人工神经网络方法预报长江上游流域面雨量的探讨   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

陈仁芳  刘静 《气象科学》2004,24(4):483-487

利用1998～2000年3～11月长江上游六大流域逐日降水实况和MAPS、T106(T213)、欧洲中心等数值产品资料，采用人工神经网络方法，建立了六大流域强降水面雨量等级预报模型。并于2002年6～9月进行了业务试验。  相似文献   

舟山港台风风暴潮的分析及预报          下载免费PDF全文

项素清 《气象》2004,30(3):35-38

利用 1 956～ 2 0 0 0年舟山市定海验潮站潮位观测资料 ,对历年影响舟山的台风风暴潮灾进行了全面的统计分析。将台风按路径分型 ,分析了不同路径台风风暴潮的特点 ,并用基于PRESS准则的逐步回归方法 ,建立了不同路径风暴潮的预报模型。  相似文献   

地震资料曲流河辫状河油气储层识别与预测     

涂齐催  刘怀山  张进  李金山 《西北地质》2004,37(4):79-84

曲流河、辫状河储层在我国的陆相盆地中广泛分布。由于曲流河相沉积砂体的单层薄、横向变化；辫状河相沉积的砂体迁移快、垂向加积等特点，增加了在勘探过程中对其分辨的难度。因此，对地震资料曲流河、辫状河油气储层的识别与预测，必须综合多种与其相关的地质资料，结合地震数据体中给出的信息来判断分析，以达到提高分辨率的目的。  相似文献   

第二松花江流域水电厂综合中长期水文预报的分析研究     

范垂仁谢武贤  关志成冷雪 范思毅 《水文》2004,24(2):31-34,54

基于对第二松花江流域上游小山、松山、两江水电站中长期水文预报研究成果，论述了综合中长期水文预报的研究思路和定性预报、定量预报的分析研究方法。该研究通过2002年实践检验，具有较高的预报精度。  相似文献   

通用洪水预报模型库设计建设研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

章四龙 《水文》2004,24(6):1-5,40

在介绍洪水预报模型库的基本概念和性质的基础上，分析了各类洪水预报模型的输入、输出数据类型，规定了各类数据文件格式，设计了洪水预报模型库的通用数据接口，并在中国洪水预报系统中实现了通用洪水预报模型库的建设。  相似文献   

Integrating Environmental Education Into Business Schools' Educational Plans in Finland     

Liisa Rohweder 《GeoJournal》2004,60(2):175-181

Environmental education in business school context has a significant effect on the way companies view environmental problems. Business schools train the future decision makers who can, with their own attitudes and practical actions, influence the contribution of business to the process of ecologically sustainable development. However, several studies show that no systematic thinking has been undertaken within business education as to what the educational prerequisites of the process of ecologically sustainable development are. In this article, I will firstly analyze by means of environmental education how business polytechnics in Finland have taken into consideration ecologically sustainable development. Secondly, I will raise the starting points for the development of the implementation of environmental education as part of the business schools▪ educational plans. Integrating environmental education into the vocational courses is identified as being one of the most effective ways of increasing the effectiveness of environmental education. Thirdly, the emphasis is on identification of barriers of integrating environmental education into the educational plans of business polytechnics. Theoretically, the article is attached to the objectives and learning concepts of environmental education and to educational planning theory in general. The empirical data are based on interviews I conducted 1999–2000 in all Finnish polytechnics offering business education. My article increases theoretical and practical understanding of how environmental education should be implemented in business education and how the current situation could be developed. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

电子地图商务网站应用探析     

杨晓超 《测绘信息与工程》2004,29(2):5-7

从WebGIS的产生背景和特点入手,阐述了WebGIS的应用现状,分析了WebGIS的重要应用之一--电子地图商务网站,剖析了其服务对象、系统需求、市场预测及策略等.  相似文献   

Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

Thorsten Wagener  Hoshin V. Gupta 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(6):378-387

Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification. We then continue to discuss the history (“The need for more POWER‘’), the current state (“Learning from other fields”) and the future (“Towards a general framework”) of model identification. The discussion closes with a list of desirable features for an identification framework under uncertainty and open research questions in need of answers before such a framework can be implemented.  相似文献   

Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands     

Saskia Van Vuren  Huib J. De. Vriend  Sonja Ouwerkerk  Matthijs Kok 《Natural Hazards》2005,36(1-2):81-102

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.  相似文献   

The Globalization of a Panethnopolis: Richmond District as the New Chinatown in San Francisco     

Laguerre  Michel S. 《GeoJournal》2005,64(1):41-49

This paper briefly reviews the sociological literature on the “New” Chinatown phenomenon stressing its structural location vis-à-vis the “Old” Chinatown and the homeland. It defines the New Chinatown as a panethnopolis, that is a global neighborhood with a majority population of Chinese immigrants and of other ethnic groups of mostly Asian descent. It analyzes more particularly the formation, development, and integration of San Francisco’s Richmond District’s New Chinatown into both the city where it is located and the network of transglobal sites to which it belongs. It provides an interpretation of the New Chinatown as a cultural enclave within the context of globalization theory.  相似文献