Estimation of Tsunami Hazard in New Zealand due to South American Earthquakes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

William Power  Gaye Downes  Mark Stirling 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(2-3):547-564

We develop a probabilistic model for estimating the tsunami hazard along the coast of New Zealand due to plate-interface earthquakes along the South American subduction zone. To do this we develop statistical and physical models for several stages in the process of tsunami generation and propagation, and develop a method for combining these models to produce hazard estimates using a Monte-Carlo technique. This process is largely analogous to that used for seismic hazard modelling, but is distinguished from it by the use of a physical model to represent the tsunami propagation, as opposed to the use of empirical attenuation models for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.  相似文献   

在地震破裂面源模型及在概率地震危险性分析中的应用方法.   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

胥广银  高孟潭 《地震学报》2007,29(3):275-285

目前国内外常用的概率地震危险性分析方法中, 一般把未来可能发生的地震震源（潜在震源）简化为点源或者是线源. 但对于较大震级的地震，仍然采用点源或线源模型来描述潜在震源显然是不合理的. 为此，在概率地震危险性分析方法中本文提出了潜在地震破裂面源模型，并以1999年9月21日台湾集集7.6级地震的车笼埔断层为例，探讨了其在地震危险性分析中的应用方法. 结果表明:①采用潜在地震破裂面源模型是合理的，因为它可以模拟地震破裂面与地震动影响场的三维展布特征，尤其适用于较大震级地震的近场区域； ② 潜在地震破裂面源的大小、产状，对近震源场点的地震危险性分析和地震区划结果有明显的控制影响.   相似文献   

Probabilistic assessment of earthquake recurrence in the January 26, 2001 earthquake region of Gujrat, India     

Jayant Nath Tripathi 《Journal of Seismology》2006,10(1):119-130

Kutch region of Gujrat is one of the most seismic prone regions of India. Recently, it has been rocked by a large earthquake (M _w = 7.7) on January 26, 2001. The probabilities of occurrence of large earthquake (M≥6.0 and M≥5.0) in a specified interval of time for different elapsed times have been estimated on the basis of observed time-intervals between the large earthquakes (M≥6.0 and M≥5.0) using three probabilistic models, namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal. The earthquakes of magnitude ≥5.0 covering about 180 years have been used for this analysis. However, the method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been applied for computation of earthquake hazard parameters. The mean interval of occurrence of earthquakes and standard deviation are estimated as 20.18 and 8.40 years for M≥5.0 and 36.32 and 12.49 years, for M≥6.0, respectively, for this region. For the earthquakes M≥5.0, the estimated cumulative probability reaches 0.8 after about 27 years for Lognormal and Gamma models and about 28 years for Weibull model while it reaches 0.9 after about 32 years for all the models. However, for the earthquakes M≥6.0, the estimated cumulative probability reaches 0.8 after about 47 years for all the models while it reaches 0.9 after about 53, 54 and 55 years for Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal model, respectively. The conditional probability also reaches about 0.8 to 0.9 for the time period of 28 to 40 years and 50 to 60 years for M≥5.0 and M≥6.0, respectively, for all the models. The probability of occurrence of an earthquake is very high between 28 to 42 years for the magnitudes ≥5.0 and between 47 to 55 years for the magnitudes ≥6.0, respectively, past from the last earthquake (2001).  相似文献   

Seismic risk analysis of coastal area of Pakistan     

ShahidA.Khan M.AliShah M.Qaisar 《地震学报(英文版)》2003,16(4):382-394

Estimation of seismic hazard for the fast developing coastal area of Pakistan is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. On the basis of seismotectonics and geology, eleven faults are recognized in five seismic provinces as potential hazard sources. Maximum magnitude potential for each of these sources is calculated. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at the seven coastal cities due to the maximum credible earthquake on the relevant source are also obtained. Cities of Gwadar and Ormara with acceleration values of 0.21g and 0.25g respec-tively fall in the high seismic risk area. Cities of Turbat and Karachi lie in low seismic risk area with acceleration values of less than 0.1g. The Probabilistic PGA maps with contour interval of 0.05g for 50 and 100 years return period with 90% probability of non-exceedance are also compiled.  相似文献   

地震统计区划分不确定性对场点地震危险性计算的影响   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

潘华  黄玮琼 《地震学报》2003,25(2):199-204

用3个不同的地震统计区划分方案，采用概率地震危险性分析方法，分别计算了研究区地震危险性，并讨论了地震统计区划分方案的不确定性对地震危险性结果的影响．结果表明，地震统计区划分方案的不确定性，对局部场点的地震危险性分析结果的影响是不容忽视的．这些场点通常位于地震统计区边界，以及不同方案震级上限变化大的区域．   相似文献   

岩土参数不确定性的分析与评价     

徐超  李国 《上海国土资源》1998,(1):35-39

结合岩土工程实践的特点,定性分析参数不确定性的来源、分类、特征和处理方法,对认识岩土参数的变异性及概率极限状态设计准则的推广应用具有促进作用。  相似文献   

THE ACTIVITY FEATURES OF XIADIAN FAULT ZONE REVEALED BY RONGJIABAO TRENCH AND ITS PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION          下载免费PDF全文

YU Zhong-yuan  PAN Hua  SHEN Jun  LI Jin-chen  ZHANG Meng  DAI Xun-ye 《地震地质》1979,42(3):688-702

The time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the active faults based on the quantitative study of seismo-geology has the vital practical significance for the earthquake prevention and disaster management because it describes the seismic risk of active faults by the probability of an earthquake that increases with time and the predicted magnitude. The Poisson model used in the traditional probabilistic method contradicts with the activity characteristics of the fault, so it cannot be used directly to the potential earthquake risk evaluation of the active fault where the time elapsing from the last great earthquake is relatively short. That is to say, the present Poisson model might overestimate the potential earthquake risk of the Xiadian active fault zone in North China because the elapsed time after the historical M8 earthquake that occurred in 1679 is only 341a. Thus, based on paleoearthquake study and geomorphology survey in the field, as well as integrating the data provided by the previous scientists, this paper reveals two paleo-events occurring on the Xiadian active fault zone. The first event E₁ occurred in 1679 with magnitude M8 and ruptured the surface from Sanhe City of Hebei Province to Pinggu District of Beijing at about 341a BP, and the other happened in (4.89±0.68)ka BP(E₂). Our research also found that the average co-seismic displacement is ~(1.4±0.1)m, and the predicted maximum magnitude of the potential earthquake is 8.0. In addition, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of great earthquakes for Xiadian active fault zone in the forthcoming 30a is performed based on Poisson model, Brownian time passage model(BPT), stochastic characteristic-slip model(SCS)and NB model to describe time-dependent features of the fault rupture source and its characteristic behavior. The research shows that the probability of strong earthquake in the forthcoming 30a along the Xiadian active fault zone is lower than previously thought, and the seismic hazard level estimated by Poisson model might be overestimated. This result is also helpful for the scientific earthquake potential estimation and earthquake disaster protection of the Xiadian active fault zone, and for the discussion on how to better apply the time-dependent probabilistic methods to the earthquake potential evaluation of active faults in eastern China.  相似文献   

基于贝叶斯模式平均的东江流域降雨概率预报     

吴裕珍  钟逸轩  王大刚  吴文娇 《热带地理》2015,35(6):860-872

为验证贝叶斯模式平均（BMA）在东江流域的适用性,基于TIGGE多模式集合预报资料对东江流域不同预报时段（1、3、5及10日）以及不同地域（上、中及下游）应用BMA,得到的主要结论为：1）BMA的预报能力在时空上都较为稳定,预报效果较好;2）在各预报时段中BMA极大提高了预报的精度,其中预报时段越短,误差减少的幅度越大;3）当95%分位数已超过警戒的雨量时,应做好相关的预警和预防工作,但BMA也会出现误报和虚报的情况,需要进行权衡和风险的评估,同时这也是需进一步研究和完善的地方;4）结合其他国内外的研究来看,BMA对天气要素预报的订正作用可能具有普适性,值得推广使用。  相似文献   

基于主组分分析的概率神经网络损伤定位研究     

姜绍飞  杨晓楠  陈兆才  倪一清  高赞明 《地震工程与工程振动》2004,24(2):187-191

概率神经网络(PNN)以贝叶斯概率的方法描述测量数据,因而PNN在有噪声条件下的结构损伤检测方面具有巨大潜力。与此同时,PNN的网络规模随着训练样本的增加而增大,这极大地降低了网络运行速度。基于此,本文提出了基于主组分分析(PCA)的PNN损伤定位方法,分别用传统PNN(TPNN)、主组分分析PNN(PCAPNN)和自适应PNN(APNN)三种模型进行了悬索桥的损伤定位研究。研究发现,APNN的识别精度最好,PCAPNN次之,TPNN最差。但APNN需要很长的训练时间,网络规模较大;其他两个网络几乎不需要训练时间,且PCAPNN网络规模较其他两个网络减少了1／3～1／4。在低噪声情况下,PCAPNN的识别效果基本上等同于APNN。  相似文献   

Probabilistic seismic demand model for pounding risk assessment          下载免费PDF全文

Enrico Tubaldi  Fabio Freddi  Michele Barbato 《地震工程与结构动力学》2016,45(11):1743-1758

Earthquake‐induced pounding of adjacent structures can cause severe structural damage, and advanced probabilistic approaches are needed to obtain a reliable estimate of the risk of impact. This study aims to develop an efficient and accurate probabilistic seismic demand model (PSDM) for pounding risk assessment between adjacent buildings, which is suitable for use within modern performance‐based engineering frameworks. In developing a PSDM, different choices can be made regarding the intensity measures (IMs) to be used, the record selection, the analysis technique applied for estimating the system response at increasing IM levels, and the model to be employed for describing the response statistics given the IM. In the present paper, some of these choices are analyzed and evaluated first by performing an extensive parametric study for the adjacent buildings modeled as linear single‐degree‐of‐freedom systems, and successively by considering more complex nonlinear multi‐degree‐of‐freedom building models. An efficient and accurate PSDM is defined using advanced intensity measures and a bilinear regression model for the response samples obtained by cloud analysis. The results of the study demonstrate that the proposed PSDM allows accurate estimates of the risk of pounding to be obtained while limiting the number of simulations required. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献