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91.
基于中尺度数值模式WRF,选取新疆两次强降水过程,设计3个试验方案,其中试验1为控制试验,试验2提高分辨率,试验3提高分辨率并调整物理参数化方案,初步评估不同分辨率和参数化方案对新疆区域2m温度、10m风速、降水预报的影响。结果表明:(1)提高分辨率对2m温度、10m风速模拟精度均有提高,2m温度预报精度提高约0.5℃,降低了日间温度模拟冷偏差;10m风速预报精度提高约0.5m/s,降低了风速模拟正偏差;但提高分辨率后,模式出现虚假降水预报的情况。(2)提高分辨率并调整物理参数化方案后,2m温度模拟误差略有减小,模拟偏差减小约0.2℃;10m风速模拟误差增大约0.5m/s,模拟偏差增大超过0.5m/s;对降水落区、量级的模拟精度显著提高,减小了降水中心的模拟强度,对虚假降水预报有一定修正。 相似文献
92.
利用山东滨州市7个国家气象站与61个人影作业站点观测资料,结合高空观测及探空、ECMWF再分析等资料,对2001—2011年滨州降雹时空分布特征、天气系统和物理量特征、降雹形势分型和预报方法进行研究。得出:(1)降雹日数年均8.6次,总体呈现明显下降的年际变化特征;4—10月可降雹,6—7月降雹最多;降雹主要出现在14时—翌日02时;北部沿海相对较多。(2)降雹形势主要有5种类型:冷涡型降雹、低槽型降雹、横槽型降雹、西北气流型降雹、其他小范围降雹。根据冷涡中心位置冷涡型划分为两个关键区;低槽型可分为前倾槽、阶梯槽、较深低槽、与中低纬度共同作用的槽;横槽型降雹范围广、破坏性大;西北气流型存在连续性。(3)4类13种物理量具有不同分布特征和变异系数,均具有较好的代表性。不同月份、不同降雹影响程度和影响系统,物理量具有较明显差别。(4)0℃层高度在1370~5331m时,7种物理量可用于预报冰雹,K≥17℃、T850-500≥25℃、LI≤2℃、SRH≥0.1m^2·s^-2、SSI≥240、SWEAT≥100、Cape≥2J·kg^-1时可能降雹。6月、7—8月和其它月分别有3种、1种、3种物理量指标组合可用于预报冰雹,物理量的组合和数值有差异。 相似文献
93.
In this article, the possibility of sharing rain barrels and the potential benefit of reducing storage size through physical and non‐physical connections of rain barrels in a community are investigated. Using the concepts of homogeneous/heterogeneous users in rainwater harvesting systems (RWHS), two simple cases of a community composed of four prospective users are examined. The first is performed with the users who have the same mean and variance in water demands (homogeneous users), and the second is with the users with different means and variances (heterogeneous users). To take account for the rainfall characteristics in different places, historical records from six cities in the USA are used for storage–reliability–yield analysis. The result indicates that required total storage can be reduced by connecting multiple rain barrels. In addition, a significant difference is found between homogeneous and heterogeneous user groups. Homogeneous users do not achieve a substantial benefit from connecting their rain barrels; these users may even be disadvantaged by sharing. In contrast, heterogeneous users receive benefit by reducing the total required storage. Most benefit is expected between users with maximum difference in mean water demands. The reduction in storage size was as considerable as 37% in this study. The quantity of storage reduction depends on locations and target reliabilities. Knowledge of the benefits and limitations of rain barrel connections can improve RWHS performance through ability to customize a network plan for individual users. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
94.
源区黑潮热输送低频变异及其与中国近海SST异常变化的关系 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
基于长时间序列的水温和盐度资料，通过动力计算方法估算了源区黑潮（18°N断面）热输送量，分析了源区黑潮热输送变异和中国近海SST异常的年际、年代际时空变化特征及两者之间的相互关系．结果显示，源区黑潮热输送异常呈现出显著的以2—7、10～20a和约30a为主周期的年际、年代际变化，且具有线性增强的长期变化趋势．并约于1976年前后发生了一次显著气候跃变．中国近海SST年际、年代际异常变化的最显著区域位于渤海、黄海、东海海域和台湾海峡．源区黑潮热输送变异在年际、年代际尺度上与中国近海SST异常变化密切相关，源区黑潮热输送变异可能是影响中国近海SST异常变化的重要因素之一． 相似文献
95.
A new methodology to classify European North-East Atlantic transitional waters into ecological types has been developed based on the most important hydrological and morphological features that are likely to determine the ecology of aquatic systems in transitional waters. Hydrological indicators help identifying if a transitional water area is dominated by fresh or sea water and/or by intertidal or subtidal areas, while morphological indicators allow an estimation of the complexity of the transitional water and the diversity of the habitats involved. Twelve transitional waters of the southern Bay of Biscay were classified using this methodology and the five hydro-morphological types obtained were validated with benthic macro-invertebrate data. Transitional waters with a complex morphology showed the highest values of species diversity, while those with a smaller tidal influence showed lower species diversity. The ‘Scrobicularia’ and ‘Abra’ assemblages, previously identified in the study area, were found to be related to different types of transitional waters. The ‘Abra’ assemblage only appeared in estuaries with a complex morphology and dominated by tidal influences, while the ‘Scrobicularia’ assemblage was detected in all the transitional waters except for a single coastal lagoon. This classification of transitional waters may therefore be useful to establish the biological reference conditions needed for European Directives. 相似文献
96.
Based on the theory of gravity‐driven groundwater flow systems, we have developed a complex Flow System Sand‐Box Model (FSM). It enables the visual observations of the development and characteristics and temporal evolution of complex Tóthian flow systems in the laboratory. The configuration of the regional, intermediate and local flow systems can be controlled and observed; hydraulic head, flow direction and travel time can be measured; and the scale and shape of the sub‐flow systems as well as the path lines and flow lines can be observed directly. The experiments demonstrate the Tóthian flow systems in a small basin with multiple sources and sinks. Greater local topographic (water table) undulation will lead to larger local flow systems. Greater regional and less local topographic undulation will enhance the development of intermediate and regional flow systems. In homogeneous media, increasing fluid‐potential differences between source and sink increase the spatial scale of the generated flow systems. The FSM is a useful teaching aid and experimental device to study and develop an intuitive insight into gravity‐driven groundwater flow systems. It helps to visualize and understand the hydraulic properties and controlling factors of Tóthian flow systems and may be used to study problems related to the chemical and temperature characteristics of the flow systems as well. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
97.
98.
利用1951~2003年HadISST资料集的表层海水温度（SST）资料,讨论了印度洋-西太平洋暖池（IPWP）海域,尤其是印度尼西亚贯穿流（ITF）及其周边海域SST的季节及年际变化的时空特征.研究结果表明,整个研究海域SST的年际变化均与ENSO相关,但印度洋与南海的响应特征与西太平洋的相反且不同步.前者海温变化滞后Nio3指数3~6个月,而热带太平洋西边界和ITF流经海域海温则超前1~3个月.沿ITF及其东印度洋出口,SST的年际变化规律不同于热带印度洋而与太平洋的相似,分析表明其在较大程度上受到ITF海洋桥的影响.在季节尺度上,印度洋和太平洋赤道海域SST的波动规律也有明显不同.以巽他岛弧（苏门答腊、爪哇和小巽他群岛）为界,从赤道西太平洋向西沿ITF流径,太平洋一侧SST的季节变化以0.5a周期的波动占主导,印度洋一侧则以1a周期占主导. 相似文献
99.
100.
