多维联合概率理论对三峡工程设计洪水的计算   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

逯义军  刘德辅  谢波涛  姜云鹏 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2007,37(3):497-502,496

首次将多维联合概率理论应用到三峡大坝设计洪水的风险分析,并用随机模拟方法(ISPUD)对四维联合概率分布进行了求解,得出在长江上游干流及主要支流来水量出现的不同组合和最不利组合情况下,相应三峡大坝不同联合重现期的设计洪水。可用于三峡工程的风险分析及防洪调度。  相似文献   

杭州湾乍浦断面潮流分布特征   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

羊天柱  张俊彪  施伟勇 《海洋学研究》2002,20(4):1-7

根据2000年9月在杭州湾乍浦断面设置的8个潮流同步观测站的资料,对该断面潮流分布特征进行了分析和探讨,结果表明:该断面大潮涨急时呈现两个大流速核;断面南部的流速要比北部的大,涨潮流速大于落潮流速。这对了解杭州湾水文特征有着一定意义,同时为杭州湾跨海大桥的设计建设提供参考。  相似文献   

1998年长江巨洪与厄尔尼诺事件     

冯利华  张强 《海洋学研究》2001,19(4):13-16

1997～ 1 998年出现了 2 0世纪中最强的一次厄尔尼诺事件。根据长江洪水与厄尔尼诺事件的实测资料 ,指出 1 998年的长江巨洪与这次厄尔尼诺事件具有较密切的关系。同时讨论了厄尔尼诺事件影响长江洪水的物理途径 ,这对长江巨洪的长期及超长期预报具有较重要的指示作用  相似文献   

浙江主要气象灾害概述     

温树伟  张淑云 《海洋学研究》1991,9(1):65-71

气象灾害每年都有,只是轻重程度不同。就全国和全省范围来说,很少有真正风调雨顺的年份。本文根据1951～1988年38年的气象历史资料及有关政府部门的材料、简报、报道,统计出台风、洪涝、海上大风和强对流等几种主要气象灾害对浙江经济造成损失和伤亡人数。文中对主要气象灾害的特点、一般规律和灾情作了概述,并列出一些典型实例,提出了预防气象灾害的意见。  相似文献   

长江口涨、落潮槽底沙输移趋势探讨   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

刘高峰  沈焕庭  王永红  吴加学 《海洋通报》2003,22(4):1-7

选择长江口南港南小泓和南港主槽作为典型涨、落潮槽为研究对象，以2001年9月所采底沙的颗粒分析资料为根据，并结合实测水文、泥沙资料进行水动力分析，运用Gao-Collins粒径趋势分析模型分析了底沙输移趋势，结果表明：南小泓的底沙主要是来自口门附近，由于涨潮流强于落潮流而使底沙向上游输移，即SE—NW方向，而南港主槽的底沙主要来自上游，由于落潮流强于涨潮流而使泥沙向下游输移，即NW—SE方向。  相似文献   

基于GIS城市洪水淹没模拟分析   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文

向素玉  陈军 《地球科学》1995,20(5):575-580

城市洪水淹没范围动态模拟分析是城市防洪规划与防治决策的一个重要基础工作。本文主要研究洪水从翻堤口出发在地理空间蔓延、扩散、动态行进及确定淹没范围的数字模拟方法。为此,根据数学形态学及测地圆概念,研究设计了洪水扩散范围的“膨胀”模拟算法和淹没范围搜索算法,用于查询淹没通块中从翻堤处到任一点之间的淹没路径和ｔ时刻洪水扩散范围。  相似文献   

Magnetostratigraphic evidence from the Cold Creek bar for onset of ice-age cataclysmic floods in eastern Washington during the Early Pleistocene     

Christopher J. Pluhar  Bruce N. Bjornstad  Robert S. Coe 《Quaternary Research》2006,65(1):123-135

This study provides a detailed magnetostratigraphy of sediments composing the Cold Creek cataclysmic flood bar in the Pasco Basin, Washington. Our interpretation suggests onset of Missoula floods or similar events prior to 1.1 myr, later than previously suggested by Bjornstad et al. [Bjornstad, B.N., Fecht, K.R., Pluhar, C.J., 2001. Long history of pre-Wisconsin, Ice Age cataclysmic floods: evidence from southeastern Washington State. Journal of Geology 109 (6), 695-713]. Nonetheless these data suggest that Channeled Scabland features formed over a much longer timespan than commonly cited, that continental ice sheets of the early Pleistocene reached as far south as those of the late Pleistocene, and that similar physiography existed in eastern Washington and perhaps Montana to both generate and route Missoula-flood-like events. This study adds paleomagnetic polarity results from 213 new samples of silts and sands derived from nine new drill cores penetrating the Cold Creek cataclysmic flood bar to our previous database of 53 samples from four boreholes, resulting in a much more robust and detailed magnetostratigraphy. Rock magnetic studies on these sediments show pure magnetite to be the predominant remanence-carrying magnetic mineral, ruling out widespread remagnetization by secondary mineralization. The magnetostratigraphy at eastern Cold Creek bar is characterized by a normal polarity interval bracketed by reversed polarities. Equating the normal zone with the Jaramillo subchron (0.99-1.07 myr) affords the simplest correlation to the magnetic polarity timescale. Western Cold Creek bar was likely deposited during the Brunhes chron (0-0.78 myr) since it exhibits mainly normal polarities with only two thin reversed-polarity horizons that we interpret as magnetic excursions during the Brunhes.  相似文献   

High-resolution sedimentary record of lead in the coastal mud of the East China Sea in the past one hundred and fifty years     

Yunchao HAO Zhigang GUO Dejiang FAN 《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(B08):13-13

In the East China Sea （ECS）, there are some mud areas, including the south coastal mud area, the north coastal mud area, and the mud area to the southwest of Cheju Island. X-ray fluorescence （XRF） techniques and Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry （TIMS） were used to study the high-resolution sedimentary record of Pb concentrations and Pb stable isotopic compositions in the past one hundred and fifty years in the coastal mud of the ECS. Pb concentrations of a ^210Pb dating S5 core in the study area have increased rapidly since 1980, and reached the maximal value with 65.08 μg/g in 2000, corresponding to the fast economic development of China since the implementation of the ＂Reform and Open Policy＂ in 1978; ^206Pb/^207Pb ratios generally had stabilized at 1.195 from 1860 to 1966, and decreased gradually from 1966 to 2000, indicating that the anthropogenic source Pb contribution to the ECS has increased gradually since 1966, especially since 1980. Pb concentrations decreased distinctly from 2000 to 2003 and ^206Pb/^207Pb ratios increased from 2001 to 2003, corresponding closely to the ban of lead gasoline from 2000 in China. From 1950 to 2003, there occurred four distinct decrease events of ^206Pb/^207Pb, possibly responding to the Changjiang River （Yangtze River） catastrophic floods in 1998, 1991, 1981 and 1954; from 1860 to 1966, there were two decrease periods of ^206Pb/^207Pb, which may respond to the catastrophic floods of Changjiang River in 1931 and 1935, and 1870. As a result of the erosion and drowning by the catastrophic floods, the anthropogenic lead accumulated in soil and water environments over a long period of time was brought into the Changjiang River, then part of them was finally transported into the ECS, which leads to changes in Pb stable isotopic composition.  相似文献   

Towards Formulation of a Space-borne System for Early Warning of Floods: Can Cost-Effectiveness Outweigh Prediction Uncertainty?     

Faisal Hossain 《Natural Hazards》2006,37(3):263-276

The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics, which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements. This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement, GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction. A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer.  相似文献   

Impact of Flood Disasters on Taiwan in the Last Quarter Century     

Wei-Hsien Teng  Ming-Hsi Hsu  Chung-Hsing Wu  Albert S. Chen 《Natural Hazards》2006,37(1-2):191-207

The increasing natural disasters, especially floods during the last quarter century, are raising the economic losses in Taiwan. The most severe hazard in Taiwan is flooding induced by typhoons and storms in summer and autumn. By comparing the rivers around the world, the ones in Taiwan have the steepest slopes, the largest discharge per unit drainage area, and the shortest time of concentrations. Rapid urbanization without proper land uses managements usually worsen the flood problems. Consequently, flood hazards mitigation has become the most essential task for Taiwan to deal with. Although the government keeps improving flood defense structures, the flood damage grows continuously. In this article, possible flood mitigation strategies are identified for coping with complex environmental and social decisions with flood risk involved.  相似文献