北京及其周边地区夏季地闪活动时空特征分析   总被引：13，自引：9，他引：13       下载免费PDF全文

郑栋 孟青吕伟涛  张义军柴秀梅 马明 《应用气象学报》2005,16(5):638-644

利用M-LDARS闪电定位系统对北京及其周边地区1995～1997年6～9月的闪电观测数据, 分析闪电活动的时空分布特征。结果表明:闪电活动在时间分布上存在两个峰值时段, 13 :00～21:00和23:00～次日05 :00。通过对总地闪、分时段及峰值时段的地闪密度分析, 发现北京及周边地区闪电活动有几个明显的集中区域, 地闪高密度区主要出现在下垫面为山脉和水体的地方, 闪电活动与下垫面的水汽条件关系密切, 且正、负地闪的空间分布也呈现较大差异, 表明雷暴云的电荷结构存在一定差异。  相似文献   

计算非均匀地表通量的一种简化PDF及其应用   总被引：2，自引：4，他引：2  

刘晶淼  王纪军  丁裕国 《高原气象》2002,21(6):583-590

提出描述地表非均匀特性的简化概率密度函数（PDF），它可代替各种具体的PDF用于求解次网格尺度平均通量而不影响其精度，这种简化PDF可直接加入陆面过程模式方程组中进行陆－气通量交换的数值试验。它对非均匀地表陆面过程参数化具有一定的普适性。本文仅讨论了对称分布的简化计算（非对称分布另文讨论），列举了非均匀分布的观测事实，并以地表净红外辐射通量计算为例，详细验证了应用这种简化PDF的可行性和可靠性。  相似文献   

H2O-CH4-H2-CO2-CO-O2在高温、高压和高密度条件下的状态方程     

胡家文 《地球化学》2002,31(4):389-394

为了计算高温，高压和高密度流体的热力学性质，提出了一个具有19个参数的维里型状态方程，其中参数与温度间的函数关系采用由Sutherland位能函数导出的维里系数近似式。除临界点附近以外，在已报道的pVT数据所覆盖的大部分超临界区域内，该方程均可适用。用该方程对H2O，CH4，H2，CO2，CO和O2等流体pVT关系的计算结果令人满意，其中pVT上限分别为：91-610GPa,1.6-11.0cm^3/mol,4000-5000K。计算体积的平均偏 小于0．8％，最大偏差小于5．4％。  相似文献   

用翁氏模型图版设计早期油气田(藏)开发方案     

龚久和  冯文光 《矿物岩石》2002,22(4):75-77

由于缺乏早期资料，设计早期油气田（藏）开发方案是非常困难的。在制作翁氏模型的Qctm/No-ER图版和ER-ctR图版过程提出根据探明储量No、经济极限产量Qc、假定达到峰值产量的时间tm、最终采收率ER，由翁氏模型的Qctm/No-ER图版求取增长指数b，由翁氏模型ER-ctR图版求取ctR，再求出其他参数及所有的油气田（藏）开发指标，完成早期油气田（藏）开发方案设计。  相似文献   

Analogue study of particle segregation in pyroclastic density currents, with implications for the emplacement mechanisms of large ignimbrites   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

C. M. Choux  T. H. Druitt 《Sedimentology》2002,49(5):907-928

Abstract Analogue flume experiments were conducted to investigate the transport and sedimentation behaviour of turbulent pyroclastic density currents. The experimental currents were scaled approximately to the natural environment in three ways: (1) they were fully turbulent; (2) they had a very wide range of particle sizes and associated Rouse numbers (the ratio of particle settling velocity to effective turbulent eddy velocity in the current); and (3) they contained particles of two different densities. Two sets of surge‐type experiments were conducted in a 5 m long, water‐filled lock‐exchange flume at five different volumetric particle concentrations from 0·6% to 23%. In one set (one‐component experiments), the currents contained just dense particles; in the other set (two‐component experiments), they contained both light and dense particles in equal volume proportions. In both sets of experiments, the population of each component had a log‐normal size distribution. In the two‐component experiments, the size range of the light particle population was selected in order to be in hydrodynamic equivalence with that of the dense particles. Dense particles were normally graded, both vertically and downstream, in the deposits from both sets of experiments. The mass loading (normalized to the initial mass of the suspension) and grain size of the dense component in the deposits decreased with distance from the reservoir and were insensitive to initial total particle concentration in the currents. On the other hand, in the two‐component experiments, the light particles were extremely sensitive to concentration. They were deposited in hydrodynamic equivalence with the dense particles from dilute currents, but were segregated efficiently at concentrations higher than a few per cent. With increasing particle concentration, the large, light particles were carried progressively further down the flume because of buoyancy effects. Deposits from the high‐concentration currents exhibited reverse vertical grading of the large, light particles. Efficient segregation of the light component was observed even if the bulk density of the current was less than that of the light particles. In both sets of experiments, marked inflexions in the rate of downstream decline in mass loading and maximum grain size of the dense component can be attributed to the presence of two different particle settling regimes in the flow: (1) particles with Rouse numbers >2·5, which did not respond to the turbulence and settled rapidly; and (2) particles with Rouse numbers <2·5, which followed the turbulent eddies and settled slowly. The results are applied to the transport and sedimentation dynamics of pyroclastic density currents that generate large, widespread ignimbrites. Field data fail to reveal significant departures from aerodynamic equivalence between pumice and lithic clasts in three such ignimbrites: the particulate loads of some large ignimbrites are transported principally in turbulent suspensions of low concentration. In some ignimbrites, the well‐developed inflexions in curves of maximum lithic (ML) size vs. distance can be attributed to the existence of distinct high and low Rouse number particle settling regimes that mark the transition from an overcharged state to one in which the residual particulate load is transported more effectively by turbulence.  相似文献   

Probability Density Functions as Botanical-Climatological Transfer Functions for Climate Reconstruction     

Norbert Kühl  Christoph Gebhardt  Thomas Litt  Andreas Hense 《Quaternary Research》2002,58(3):381

We present a new procedure, the pdf method (pdf=probability density function), for reconstructing Quaternary climate utilizing botanical data. The procedure includes the advantages of the indicator species method by considering the fossil and modern presence and absence of taxa rather than their frequencies, thus avoiding the need for modern analog plant communities. Overcoming the problematic use of absolute limits to describe climate response ranges is the main progress of the pdf method in comparison to the indicator species method. This advantage results from estimating probability density functions (pdfs) for monthly mean January and July temperature conditional on the present day occurrence of single taxa. Gaussian distributions sufficiently approximate pdfs of many, although not all, studied taxa. On the assumption of statistical independence, the procedure calculates a joint pdf as the product of the pdfs of the individual taxa. This algorithm weights each taxon according to the extent of its climate response range expressed by its covariance structure. We interpret the maximum of the resulting pdf as the most likely climate and its confidence interval as the uncertainty range. To avoid an artificial reduction of uncertainty arising from the use of numerous similar pdfs, a preselection method is proposed based on the Mahalanobis distance between pdfs. The pdf method was applied to the Carpinus phase of a profile from Gröbern, Germany, that spans the last interglaciation (Eemian). The reconstructed most probable January and July temperatures of about 0.0°C and 18.4°C barely differ from the modern values of −0.5°C and 18.3°C.  相似文献   

山西夏县台热水井水氡异常特征与地震的关系初探     

范玉俊  黄春玲 《山西地震》2002,(4):24-27

为弄清山西夏县中心地震台水氡震前异常的原因 ,对山西夏县中心地震台热水井水氡 1984年以来的观测资料用概率论的数据处理方法进行了处理 ,以负异常的发震原理进行了分析 ,结果表明震前负异常的发震概率为 70 %。  相似文献   

Reconciling pyroclastic flow and surge: the multiphase physics of pyroclastic density currents     

Alain Burgisser  George W. Bergantz 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2002,202(2):405-418

Two end-member types of pyroclastic density current are commonly recognized: pyroclastic surges are dilute currents in which particles are carried in turbulent suspension and pyroclastic flows are highly concentrated flows. We provide scaling relations that unify these end-members and derive a segregation mechanism into basal concentrated flow and overriding dilute cloud based on the Stokes number (S_T), the stability factor (Σ_T) and the dense-dilute condition (D_D). We recognize five types of particle behaviors within a fluid eddy as a function of S_T and Σ_T: (1) particles sediment from the eddy, (2) particles are preferentially settled out during the downward motion of the eddy, but can be carried during its upward motion, (3) particles concentrate on the periphery of the eddy, (4) particles settling can be delayed or ‘fast-tracked’ as a function of the eddy spatial distribution, and (5) particles remain homogeneously distributed within the eddy. We extend these concepts to a fully turbulent flow by using a prototype of kinetic energy distribution within a full eddy spectrum and demonstrate that the presence of different particle sizes leads to the density stratification of the current. This stratification may favor particle interactions in the basal part of the flow and D_D determines whether the flow is dense or dilute. Using only intrinsic characteristics of the current, our model explains the discontinuous features between pyroclastic flows and surges while conserving the concept of a continuous spectrum of density currents.  相似文献   

应力释放模型的改进及其在研究台湾地区地震预测问题中的应用.   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

朱守彪  石耀霖 《地震学报》2002,24(2):162-168

应力释放模型过去主要用于研究大范围历史大地震活动规律．本文对应力释放模型进行了改进，对其能否运用于区域更小、时段更短、震级更低的情况进行了探讨；以台湾地区近百年6级以上地震为例的研究结果表明，应力释放模型仍然适用．在回溯性的地震预测检验中，用改进的应力释放模型计算出台湾地区地震发生的条件概率强度，并用其预测6级以上地震的发震时刻．结果表明，其预测精度优于泊松模型．   相似文献   

Application of Dangerous Probability Function in Risk Estimation of Surface Rupture Earthquake：Taking the Lingwu Fault in Ningxi1 Region as on Example     

Chai Chizhang  Zhang Wenxiao  Liao Yuhu  Xu Wenjun  Shen Xuhui  Tian Qinjian  Wei Kaibo  Chen Zhengwei 《中国地震研究》2002,16(1):60-70

Based on the fitting on paleoearthquake data of intra-plate regions in the northern part of Chi-na and giving a statistical model of time interdependence,the potential damage earthquakes in a definite future period and characteristics of present shocks along the Lingwu fault have been analyzed by using dangerous probability function and some new data concerned.We have in-ferred that the fault has entered a period that earthquakes will probably occur.There exists a potential danger that a strong earthquake with Ms7.0-7.5 will occur in 10-100a.  相似文献