Aspiration and reality: flood policy, economic damages and the appraisal process   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Clare Johnson  Edmund Penning-Rowsell  Sue Tapsell 《Area》2007,39(2):214-223

Research shows that flood damage potential has increased significantly in the last 15 years. At the same time, flood policy has shifted away from simplistic flood defence towards 'living with floods' and 'making space for water'. This paper explores the mis-match between the aspiration in policy ideals, the reality of rising potential economic damages and the inability of the flood risk appraisal process to match the aspiration with the reality. Unless investment appraisal procedures are changed, the increase in damages will undermine policy changes that seek a different pattern of flood risk management, away from economically dominated decision-criteria towards more sustainable objectives.  相似文献   

广义岭估计的直接解法   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

游扬声  王新洲  刘星 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2002,27(2):175-178

提出了广义岭估计的直接解法，该解法不需计算岭参数，可直接求得具有最小均方误差的解，并举例证实了该解法的优越性。  相似文献   

Quantitative Modelling of Multiphase Lithospheric Stretching and Deep Thermal History of Some Tertiary Rift Basins in Eastern China   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

LIN Changsong  ZHANG Yanmei  LI Sitian  LIU Jingyan  TONG Zhigang  DING Xiaozhong  LI Xichen Department of Energy Resources  China University of Geosciences  Beijing Department of Computer Sciences  China University of Geosciences  Beijing Research Institute of Sedimentary Basin  Mineral Resources  China Universityof Geosciences  Wuhan Exploration  Development Research Centre  China National Offshore Oil Corp.  Gaobeidian 《《地质学报》英文版》2002,76(3):324-330

The stretching process of some Tertiary rift basins in eastern China is characterized by multiphase rifting. A multiple instantaneous uniform stretching model is proposed in this paper to simulate the formation of the basins as the rifting process cannot be accurately described by a simple (one episode) stretching model. The study shows that the multiphase stretching model, combined with the back-stripping technique, can be used to reconstruct the subsidence history and the stretching process of the lithosphere, and to evaluate the depth to the top of the asthenosphere and the deep thermal evolution of the basins. The calculated results obtained by applying the quantitative model to the episodic rifting process of the Tertiary Qiongdongnan and Yinggehai basins in the South China Sea are in agreement with geophysical data and geological observations. This provides a new method for quantitative evaluation of the geodynamic process of multiphase rifting occurring during the Tertiary in eastern China.  相似文献   

淮南矿区潘三矿构造发育规律定量研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

周云霞  曹代勇等 《中国煤田地质》2002,14(3):4-6

本文采用煤层构造形态空间分析、断裂要素数理统计分析等方法,并引入断裂分形维数指标作为刻划断裂构造发育强度的指标之一,对准南矿区潘三矿地质构造进行了定性—定量分析,揭示了矿井地质构造发育的南北分带性和东西分区性特征。  相似文献   

基于GIS与空间统计分析的可持续发展度量方法研究——以缅甸Myingyan District为例   总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15  

张显峰  崔伟宏 《遥感学报》2001,5(1):34-40

利用空间信息系统所提供的强大空间数据处理和分析能力，并将之与统计分析软件包的统计分析功能进行有效的集成，建立了基于空间统计分析的可持续发展定量分析评价模型（ＳＢＳＡ）。从在缅甸中部Myingyan县的应用实例来看，该模型能够提示影响Myingyan县可持续发展能力的主导因子，通过对这些因子和可持续发展综合指数的定量化、空间化的分析，为政府部门规划区域综合发展方案，制定发展政策提供很好的决策支持。  相似文献   

川南区域构造变形及应力场遥感图像定量解析   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  

杨武年 《遥感学报》2001,5(1):62-68

采用区域构造变形及应力场遥感图像分层解析法，利用遥感TM图像对研究区宏观构造及有关的横张大节理系统进行详细解译，结合物探资料并应用力学方法对区域构造变形场和应力场进行了计算与分析，建立了该区构造变形场和应力场的三维彩色定量解析模式图，通过综合分析研究，对该区构造组合的空间格局及其控矿（油气）规律进行了探讨。  相似文献   

中国食物安全基础的定量评估   总被引：16，自引：1，他引：16  

傅泽强  蔡运龙  杨友孝 《地理研究》2001,20(5):555-563

食物安全水平受粮食生产和供给能力、食物结构的多样化以及居民的收入水平或获取维持生命所需食物的能力等因素共同作用和影响。本文从食物安全的内涵出发,依据评价指标选取原则,选定了与食物安全密切相关的评价指标,包括粮食自给率、食物消费水平及居民消费水平等,构建了食物安全可持续性综合指数模型,计算了1950～1998年我国食物安全可持续性综合指数,对我国食物安全可持续状况进行了单因子和多因子综合评价。结果表明:在50年代我国处于食物基本安全状态,60～70年代处于食物不安全状态,80年代初期及至90年代已进入食物安全阶段。从60年代开始食物安全水平逐年提高,80年代以来进入持续良性发展阶段。  相似文献   

Quantitative models for reconstructing catchment ice-extent using physical-chemical characteristics of lake sediments     

P.E. Noon  H.J.B. Birks  V.J. Jones  J.C. Ellis-Evans 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2001,25(3):375-392

The physical characteristics of surface sediments from a suite of pristine lakes on Signy Island, maritime Antarctic, were used to develop a quantitative link between catchment ice-extent and lake-sediment response. Percentage dry weight, median particle size, percentage loss-on-ignition and wet density of the lakes' surface sediments were the most significant variables explaining contemporary catchment ice-extent. Two independent reconstruction models – Partial Least Squares (PLS) and a Modern Analog Technique (MAT) – were applied to dated sediment cores at two sites on Signy Island. The validity of the reconstructions was tested against historical information on catchment ice-extent. With sufficiently high sedimentation rates and sampling resolution, the models can predict sub-decadal changes in ice-extent. The model results are best regarded as indicators of erosion resulting from meltwater activity in the catchment. Comparison of results with Twentieth Century climate records affirms the hypothesis that climatic warming is the most likely cause for the ice retreat observed on Signy Island during the last 40 yrs. Similar reconstruction models using these simple sedimentary measures could be developed for analogous locations in the Antarctic and in Arctic and Alpine regions.  相似文献   

植物响应气候变化模型模拟研究进展   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

李双成 《地理科学进展》2001,20(3):217-226

尽管温室气体的增温效应及幅度大小具有很大的不确定性 ,存在许多分歧 ,然而植物对于气候变化的响应研究仍然成为众多学者关注的热点。近十年来 ,国内外学者从模型模拟的角度进行了多层面定量研究。归纳起来 ,已有的模型可以归并为生物地理相关模型、生态响应面模型、立地模型、植物生理模型以及统计模型等五类。本文逐一进行了评述 ,分析了它们的优势与不足 ,最后对模型模拟的发展趋势进行了展望。  相似文献   

Quantitative biostratigraphy and species evolutionary sequence     

Xu Guirong  Gong Shuyun  Wang Yongbiao  YUAN Wei 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2001,44(7):587-599

Introduction of species evolutionary sequence into the quantitative biostratigraphy is a significant work, either for studying biologic evolution or for making stratigraphic correlation and reconstructing geologic history. The quantitative biostratigraphy is to determine biostratigraphic event sequences by using probabilistic analysis. The evolutionary sequence systematics can efficiently ascertain species evolutionary sequences. Two methods have been proposed to determine the sequence of species-disappearance events: (1) species extinction events can be closed by last occurrence events using quantitative biostratigraphic analysis; (2) the duration of a species may be approximately replaced by the duration of its parent species. To combine these two methods for determining the sequence of species disappearance is the best way up to now. A consulting standard sequence that consists of the speciation sequence of Permian waagenophylloid corals and the biostratigraphic event sequence of other important fossils in Permian is used as an example. The group spearman rank-correlation test is used to test the consulting standard sequence by comparing four types of calculations and two kinds of sequences and to find abnormal events. Based on the found abnormal events in the test, the consulting standard sequence is revised to deal with different conditions. Sequences of speciation and species-disappearance, and species duration are determined. Application of species evolutionary sequence to quantitative biostratigraphy can largely improve the quality of biostratigraphic event sequence. In stratigraphic correlation, furthermore, event sequences have higher precision than range biozones.  相似文献