equivalent to lognormal co-kriging with uncertain mean and variance of the gage rainfall field.The posterior distribution is obtained under the assumption that the prior for the mean and inverse of the variance of log gage rainfall is normal-gamma 2. Estimate and estimation variance do not have closed-form expressions, but can be easily evaluated by numerically integrating two single integrals. To reduce computational burden associated with evaluating sufficient statistics for the likelihood function, an approximate form of parameter updating is given. Also, as a further approximation, the parameters are updated using raingage measurements only, yielding closed-form expressions for estimate and estimation variance in the Gaussian domain.With a reduction in the number of radar rainfall data in constructing covariance matrices, computational requirements for the estimation procedures are not significantly greater than those for simple co-kriging. Given their generality, the estimation procedures constructed in this work are considered to be applicable in various estimation problems involving an undersampled main variable and a densely sampled auxiliary variable.  相似文献   

利用GMS－4红外云图资料定量测量淮河流域汛期降水     

傅德胜  尹新怀  徐慧 《南京气象学院学报》1994,(2)

提出和介绍了利用ＧＭＳ－４红外云图资料定量测量淮河流域汛期降水的ＣＴ－ＴＲＣ（ｃｌｏｕｄｔｏｐｔｅｍｐｅｒａｔｕｒｅｒａｉｎｆｕｌｌｃｕｒｖｅ，云顶温度－降水量曲线）方法及实现步骤，并结合个例进行了分析。  相似文献   

应用双光谱云图判识梅雨锋云系降水等级   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

郁凡  陈渭民 《南京气象学院学报》1994,17(2):171-176

用１９９１年梅雨期间的部分ＧＭＳ红外，可见光数字云图及同时的地面实测降水资料，从分析各等级降水云的二维频数分布着后，探求降水强度与红外，可见光亮度值之间的关系，最终实现用红外，可见光双光谱阈值法判识大暴雨，暴雨，大雨，中小雨４个等级的降水云。  相似文献   

THE RESPONSE OF SUMMER DRYNESS/WETNESS PROBABILITY IN NORTH CHINA TO GLOBAL WARMING   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Huang Jiayou 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1994,8(1):41-50

Using the data of summer(June—August)precipitation during the period of 1951—1990 in 14 stations over NorthChina,the wetness probability(WP)series based on gamma distribution has been built.Main temporal and spatial char-acteristics for the series of WP in the stations are extracted by using empirical orthogonal functions(EOFs).The spatialpatterns show that the dryness/wetness variations in the stations in the area are consistent with each other and its maincharacteristics can be represented by the WP series in Beijing.Having analysed the WP series of 120 years(1870—1989)in Beijing,the results show that the dry tendency has a re-sponse to the global warming.The variation of the dryness/wetness in the stations is associated with the temperaturevariation in the Northern Hemisphere.Their relation is negative.The degree of the reliance is associated with the centuryvariation of the temperature.  相似文献