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22.
张昭栋  张华 《地震研究》1999,22(1):32-37
地震前兆综合危险度是以系统论为基础的一种综合地震预报的新方法。利用山东省每年年底的地震会商报告给出的地震前兆异常,而不是取震后的震例总结或论文给出的异常,通过“专家系统”的思想,对每一异常事件进行综合评估,计算出无量纲的、归一化的地震前兆综合危险度,分析了1995年9月20日山东苍山52Ms级地震前综合危险度的变化特征。震前综合危险度出现了一次明显的高值异常变化,震后危险度很快下降恢复到正常水平。  相似文献   
23.
地震前兆台网的运行直接影响产出的观测数据质量。观测数据平均连续率和平均数据完整率可以反映地震前兆台网的运行质量。对中国地震背景场探测项目试行期间(2014年)及正式启动后2015年度的观测数据质量,从以上2个指标进行分析,并对比原有仪器运行质量,可知背景场项目试运行期间,各学科台网投入仪器运行稳定,观测数据符合相关要求,总体质量良好,观测仪器可以投入正式运行。  相似文献   
24.
以震中迁移始发点的前兆讨论了唐山7.8级地震震中位置的预测,并以此为例分析了汶川8级地震和芦山7级地震的前兆问题。另外,从震中迁移延长线上的前兆来讨论了唐山大震的发生时间。  相似文献   
25.
应用文安地震200km范围内的定点形变观测资料,在研究断层活动性质的基础上,进一步综合分析在文安地震前后地壳形变的时空演化特征及其与地震活动的关系,结果表明:(1)部分测项在震前均出现张性或者压性转折变化,或者阶跃变化;(2)地表潮汐平面应变状态在中强地震前后表现出不同的变化特征;(3)平面应变参数曲线2011年前后发生同步转折变化,且变化幅度很大,但首都圈及附近地区并没有中强以上地震发生,可能与引发2011年3月日本9.0级特大地震的板块构造应力场变化有关。  相似文献   
26.
Since late 2002, a continuous automatic monitoring network is operating in Tuscany, Central Italy, to investigate the geochemical response of selected aquifers to local seismic activity. The monitoring is aimed at identifying possible earthquake geochemical precursors. The network is currently constituted by six stations, all equipped with sensors for the measurement of temperature, pH, redox potential, electrical conductivity, CO2 and CH4 dissolved concentration, that have been installed in the areas of highest seismic risk of the region. By combining geochemical data gathered from the automatic station of Gallicano (Garfagnana, Northern Tuscany), and obtained via chemical analyses of spring water samples collected during periodic field surveys in the area surrounding this station, the most significant aspects of the deep fluid circulation paths feeding the Gallicano thermo-mineral system have been investigated, and the geochemical baseline of the Gallicano spring defined. The CO2 continuous signal recorded by the Gallicano automatic station has been then processed over the period 2003–2013 in the search for anomalies possibly related to local seismic activity. A substantial anomaly in CO2 content has been observed at Gallicano in conjunction with the Alpi Apuane earthquake (M = 5.2) of 21 June 2013.  相似文献   
27.
This work investigates the occurrence of disturbances across a wide range of VLF and LF frequencies received prior to a seismic event (Mw = 4), that took place on May 12th 2012, the epicenter of which was very close (14 km) to the VLF/LF station. The signals analyzed were emitted from five VLF and five LF European transmitters. This seismic event produced precursory ionospheric disturbances, identified as spectral distortion, three days before its occurrence, providing a distinct pattern open to further investigation. Although the basis of the ionosphere interaction with seismic phenomena has been well documented in previous studies, the close proximity of the receiver to the seismic event provides a new perspective to this study. The monitored signals have undergone normalization and then they have been processed by means of the Hilbert-Huang Transform. Diagrams of the signals relevant to the phenomena are presented and the disturbances that are present in the raw data are accentuated through further processing.  相似文献   
28.
汶川M_s8.0地震前电离层VTEC的异常变化   总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3       下载免费PDF全文
利用地基GPS观测资料反演的垂直电子总含量(VTEC),本文考察了2008年5月12日汶川M_s8.0地震期间的电离层变化.在考察过程中,以前10天的VTEC均值和伴随的2倍标准偏差作为参考来识别电离层异常.最终的考察分析结果表明:(1)VTEC的异常增加出现在5月3日和5月9日,而VTEC的异常减小出现在4月29日和5月6日;(2)所有这4天的电离层VTEC异常持续时间均超过了4 h,且异常自东向西漂移;(3)相对于电离层的非扰动状态,在5次电离层异常的峰值时刻,震中附近VTEC增加或减小超过30%的空间区域沿经、纬向分别超过了4000 km和1500 km.鉴于地震期间的日-地空间环境和电离层VTEC异常特征,我们认为,5月3日下午和5月9日的VTEC正异常可能是本次汶川地震的电离层前兆.  相似文献   
29.
Stick-slip of fault in laboratory accompanies change of temperature. Temperature change is not only concerned with sliding friction, but also with the stress state of the sample. In this article, we use infra-red thermal imaging system as wide-range observation means to study the temperature variation of different stages during the deformation of sample. The rock sample for the experiment is made of granodiorite from Fangshan County with a size of 300mm×300mm×50mm. It is cut obliquely at an angle of 45°, forming a planar fault. Two-direction servo-control system was used to apply load on the sample. The load in both directions was forced to 5MPa and maintained constant (5MPa) in the X direction, then the load in the Y direction was applied by a displacement rate of 0.5μm/s, 0.1μm/s and 0.05μm/s successively. The left and below lateral of the sample were fixed, and the right and top lateral of the sample were slidable when loaded. The experiment results show not only the temperature change from increase to decrease caused by conversion of stress accumulation to relaxation before and after the peak stress, but also opposite variation of temperature increase on fault and temperature decrease in rock during instability stage. Most important of all, we have found the temperature precursor identifying the position of instability through the temperature variation with time along the fault. It shows that rate of temperature increase of instability position keeps relative high value since the stage of strongly off-linear stage, and accelerates in stage of meta-instability. After separating the effect of friction and stress, we found that temperature increase occurs in the rock near the fault instead of on the fault, which means the mechanism of temperature increase is stress accumulation. Temperature of fault at the instability position does not increase, which means the position is locked. We speculate that the position of locked area on fault with high stress accumulation near the fault may be the future instability position. It is of significance of studying temperature variation during stick-slip to the monitoring of earthquake precursors. Heat caused by friction of earthquake needs long time to transfer to the surface and could not be detected as a precursor. While the stress of surface rock near the fault would change as the stress of interior rock changes, which could cause detectable temperature variations. The research purpose of this article is to find special change positions before instability. As the temperature variations are caused by stress and slip of fault, the results are also meaningful to analysis of stress and displacement data related to earthquake precursors.  相似文献   
30.
孙小龙  王俊  向阳  王熠熙 《地震》2016,36(4):120-130
基于《中国震例》记录的1966年以来的震例, 按异常测项和变化类型分类统计了与地下流体相关的异常数量与震级、 震中距、 持续时间的相关性。 结果显示: 中国大陆M6.5以下地震的地下流体异常数量与震级无相关性, M6.5以上地震异常数量随震级的增大而增多, 二者呈指数关系; 地下流体异常多集中于距震中300 km范围内, 且各测项间无明显区别, 异常数量与震中距之间呈Gamma分布特征; 地下流体异常时空演化主要表现为 “向震中收缩”、 “构造控制”和“相对集中”三种典型特征, 震前异常数量主要表现为“持续增长”型和“先增后减”型两类, 且以“先增后减”型居多。 本文统计得到的地下流体前兆信息特征, 可为今后地震预报实践提供一定参考。  相似文献   
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