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101.
强降水云物理过程的三维数值模拟研究 总被引：35，自引：9，他引：26
利用改进的三维完全弹性强对流云模式,模拟了1998年7月21日晨发生在武汉附近的特大暴雨个例,结果显示,该模式模拟得到的降雨量与实测接近,计算得到的雷达回波强度最大值也与实际观测相一致,说明该模式对实际对流性强降水具有较好的模拟能力.在此基础上,通过冷云和暖云两种不同情况的比较分析,研究了云微物理过程在强降水形成过程中的作用.模拟结果表明,详细云物理过程的考虑对深入理解武汉这次强降水的形成过程是有意义的.该个例雨水的形成主要是暖雨过程,冰相微物理过程对该对流性强降水过程的发展和演变有重要的促进作用.在形成雨水的冷相过程中,霰的融化及其在0 ℃层下碰并云水形成雨水的过程是主要的.模式云在0 ℃层附近存在明显的雷达回波亮带,亮带中间含有强回波核和及地下挂回波.分析表明,这种强回波核和下挂回波的产生主要是由于冰相粒子在0 ℃层融化形成的,融化的冰相粒子与云滴碰并又加速雨水的产生.在这些融化的冰相粒子中,贡献最大的是霰粒.文中还分析了该强降水暴雨云维持长时间强降水的云物理机制.在低层大气温暖高湿和环境风切变有利条件下,倾斜上升气流和下沉气流之间的准稳态结构可能是暴雨强降水得以长时间维持的重要原因. 相似文献
102.
西江流域致洪暴雨的准双周振荡及大气环流模型 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
为了做好西江流域致洪暴雨的中期预报,采用小波分析、Lanczos滤波器分析了1961—2008年西江流域13次致洪暴雨期间降水与850 hPa风场的低频振荡特征,研究了850 hPa风场的10～30天低频传播对致洪暴雨的影响,并采用合成分析建立了由西风带系统导致的致洪暴雨准双周振荡的大气环流模型。结果表明,致洪暴雨期间降水主要以10～20天的准双周振荡为主,它们多数与西江流域850 hPa风场8～35天振荡的正位相有较好的对应关系。来自西江流域以南逐渐向北传播的低频纬向风或来自30 °N附近逐渐南传并加强的低频纬向风与多数来自西北太平洋向西传播的低频纬向风在西江流域相遇,是导致致洪暴雨具有准双周振荡的可能原因之一。当500 hPa巴尔喀什湖以东的高压脊开始隆起并逐渐东移,我国东北-华北-长江中下游逐渐转为明显的华北低槽控制,华南由青藏高原东部弱的西风槽转为明显的高空槽控制,副高不断加强西伸,同时850 hPa上空来自孟加拉湾穿过中南半岛的西南风不断加强,位于华南急流轴以西弱的气旋性弯曲也不断加强,地面上转为东高西低、等压线经向度明显,西江流域致洪暴雨开始并逐渐达到强盛期。这些特征可作为西江流域致洪暴雨的中期预报提供参考依据。 相似文献
103.
中国长江流域洪涝灾害和持续性暴雨的发生特征及成因 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
主要综述了最近关于中国长江流域洪涝灾害和持续性暴雨发生特征和成因的研究。表明:长江流域洪涝灾害和持续性暴雨的发生频率非常高,并给经济造成了严重损失,长江流域洪涝灾害发生不仅具有准两年周期的年际变化,而且具有明显的年代际变化,从1977年之后,长江流域洪涝灾害和持续性暴雨增多;并且,表明了无论是长江中、下游地区或是长江上游的川东地区持续性暴雨都是在"鞍"型大尺度环流系统的配置下发生,这是由于这种大尺度环流系统的配置不仅利于水汽输送到长江中、下游地区或上游的川东地区,而且利于在"鞍"型中心地区产生垂直对流不稳定,从而引起暴雨中尺度系统的发展。此外,还综述了长江流域洪涝灾害和持续性暴雨发生的成因的研究,这些研究表明了长江流域洪涝灾害和持续性暴雨发生的年际和年代际变化是与大气-海洋-陆面耦合的东亚季风气候系统的变异密切相关。 相似文献
104.
持久性有机污染物(POPs)具有环境持久性和半挥发性, 可以在区域及全球范围内传输和分布。森林植被和林下土壤富含有机质, 森林生态系统因此成为POPs主要的储存库之一。植被叶片可快速吸附大气POPs, 并通过叶片凋落、雨水冲刷和干沉降等过程加强或加速大气POPs 向地面的沉降, 并使森林土壤成为POPs 的“汇”, 从而形成所谓的“森林过滤效应”, 进而影响POPs 在全球的分布。进入森林的POPs 在森林生态系统中将经历一系列的环境过程。本文简要介绍了森林过滤效应的特征和影响因素, 综述了叶片对大气POPs 的吸附、叶片凋落和干湿沉降、POPs 在土壤中的迁移和损失等3 个主要环境过程的研究进展, 报道了松针、树皮和苔藓作为被动采样器反映的森林POPs空间分布趋势。最后, 提出了森林POPs研究中亟待解决的科学问题, 并指出未来中国森林POPs研究的可能方向。 相似文献
105.
利用常规实测资料、NCEP刷CAR再分析资料、T213分析资料,对绵阳地区2008年9月22—27日出现的持续性暴雨过程进行环流形势及物理量场分析,结果表明：此次降水过程可分为两个明显的降水时段,其区域不同、强度不一;副高、冷空气、两条水汽通道以及台风是此次过程的主要影响系统;第一降水时段的各物理量水平皆大于第二时段,不稳定能量、水汽和气流的辐合、辐散区分布及上升下沉气流的位置和强度对暴雨的强度和落区预报有较好的指示意义。 相似文献
106.
Agricultural productivity in South Africa is negatively affected by drought as a result of frequent periodic dry spells and increasing crop water demands resulting in poor crop development and low yields. Thus, we embarked on this study which aims at investigating dry spell occurrences in relation to growing season of maize in the Luvuvhu River Catchment. Daily rainfall data (1945–2014) from 12 stations which represent the catchment fairly well was utilized in this study. Three consecutive planting dates were staggered based on three consecutive onsets of the rainy season. Dry spells were categorized into three groups: short, medium and long dry spells. The data was then subjected to theoretical distribution fitting using the Anderson–Darling goodness-of-fit test; and probabilities of occurrence were computed using a probabilistic model that best fits the data. Trend analysis was performed on the frequency of dry spells per growing period using the non-parametric Spearman's rank correlation test. Out results indicated high probabilities (≥80%) of short dry spells at all the stations irrespective of the timing of planting. Further analysis revealed that a risk of yield reduction with planting following the first onset of rains was higher than that with planting following the second and third onsets. In order to minimize this risk, farmers can be advised to plant between mid-November to mid-December. Trend analysis indicated no trend for all the various dry spell lengths except for Thohoyandou with a decreasing trend and Sigonde with a weak increasing trend in long dry spells. Such findings can be used to describe drought conditions for improvement of agricultural productivity and food security, in a given area. 相似文献
107.
AbstractThis paper addresses the hydrological and meteorological extremes that may be deduced from the taxation records of the estates of Brtnice, T?ebí? and Velké Mezi?í?í, all in the Moravian-Bohemian Highlands of the Czech Republic, for the years 1706–1849. At that time, damage to agricultural crops constituted grounds for tax remission for individual farmers and landowners. Where it survives, the relevant administrative documentation generally includes a statement from the applicant, a report by the official commission tasked with checking the contents of it, and any decisions made by taxation authorities at regional and “land” level (the Jihlava regional office and the Moravian Land Administration (“Gubernium”) respectively). Data extracted may include the type of event, dating, places of occurrence and damage done. The chronology of hydrological and meteorological extremes (torrential rain, flash flood, flood, hailstorm, lightning, frost) covers the period 1706–1849, but only four events are evident before 1748 and there is a gap in records between 1757 and 1789. Extremes are analysed from a spatio-temporal point of view. A total of 97 extreme events (171 extremes of particular type) were identified for the region studied. Torrential rain, hailstorm and flash flood were the major devastating phenomena, and occurred mainly from May to August. Torrential rain and hailstorm are clearly attributable to thunderstorms with very intense convection. Five outstanding events and their impacts upon individual farmers are described in detail. The results are discussed with respect to uncertainties in the basic data and in the context of the Czech Lands, because only some of the extremes disclosed are known and confirmed by other documentary data.
Editor Z.W. KundzewiczCitation Dolák, L., Brázdil, R., and Valá?ek, H., 2013. Hydrological and meteorological extremes derived from taxation records: the estates of Brtnice, T?ebí? and Velké Mezi?í?í, 1706–1849. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1620–1634. 相似文献
108.
本文在改进的永久散射体(PS)探测方法基础上,应用高分辨率永久散射体雷达干涉(PSI)探测上海市地表沉降,并对沉降原因进行了详细分析。实验选取2008年4月至2010年1月间,由德国卫星TerraSAR-X(TSX)所获取的18幅X波段(波长为3.1 cm)高分辨率SAR影像为数据源,进行PS探测、PSI建模、形变提取和分析。实验结果表明,改进的PS探测方法探测出的PS点是合理和可靠的,且高分辨率SAR影像对地面硬目标识别能力较强,显著提高了PS点的密度和覆盖范围。沉降探测结果显示,最大相对沉降速率达30 mm/yr,平均沉降速率为11.5 mm/yr。 相似文献
109.
利用1961—2017年中国地面观测站日降水资料、全球大气多要素和海表温度月资料,分析华南区域持续性强降水过程的气候特征,诊断并比较与华南前汛期、后汛期区域持续性强降水年际变化相关的大气环流和海表温度异常特征。结果表明,3—12月华南都可能出现持续性强降水过程,其中汛期4—9月的占了94.4%。伴随着区域持续性强降水的年际变化,华南本地垂直上升运动显著异常是前汛期和后汛期的共同点,但前汛期、后汛期在华南及周边环流异常、水汽输送来源以及海温异常分布等方面都存在一定差异。在前汛期华南区域持续性强降水偏重年,赤道西太平洋区域海温偏低,由于大气罗斯贝波响应使西太平洋副热带高压偏强,热带西太平洋向华南区域水汽输送加强,从而有利于区域持续性强降水偏重。后汛期华南区域持续性强降水偏重年的海温异常分布是赤道中东太平洋区域正异常、东印度洋至西太平洋暖池区负异常,海温异常通过西北太平洋副热带高压、南海热带季风强度、水汽输送和垂直环流等多方面,导致后汛期区域持续性强降水偏重。 相似文献
110.
Relationship Between the Western Pacific Subtropical High and the Subtropical East Asian Diabatic Heating During South China Heavy Rains in June 2005 
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下载免费PDF全文 Based on the daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the position variation of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in June
2005 and its relation to the diabatic heating in the subtropical East Asia are analyzed using the complete vertical vorticity
equation. The results show that the position variation of the WPSH is indeed associated with the diabatic heating in the subtropical
East Asian areas. In comparison with June climatology, stronger heating on the north side of the WPSH and relatively weak
ITCZ (intertropical convergence zone) convection on the south side of the WPSH occurred in June 2005. Along with the northward
movement of the WPSH, the convective latent heating extended northward from the south side of the WPSH. The heating to the
west of the WPSH was generally greater than that inside the WPSH, and each significant enhancement of the heating field corresponded
to a subsequent westward extension of the WPSH. In the mid troposphere, the vertical variation of heating on the north of
the WPSH was greater than the climatology, which is unfavorable for the northward movement of the WPSH. On the other hand,
the vertical variation of heating south of the WPSH was largely smaller than the climatology, which is favorable for the anomalous
increase of anticyclonic vorticity, leading to the southward retreat of the WPSH. Before the westward extension of the WPSH
in late June 2005, the vertical variation of heating rates to (in) the west (east) of the WPSH was largely higher (lower)
than the climatology, which is in favor of the increase of anticyclonic (cyclonic) vorticity to (in) the west (east) of the
WPSH, inducing the subsequent westward extension of the WPSH. Similar features appeared in the lower troposphere. In a word,
the heating on the north-south, east-west of the WPSH worked together, resulting in the WPSH extending more southward and
westward in June 2005, which is favorable to the maintenance of the rainbelt in South China. 相似文献