共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 125 毫秒
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台风灾害是影响中国2.5亿人民生命财产和经济发展的重大问题。鉴于现行台风防灾减灾领域存在的问题,提出了"多维复合极值分布"理论及相应的"双层嵌套多目标概率模式",并应用于美国卡特列娜飓风巨灾预测和验证、上海设防标准、杭州湾特大超高水位,三峡设计洪水的概率预测及风险分析,显示了新理论的科学性、先进性和实用性。 相似文献
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为保证深水钻井作业过程中锚泊系统的安全性,降低事故发生率,提高事故应急处置能力,基于故障树、工作安全分析等风险分析方法,并结合锚泊系统自身特性,设计深水半潜式平台锚泊系统风险分析流程。依据钻井作业周期顺序,从抛锚、钻井作业及起锚阶段设计锚泊系统作业风险分析流程。搜集统计锚泊系统常见事故类型,设计走锚风险分析流程,建立走锚事故应急程序。结果表明:所设计的锚泊系统风险分析流程能够弥补现有锚泊系统风险分析的不足,为开展锚泊系统全生命周期内的风险分析提供理论指导,为其它锚泊系统风险相关研究提供参考。 相似文献
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河口地区是河流与海洋相互作用的集中交汇区,也是上游洪水、天文潮和风暴潮等各种动力要素的综合作用区,该区域的水动力研究尤为复杂。长江作为我国第一大河,上游洪水对河口地区的影响尤其明显,特别是天文高潮、风暴潮与洪峰效应相叠加时(俗称"三碰头"),往往会对沿岸造成严重的海洋灾害。以长江大通水文站为上边界建立了一个适合于长江口地区的精细化天文潮、风暴潮和洪水耦合模型,通过对近年来影响长江口的典型台风风暴潮过程的模拟发现,耦合洪水后模型计算结果与实测更为吻合。通过理想数值实验,充分考虑天文潮、风暴潮和洪水的相互作用,定量分析了不同径流量对长江口不同区域的影响,并给出了在不同上游洪水流量和不同台风强度组合情景下,洪水对长江口地区水位的影响以及长江口地区可能出现的高水位。 相似文献
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使用美国北卡罗来纳州的 FRF 1985—2016 年的极值波高及其持续时间数据，采用最优的 Gumbel-Hougaard copula函数和 Kendall 分布函数构建极值波高和相应历时不同组合的联合概率分布模式，分析各个组合的遭遇概率、“或”重现期、“且”重现期和 Kendall 重现期，以出现最大可能概率的方法推算各组合联合设计值。结果表明：Kendall 重现期所对应的累积频率更准确地代表了特定设计频率下的风险率；重现期分别为 5 年、10 年、20 年、50 年、100 年、200 年推算的 Kendall重现期设计值介于“或”重现期和“且”重现期设计值之间，小于相应的边缘分布设计值；基于 Kendall 重现期的极值波高及其持续时间不同重现期组合推算的结果可为海洋工程构筑物设计与风险管理提供新的选择与参考。 相似文献
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海洋平台的结构设计中主要考虑海洋环境和工作荷载作用,但近年来事故荷载的影响日益引起设计者关注。在此背景下,以固定式导管架平台结构为目标,综述当前针对事故荷载的风险设计方法的应用现状。首先论述在事故极限状态设计中应用风险分析的必要性;随后综述通用规范,如NORSOK、DNV、API等规范系列中对风险分析方法的使用现状,包括风险决策的不同层次、安全标准的各类形式,重在分析各类规范相关规定的异同,探讨各类方法的适用性;最后结合我国现状,论述若针对事故荷载编制基于风险方法的设计规范,目前尚存的问题,以及解决途径。 相似文献
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闽江感潮河段潮汐-洪水相互作用数值模拟 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文分析了闽江感潮河段洪水、潮汐特征,利用高精度GIS数据建立了基于非结构三角网的高分辨率洪-潮耦合模型,在闽江口重点区域的网格分辨率达到50~100m。选取竹岐断面作为径流边界并基于"2006.6.6"洪水过程设计了3组数值实验,模拟结果表明:相比于只考虑洪水或者潮汐,在耦合洪水和潮汐后,各代表站的模拟值与实测值更为吻合;在30年一遇洪水的作用下,闽江感潮河段各断面的原有潮汐特征都不同程度地被洪水信号所影响,其中,文山里和解放大桥站表现出明显的洪水特征,而峡南、白岩潭和琯头站则表现出洪、潮混合特征;从峡南到琯头对应河段在高潮时段流速减小而低潮时段则流速增大,说明该河段存在很明显的洪-潮相互作用。 相似文献
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随着全球气候变化加剧,强天气过程以及由此引发的洪水危害愈来愈严重。理解现代洪水沉积特征,不仅可以为减轻洪水灾害提供理论指导,而且也为识别古洪水沉积提供参照依据。2018年8月中旬,山东弥河流域受双台风影响发生洪涝灾害,对当地社会发展、人民生活造成严重影响。在对洪水淹没区考察基础上,于下游高河漫滩区、洪水沉积物保存完好的地点获取21.5 cm长岩芯MH1（含现代土壤）,并进行了粒度、孢粉、磁化率、烧失量分析。结果显示：钻孔岩芯洪水层沉积物以黏土和细粉砂为主,平均砂含量仅为1.7%,反映洪水强度不大;洪水沉积层粒度可识别出7.9和30.0μm两个敏感组分,根据其含量变化特征,可将此次洪水过程划分为洪水初期、第一次洪峰、高水位期、第二次洪峰、退水期5个阶段;洪水沉积层烧失量显著高于土壤层,而磁化率值整体低于下伏土壤层;洪水层与土壤层孢粉特征无明显差异,表明两者孢粉组合均能反映小流域植被状况,但洪水堆积层孢粉丰度（7 313.96粒/g）远高于下伏土壤层（1 562.65粒/g）。实验结果揭示洪水沉积环境有利于孢粉富集,磁化率值可能反映土壤发育过程中磁性矿物的产生与积累（成壤强度）,因此可作为... 相似文献
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The cost of Cofferdams as a function of design height is described by a basic lot size model. The cost components include construction and flooding risk cost, the former increases while the latter decreases with design height. Using an exponential function for the expected number of floods, together with Poisson assumptions, an expression is derived for the probability of no flooding. From this expression a reliability chart is constructed that can be used to estimate the flooding risk for a given design height and period. By minimizing the cost objective function, a design chart is also presented giving optimum design height in terms of parameters such as: estimated daily flooding cost, construction cost per unit height, average flood duration, mean and variance of the hydrological data. Sensitivity of the solution to errors in estimating model parameters is discussed. 相似文献
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System Analysis of Disaster Prevention Design Criteria for Coastal and Estuarine Cities 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
—In China,estuarine and coastal cities are mostly regional economic development centers.Thedisasters by combined effect of upper reach flood,storm surge and typhoon waves are primary obstaclesto the economic development of such cities.Thus the risk analysis and system analysis of flood-stormsurge-wave disaster,economic loss and flood-storm surge control measures play a very important role inthe sustainable development of coastal cities.There are three types of coastal cities for consideration.Thefirst type of city is like Tianjin.The most significant damage is from the upper reach flood.The effect ofstorm surge is negligible,because in the estuary of the Haihe River,tidal locks are built.The Grey MarkovModel(GMM)is used to forecast the flood peak level.GMM combines the Grey system and the Markovtheory into a high-precision model.The predicted flood peak levels are close to the measured data.A syn-thetic model is established for economic assessment,risk analysis and flood-control benefit estimation.Asa n 相似文献
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明代洛河流域洪涝灾害序列分形结构研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过对历史文献资料的整理和统计分析,对明代1368—1644年的277年间洛河流域的洪涝灾害进行了研究。研究得出,洛河流域在这一时段内共发生了56次洪涝灾害,平均约4.95年出现1次;其中特大涝灾3次,大涝灾12次,中度涝灾16次,轻度涝灾25次。洛河流域明代洪涝灾害可分为4个大的阶段,其中1368—1429年和1490—1539年两个阶段是洪涝灾害少发阶段,1430—1489年和1540—1644年两个阶段是洪涝灾害多发阶段。洪涝灾害的自相似特征揭示了灾害的分形性质。研究发现,明代洛河流域的各级洪涝灾害的分堆值都低于0.2,且无标度区相同,这表明了此时段洪涝灾害的长周期分量较强,且存在灾害的集中性。 相似文献
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LIU Defu * SHI Hongda PANG Liang Disaster Prevention Research Institute Ocean University of China Qingdao China College of Engineering Ocean University of China Qingdao China 《海洋学报(英文版)》2006,(4)
1Introduction IntheendofAugust2005,HurricaneKatrina assaultedAtlanticcoastandcoastofGulfofMexico coastswithamaximumwindspeedof175m/h,a bout1200peoplewerekilledinthecatastrophic storm,NewOrleanswasseriouslydamagedbythe turbulenthurricanewindandtheassociate… 相似文献
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The accurate prediction of the typhoon （hurricane） induced extreme sea environments is very important for the coastal structure design in areas influenced by typhoon （hurricane）. In 2005 Hurricane Katrina brought a severe catastrophe in New Orleans by combined effects of hurricane induced extreme sea environments and upper flood of the Mississippi River. Like the New Orleans City, Shanghai is located at the estuarine area of the Changjiang River and the combined effect of typhoon induced extreme sea en- vironments, flood peak runoff from the Changjiang River coupled with the spring tide is the dominate factor for disaster prevention design criteria. The Poisson-nested logistic trivariate compound extreme value distribution （PNLTCEYD） is a new type of joint probability model which is proposed by compounding a discrete distribution （typhoon occurring frequency） into a continuous multivariate joint distribution （ typhoon induced extreme events）. The new model gives more reasonable predicted results for New Orleans and Shanghai disaster prevention design criteria. 相似文献
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R. A. Hoare 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(3-4):339-349
This paper gives the data and methods used to calculate the nitrogen and phosphorus loads of the Ngongotaha Stream, near Rotorua, New Zealand. The variations in concentration with time and with flow rate are given in some detail, as examples of what may happen in other streams of the central volcanic plateau, and a novel way to define a flow‐concentration curve is described. Nitrate, ammonia, dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), total phosphorus (TP), and total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) concentrations were measured, and mean concentrations in 1976 base flow were found to be 527, 25, 32, 48, and 162 mg m‐3 respectively. Nitrate concentrations showed seasonal variations, and although changes occurred during floods, they were not correlated with flow rate. DRP concentrations showed little variation, except that they dropped at the peak of the largest floods. TP was strongly correlated with flow rate during floods, and TP loads could best be calculated by allowing for a curvilinear relationship between concentration and flow rate. The logarithms of the TP load carried by a flood and the peak flow rate of the flood were highly correlated (R = 0.984). The annual loads of nitrate, ammonia, DRP, TP, and TKN were estimated to be 34, 1.3, 2.9, 6.0, and 26 tonnes in 1976. 相似文献
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With the development of ocean engineering, it is one of the most important factors which determine the structural safety, cost and suitable forms of engineerings to select the ocean environmental design criteria. Owing to the complexity , variation and randomness of ocean environmental conditions, the commonly used methods for determining design criteria cannot consider the joint occurring probabilities of several environmental factors ,therefore, lead to overestimate design criteria of them and result in an unnecessary overspend invest in engineering. On the basis of the measured and hindcasting data and the multi-demension joint probability theory, this paper presented the study of the joint loads of wind , wave and current on the offshore structures and its responsible joint probability level with the application of random simulation techniques, and presented the joint design criteria of environmental loads for the realistic design of engineerings. 相似文献
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When only a few years of sea level observations are available to the coastal engineer concerned with the design and maintenance of coastal defences at a location, a method other than that of annual maxima analysis must be used for the estimation of the frequency of occurrence of exceptional high sea levels. The most attractive and suitable method is that of joint surge-tide probability analysis. Negligible surge-tide interaction at the location enables the simplest kinds of joint probability methods to be applied and investigated, but, if the tide and surge components cannot be regarded as independent, it does entail computations of increasing complexity and length whilst of diminishing accuracy. It is shown how a detailed tide and interaction analysis for two major ports in close proximity can reveal substantial differences in interaction behaviour and hence the applicability of joint probability methods. 相似文献