Estimation for partially observed Markov processes     

M. E. Thompson  T. N. Kaseke 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1995,9(1):33-47

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.  相似文献   

COOL AND FRESHWATER SKIN OF THE OCEAN DURING RAINFALL   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Peter Schlössel  Alexander V. Soloviev  William J. Emery 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1997,82(3):439-474

Rainfall over the sea modifies the molecular boundary layers of the upper ocean through a variety of different effects. These cover the freshwater flux stabilizing the near-surface layer, additional heat flux established due to rain versus surface temperature differences, modification of physical parameters by temperature and salinity changes, enhancement of the surface roughness, damping of short gravity waves, surface mixing by rain, and transfer of additional momentum from air to sea. They are separately described and included in our surface renewal model to investigate the rain's influence on the cool skin of the ocean and the creation of a haline molecular diffusion layer. Simulations with the upgraded model show that the most important effect on the conductive layer is that of reduced renewal periods followed by additional surface cooling due to rain on the order of 0.1 K. At rain rates below 50 mm h-1 rainfall is not able to completely destroy the mean temperature difference across the cool skin. A freshwater skin is created that exhibits a salinity difference exceeding 4 under strong rainfall. Comparisons with field data of the cool skin taken during the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment confirm the upgraded renewal model. Surface salinity measurements taken during the same field campaign are consistent with the calculated salinity differences across the freshwater skin. The enhancement of surface roughness by natural rain is less pronounced than described in earlier laboratory studies of rain with large drop sizes only.  相似文献   

Revisit of event-based rainfall characteristics at Shapotou area in northern China     

XinPing Wang  YaFeng Zhang  Rui Hu  YanXia Pan  HaoJie Xu  Wei Shi  YanXia Jin  Hiroshi Yasuda 《寒旱区科学》2016,8(6):477-484

Distribution of rainfall event sizes and interval lengths between events are important characteristics of arid and semi-arid climates. Understanding their importance will contribute to our ability to understand ecosystem dynamics in these regions. Rainfall event timing and magnitude are important drivers of ecosystem processes and are instrumental in creating landscape heterogeneity in arid and semi-arid regions. Rainfall event characteristics were analyzed using an automatic tipping-bucket rain-gauge record across the entire summer monsoon season from 2008 to 2015 at the arid desert area of Shapotou in the Tengger Desert, China. Changing the minimum inter-event time (MIT) from 30 min to 24 h alters the number of rainfall events from 64 to 25 for the event depth larger than 0.1 mm. The mean rainfall intensity declined from 0.95 mm/h to 0.53 mm/h, and the geometric mean event duration rose from 0.55 h to 4.4 h. The number of rainfall events, mean rainfall intensity, and geometric mean event duration differed under different criteria of individual rainfall depths, except that for an individual rainfall depth of 0.5, 1.0, and 5.0 mm. The aforementioned features differed only at the lowest range of the mean rainfall intensity and depth for MIT=3 and 6 h. These findings suggest that identification of event-based rainfall in this specific arid region can be better achieved by setting the MIT at six hours. The wide variation in rainfall event properties indicate the need for paying more attention to the proper selection and reporting of event criteria in studies that adopt event-based data analysis. This is especially true in quantifying effective rainfall for soil water replenishment in terms of rainfall depth and intensity with infrequent rainfall events.  相似文献   

渗透性与降雨强度对堆积层滑坡稳定性的影响   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

覃伟 《地质与勘探》2016,52(4):743-750

本文基于非饱和渗流理论及非饱和土的Fredlund双应力变量强度理论,对一沿岩土接触面滑动的堆积层滑坡模型,分别进行了8种条件下的降雨入渗数值模拟试验,研究了不同土体渗透性及降雨强度对滑坡稳定性的影响。结果表明:(1)堆积层滑坡的稳定性与土体的渗透性有密切关系,在降雨后的短期内,土体渗透性越好,滑面孔隙水压力升高越明显,滑坡的稳定性降低程度越大;(2)降雨期间,埋深较浅的滑面,入渗雨水能够较快到达,对滑坡稳定性的影响较大;(3)在相同的降雨时间内,降雨强度越大,滑坡稳定性降低速率越快;(4)降雨强度影响着滑坡发生的滞后性,在降雨总量一定的条件下,若降雨强度较大,雨停后,滑坡稳定性继续下降的程度较大;(5)降雨总量控制着滑坡的最终稳定性。  相似文献   

华北汛期降水分离时间尺度降尺度预测模型的改进   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

阮成卿  李建平 《大气科学》2016,40(1):215-226

本文采用偏相关预报因子挑选法和条件降尺度法,对已有的华北汛期(7~8月)降水时间尺度分离(TSD)降尺度模型进行了改进.利用偏相关法,找到一个新的影响华北汛期降水年际分量的前期预报因子,即6月北大西洋—欧亚遥相关(AEAT).该因子将扰动信号储存于北大西洋三极子结构,并在7~8月释放出来影响下游贝加尔湖低压系统的发展,从而影响华北汛期降水.利用6月Ni?o3指数和AEAT指数,本文建立了条件TSD统计降尺度模型,即按照预报因子的强度进行逐年分类,对于每个分类设计相应的预报模型,从而避免信息较弱因子的干扰.条件TSD降尺度方法显著改善了华北汛期降水的预测技巧,在独立检验阶段,预报降水与观测降水的相关系数由原模型的0.61提高到0.77,符号一致率从70%提高到87%.  相似文献   

甘肃中部降水性层状云微物理结构特征个例分析     

庞朝云  黄山  张丰伟 《气象科技》2016,44(5):805-810

利用机载PMS粒子探测系统对2006年8月27日甘肃省中部一次降水性天气过程进行空中观测,对云中微物理特征进行了分析。研究发现云层中小粒子对含水量的贡献较大,云层主要以平均直径小于20μm的小云滴为主。在低层云滴浓度和含水量大于上层,而平均直径小于上层,符合"播撒-供给"降水机理,云上部主要增长方式有凝华增长、淞附增长,在云下部主要增长机制是碰并增长。  相似文献   

浅层滑坡诱发沟谷泥石流的地形和降雨条件   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

余斌  王涛  朱渊 《水科学进展》2016,27(4):542-550

2011年贵州省望谟县打易镇的大范围浅层滑坡诱发的沟谷泥石流提供了研究这类泥石流地形和降雨条件的机会。在地质条件一致和小区域内的降雨条件基本一致的情况下,地形条件就是这些泥石流暴发与否的唯一决定因素。对比一些重要的地形因素与泥石流暴发的关系,得出了由流域面积、沟床纵比降和25°~45°山坡坡度面积比组成的泥石流综合地形因子T。在地形因子T的基础上,研究获得了由前期降雨量、1 h降雨强度、年平均降雨量等组成的降雨因子R。由地形因子T和降雨因子R获得的临界条件P可以判断该区域的泥石流暴发。由于研究工作部分基于泥石流的形成机理,研究成果还可用于其他区域的泥石流形成预测,为泥石流的预测预报提供了一个较好的方法。  相似文献   

基于推理公式的山洪预警雨量计算方法研究          下载免费PDF全文

李克先 《水文》2016,36(1):84-87

基于水科院推理公式,从山洪雨量预警需求出发,解除原公式在部分汇流中对流域面积分配曲线的矩形概化,经反演得出各典型时段临界雨量计算式;同时采用等流时方法,有效解决了计算式中最大部分汇流面积的定量问题。研究提出的预警雨量计算方法,物理概念清晰,易于理解和掌握,计算便捷,且无需水文资料,可作为现行山洪预警雨量分析计算的一种新方法。  相似文献   

Evaluation of WRF-based convection-permitting multi-physics ensemble forecasts over China for an extreme rainfall event on 21 July 2012 in Beijing     

Kefeng Zhu  Ming Xue 《大气科学进展》2016,33(11):1240-1258

On 21 July 2012, an extreme rainfall event that recorded a maximum rainfall amount over 24 hours of 460 mm, occurred in Beijing, China. Most operational models failed to predict such an extreme amount. In this study, a convective-permitting ensemble forecast system (CEFS), at 4-km grid spacing, covering the entire mainland of China, is applied to this extreme rainfall case. CEFS consists of 22 members and uses multiple physics parameterizations. For the event, the predicted maximum is 415 mm d^-1 in the probability-matched ensemble mean. The predicted high-probability heavy rain region is located in southwest Beijing, as was observed. Ensemble-based verification scores are then investigated. For a small verification domain covering Beijing and its surrounding areas, the precipitation rank histogram of CEFS is much flatter than that of a reference global ensemble. CEFS has a lower (higher) Brier score and a higher resolution than the global ensemble for precipitation, indicating more reliable probabilistic forecasting by CEFS. Additionally, forecasts of different ensemble members are compared and discussed. Most of the extreme rainfall comes from convection in the warm sector east of an approaching cold front. A few members of CEFS successfully reproduce such precipitation, and orographic lift of highly moist low-level flows with a significantly southeasterly component is suggested to have played important roles in producing the initial convection. Comparisons between good and bad forecast members indicate a strong sensitivity of the extreme rainfall to the mesoscale environmental conditions, and, to less of an extent, the model physics.  相似文献   

Radiative effects on torrential rainfall during the landfall of Typhoon Fitow (2013)     

Lingyun Lou  Xiaofan Li 《大气科学进展》2016,33(1):101-109

Cloud microphysical and rainfall responses to radiative processes are examined through analysis of cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments of Typhoon Fitow(2013) during landfall.The budget analysis shows that the increase in the mean rainfall caused by the exclusion of radiative effects of water clouds corresponds to the decrease in accretion of raindrops by cloud ice in the presence of radiative effects of ice clouds,but the rainfall is insensitive to radiative effects of water clouds in the absence of radiative effects of ice clouds.The increases in the mean rainfall resulting from the removal of radiative effects of ice clouds correspond to the enhanced net condensation.The increases(decreases) in maximum rainfall caused by the exclusion of radiative effects of water clouds in the presence(absence) of radiative effects of ice clouds,or the removal of radiative effects of ice clouds in the presence(absence) of radiative effects of water clouds,correspond mainly to the enhancements(reductions) in net condensation.The mean rain rate is a product of rain intensity and fractional rainfall coverage.The radiation-induced difference in the mean rain rate is related to the difference in rain intensity.The radiation-induced difference in the maximum rain rate is associated with the difference in the fractional coverage of maximum rainfall.  相似文献