全球变暖对长江洪水的可能影响及其前景预测     

施雅风  姜彤  王俊  张强  苏布达  秦年秀 《湖泊科学》2003,15(Z1):1-15

要长江流域近150a间发生的1870、1931、1935、1954与1998年特大洪水灾害损失严重;长江洪水是我国的心腹之患.1990年以来,长江大洪水高频发生,达6次.长江洪水的发生,除湖泊蓄洪功能减弱等因素外,与全球变暖有关.20世纪90年代为近千年中全球最暖的年代,水循环加快,长江中下游夏季降水量为近120a最多的十年,高出1961-1990平均值112mm;而降雨集中和大暴雨降水事件的增加是洪水增加的主要原因.区域气候模式模拟在CO₂倍增时,长江流域温度升高2.2℃,夏季降水增加10%-20%,气溶胶的增加可能使此值降低一些.考虑气候变暖可能促进潜在蒸发增加9%-15%的假定情景,计算在降水增加10%,蒸发增加9%条件下,最大洪峰流量在大通站将会达到8.4×10⁴ m³/s左右,己超过1998年洪峰流量;汉口站7.9×10⁴ m³/s,超过有记录以来所有的洪峰流量;而在宜昌站高达6.94×10⁴ m³/s,超过自有实测记录以来的除1896年和1981年以外所有的洪峰流量.假定情景的最高值出现在降水增加20%,蒸发增加15%时,大通站流量将达到9.45×10⁴ m³/s,超过该站近百年最大值,1954年的9.26×10⁴ m³/s;宜昌站将出现7.82×10⁴ m³/s流量,超过1882年以来所有实测记录值,但比1870年据洪痕推算的10.5×10⁴ m³/s仍有逊色.未来气候若继续变暖,降水量增加将给长江洪水防御带来巨大的压力.但上述估算是粗糙的,有一定的不确定性,需在以后的研究中进一步改进.  相似文献   

1990s长江流域降水趋势分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

苏布达  姜彤  施雅风  Stefan BECKER  Marco GEMMER 《湖泊科学》2003,15(Z1):38-48

依据国家气象局提供的实测月降水和日降水资料,运用Mann-Kendall(M-K)非参数检验法验证了降水趋势,并通过空间插补法,由点扩展到面,分析了1990s长江流域降水变化特征,发现1990s长江流域降水变化以降水在时间和空间分布上的集中度的增加为主要特点:时间上,年降水的增加趋势以冬季1月和夏季6月降水的集中增加为主;一日降水量大于等于50mm的暴雨日数和暴雨量在1990s也有了较明显的增加.空间上,年降水、夏季降水、冬季降水的增加都以中下游区的增加为主,尤其以鄱阳湖水系、洞庭湖水系的降水增加为主.1990s长江流域春季和秋季降水的减少以5月和9月两个汛期月份的降水减少为主,除金沙江水系和洞庭湖水系等少数地区外,流域大部分地区降水呈减少趋势.上述1990s出现的降水趋势明显与近年来全球变暖背景下长江流域各地区不同的温度及水循环变异有关.  相似文献   

长江流域降水变化及其趋势演变   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Stefan BECKER  Marco GEMMER  姜彤 《湖泊科学》2003,15(Z1):123-130

本文对中国长江流域降水趋势进行了分析.指出对月降水量而言,20世纪后50年不同区域出现1不胃的降水趋势变化特征.趋势插补法研究表明中国降水时空分布趋势十分明显.对长江流域长期降水资料分析研究指出夏季月份降水时间更集中,而对年降水而言在一些站则表现出明显的周期变化.  相似文献   

《伤寒论》是中医辨治疫病的奠基之作（一）          下载免费PDF全文

袁长津 《应用海洋学学报》2023,39(6):1

东汉张仲景所著《伤寒杂病论》一书中,虽没有后世疫病之名目,却真实记载了大量辨治疫病之证治方药的条文及案例经验。笔者抚今追古,重温经典,结合自己多年的临床经验及其体认,并引证了当代诸多医家名宿之论,认为《伤寒论》堪称我国古代疫病防治的奠基之作。《伤寒论》虽以辨治寒疫及寒湿疫为主,但也包括湿热类、热毒类及瘀毒类疫病的证治。其所论及疫病的类型及疑似病种,寒湿类疫病主要包括：流行性感冒及其并发呼吸道和消化道感染,流行性脑脊髓膜炎,流行性腹泻（寒性）及寒性霍乱,流行性出血热等急性传染病;温热类疫病最为确定的是“黄疸”和“下利”,其证候与现代所谓急性病毒肝炎和急性细菌性痢疾基本相同;该书还开示了辨治热毒疫、瘀毒疫之法门,对后世影响深远。笔者还从《伤寒论》全篇整体分析,体悟到张仲景以“正邪博弈”为核心理念辨治外感疫病的思想,分别采取以祛邪为主、以扶正为主或以祛邪扶正并重的治则大法;并开创了病证结合、以辨证论治为主的中医诊疗模式。  相似文献   

1950s以来鄱阳湖流域降水变化趋势及其持续性特征     

霍雨  王腊春  陈晓玲  蒙海花 《湖泊科学》2011,23(3):454-462

以鄱阳湖流域1950s至2005年10个台站的日降水量为基础,采用距平分析、Mann-Kendall非参数检验对鄱阳湖流域1950s以来的年、季降水特征和变化趋势进行分析,并以此为基础,结合Hurat指数,从3年、5年、10年三个时间尺度上分析该流域未来降水的变化趋势.结果表明,鄱阳湖流域年内降水分配不均,年际变化较为...  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal downscaling of projected precipitation in the 21st century: indication of a wetter monsoon over the Upper Mahanadi Basin,India     

Subbarao Pichuka 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(3):467-482

An attempt is made to assess the future trend of spatio-temporal variation of precipitation over a medium-sized river basin. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM, version 4.2) is used to downscale the outputs from two general circulation models (GCMs) for three future epochs: epoch-1 (2011–2040), epoch-2 (2041–2070) and epoch-3 (2071–2100). Considering the Upper Mahanadi Basin as a test bed, the study results indicate a “wetter” monsoon (June–September) and the annual increase in precipitation is 12% during epoch-3, which is consistent for both GCMs. Monthly analyses indicate that the precipitation totals are likely to increase and the magnitude of increase is greater during monsoon months than non-monsoon months. The number of month-wise daily extremes increases in most months in the year. However, the maximum percentage increase (with respect to baseline period, 1971–2000) in the number of extreme events is found in the non-monsoon months (specifically before and after the monsoon).  相似文献   

Verification of short-term runoff forecasts for a small Philippine basin (Marikina)     

David Kneis  Catherine Abon  Axel Bronstert  Maik Heistermann 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(2):205-216

Storm runoff from the Marikina River Basin frequently causes flood events in the Philippine capital region Metro Manila. This paper presents and evaluates a system to predict short-term runoff from the upper part of that basin (380 km²). It was designed as a possible component of an operational warning system yet to be installed. For the purpose of forecast verification, hindcasts of streamflow were generated for a period of 15 months with a time-continuous, conceptual hydrological model. The latter was fed with real-time observations of rainfall. Both ground observations and weather radar data were tested as rainfall forcings. The radar-based precipitation estimates clearly outperformed the raingauge-based estimates in the hydrological verification. Nevertheless, the quality of the deterministic short-term runoff forecasts was found to be limited. For the radar-based predictions, the reduction of variance for lead times of 1, 2 and 3 hours was 0.61, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively, with reference to a “no-forecast” scenario, i.e. persistence. The probability of detection for major increases in streamflow was typically less than 0.5. Given the significance of flood events in the Marikina Basin, more effort needs to be put into the reduction of forecast errors and the quantification of remaining uncertainties.  相似文献   

Evaluation of nonlinear models for precipitation forecasting     

Abazar Solgi  Vahid Nourani  Mohammad Bagherian Marzouni 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(16):2695-2704

Prediction of factors affecting water resources systems is important for their design and operation. In hydrology, wavelet analysis (WA) is known as a new method for time series analysis. In this study, WA was combined with an artificial neural network (ANN) for prediction of precipitation at Varayeneh station, western Iran. The results obtained were compared with the adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and ANN. Moreover, data on relative humidity and temperature were employed in addition to rainfall data to examine their influence on precipitation forecasting. Overall, this study concluded that the hybrid WANN model outperformed the other models in the estimation of maxima and minima, and is the best at forecasting precipitation. Furthermore, training and transfer functions are recommended for similar studies of precipitation forecasting.  相似文献   

Multivariate properties of extreme precipitation events in the Pearl River basin,China: Magnitude,frequency, timing,and related causes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Limin Duan  Jiangyu Zheng  Wei Li  Tingxi Liu  Yanyun Luo 《水文研究》2017,31(21):3662-3671

Daily precipitation/temperature data collected at 74 weather stations across the Pearl River basin of China (PRBC), for the years 1952–2013, were used to analyse extreme precipitation (EP) processes at annual and seasonal scales in terms of precipitation magnitude, occurrence rates, and timing. Peak‐over‐threshold sampling, modified Mann‐Kendall trend tests, and Poisson regression model were utilized in this study. Causes driving the observed statistical behaviours of EP were investigated, focusing particularly on the impacts of temperature change and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). EP events, which occur mainly during April and September, are most frequent in June. At an annual scale, they are subject to relatively even interannual distributions during the wet season. Significant trends were observed in the magnitude, frequency, and timing of EP events during the dry seasons, although no such trends were seen during the wet seasons. Seasonal shifts in EP can easily trigger sudden flood or drought events and warming temperatures, and ENSO events also have significant impacts on EP processes across the PRBC, as reflected by their increased magnitude and frequency in the western PRBC and decreased precipitation magnitudes in the eastern PRBC during ENSO periods. These results provide important evidence of regional hydrological responses to global climate changes in terms of EP regimes in tropical and subtropical zones.  相似文献   

北大西洋涛动和南半球环状模不同位相配置对我国南方夏季降水的协同影响          下载免费PDF全文

李景鑫  任宏利  陆波  刘景鹏  康延臻 《地球物理学报》2017,60(10):3730-3744

利用我国气象台站观测资料和再分析格点数据,诊断研究了前期春季(4-5月份)北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO)和南半球环状模(Southern Annular Mode,SAM)在不同位相配置下对我国南方夏季降水异常变化的协同影响作用.分析结果表明,在剔除ENSO最强信号影响后,我国南方夏季降水异常分布显著地依赖于前期春季两个较为独立的年际变率主模态(NAO和SAM)位相的不同配置,即降水异常型主要表现为两个因子单独作用的叠加效果,当前春SAM正位相偏强而NAO负位相偏强时,二者的影响呈现协同正效应,我国南方夏季(6-7月份)降水表现为全区正异常,特别在长江中下游及其以南附近地区最为显著;反之,当前春SAM呈偏强的负位相而NAO偏强的正位相配置时,二者的影响呈现协同负效应,对应我国夏季长江中下游地区降水表现为显著负异常.对其可能的影响机理研究表明,在SAM与NAO位相相反情况下,二者均会通过海气相互作用过程影响到热带大西洋北部海温的异常变化,进而形成协同作用,增强北大西洋海温三极子模态异常信号,从而通过欧亚大陆的遥相关波列对东亚夏季风和我国南方降水产生显著影响.相比之下,当SAM与NAO同位相时,可能表现为抵消效应,不利于北大西洋海温三极子发展,从而削弱对我国南方夏季降水的影响,此方面还有待进一步研究.  相似文献