地下开采引发地面沉陷的未确知聚类预测方法   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

董陇军  李夕兵  宫凤强 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2008,19(2):95-100

对未确知聚类预测法进行优化,并将其应用于开采地面沉陷的预测研究。采用开采地面沉陷的实测数据按最大沉陷量进行分类,利用各分类影响因素的均值表示各分类中心,并确定各影响因素的未确知测度函数。由待测对象指标的综合未确知测度与各分类指标的未确知测度间的距离来确定待预测对象所属等级,给出了预测值的计算公式。经计算验证,该方法的正确率为75％。但在实际应用中,为了保证地表建筑设施等更加安全,允许预测级高判,则正确率可达100％。针对某铁矿一观测点进行预测,并与实测数据比较,结果表明,未确知聚类预测的结果是令人满意的,为开采地面沉陷的预测提供了一种新思路。  相似文献   

曲流点坝内部剩余油形成与分布规律物理模拟   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

闫百泉  马世忠  王龙  张全恒 《地学前缘》2008,15(1):65-70

建立了曲流点坝物理模型,模拟地下曲流点坝储层进行驱替实验。观察注入剂的运动规律,同时,在模型上布置了测量电极,以双电极法测量驱替过程中垂向电阻变化,反映注入剂波及高度的变化规律。分析了侧积泥岩夹层的建筑结构对注入剂在点坝砂体中的流动规律,以及对剩余油的形成分布的影响。通过实验研究证实,在曲流点坝内部,侧积泥岩夹层对注入剂具有强烈的遮挡作用,受其影响形成侧积体差异型剩余油、重力型剩余油以及压力异常型剩余油三种类型剩余油,主要分布在点坝的中上部。在实际生产中,利用水平井钻遇点坝上部进行开采是主要的手段。  相似文献   

GM（1，1）动态模型在吴江市地下水水位预测中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘洪  孙国曦  曹瑞祥 《地质灾害与环境保护》2008,19(3):47-51

以吴江市地下水水位预测为例,详细阐述了地下水水位时间序列的GM（1,1）动态模型的原理和建立过程,并根据模型的预测值和实测值,对模型的精度进行了检验,结果表明,模型的预测精度达到了99．27％,等级属于Ⅰ级,具有实际的应用价值,为地下水资源的科学管理提供了依据。  相似文献   

追忆李四光对防震减灾的贡献,以系统整体观指导防震应急   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

高庆华  杜建军  周显强 《地球学报》2008,29(3):385-391

笔者在追忆李四光地震科学和防震减灾指导思想的基础上,提出了以系统整体观指导防震应急的新论点,包括:运用地壳运动整体观研究地震规律;应用地震预测整体观进行地震预测;划分活动性构造体系,研究构造活动性;加强综合监测,研究各种地震前兆和相关的自然变异的发展趋势;圈定地震风险区,制定防震应急预案等.并结合中国的实际情况进行了论述.  相似文献   

数值模拟技术在海坨子油田开发调整研究中的应用     

翟雨阳  刘钦甫  张立德  唐勇  刘振兴 《上海国土资源》2008,(2):47-50

讨论分析数值模拟技术在海坨子油田开发调整研究中的思路和方法,采用美国Landmark公司VIP2003．4版本数值模拟软件包进行模拟研究,通过参数准备,静、动态拟合,模拟出海坨子油田海S9—11井组1—9砂组各小层剩余储量大小及不同阶段流体饱和度分布,结合可视化技术形象描述了海坨子油田剩余油变化规律及潜力区,在此基础上预测不同井网加密方式开发指标,并优选出最佳方案,为海坨子油田下步开发调整提供了重要依据,取得了较好的效果。  相似文献   

扬州市6－7月份天气预报服务业务化系统     

于庚康  刘方  钱余根  朱建国  秦铭荣 《气象》1994,(2)

从地（市）级气象台的业务工作出发,试图建立通过微机实现的对上接收信息、对外预报服务、对下预报指导的三位一体的天气预报服务业务化系统,以发挥地（市）级气象台在经济建设和防灾减灾中的作用,推动天气预报和服务的现代化建设,把基层气象工作推向一个新的台阶。  相似文献   

Using numerical modelling to evaluate tsunami hazard near the Kuril Island     

L. B. Chubarov  Yu. I. Shokin  K. V. Simonov 《Natural Hazards》1992,5(3):293-318

A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of critical tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. We call a wave critical, if its impact on the coast is most hazardous.Using the Middle Kuril Island as an example, we present the results of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deep-water Bussol and Diana Straits.Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits the assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the location of the focus zone and their geometry.The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island, formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area.  相似文献   

Quantitative determination of stress by inversion of speckle interferometer fringe patterns: experimental laboratory tests     

Douglas R. Schmitt  Mamadou S. Diallo  Frank Weichman 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(3):1425-1438

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Influence of Cyclic Wetting Drying on Collapse Behaviour of Compacted Residual Soil     

Sudhakar M. Rao  K. Revanasiddappa 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2006,24(3):725-734

The climatic zones where residual soils occur are often characterized by alternate wet and dry seasons. Laboratory studies of earlier workers have established that the alternate wetting and drying process affects the swell-shrink potentials, water content, void ratio and particle cementation of expansive soils. The influence of cyclic wetting and drying on the collapse behaviour of residual soils has not been examined. This paper examines the influence of alternate wetting and drying on the collapse behaviour of compacted residual soil specimens from Bangalore District. Results of such a study are useful in anticipating changes in collapse behaviour of compacted residual soil fills. Experimental results indicated that the cyclic wetting and drying process increased the degree of expansiveness of the residual soils and reduced their collapse tendency. Changes in the swell/collapse behaviour of compacted residual soil specimens from wetting drying effects are attributed to reduction in water content, void ratio and possible growth of cementation bonds.  相似文献   

Compressibility and shear strength of a residual soil     

Yahia E.-A. Mohamedzein  Mohammed H. Aboud 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2006,24(5):1385-1401

A detailed study was performed to investigate the compressibility and the shear strength of a residual soil in Omdurman, Sudan. The soil resulted from weathering of sandstone and mudstone. The soil is classified as sandy clayey silt (MH-CH) and is generally partially saturated. Consolidation tests were performed to study the compressibility of the soil and UU, CIU and insitu tests (CPT and SPT) were performed to study the shear strength characteristics of the soil. The characteristics of this residual soil can generally be predicted using correlations proposed in the literature for transported soils. The soil is of low to medium compressibility and exhibits slight apparent overconsolidation behavior. The soil dilates during shear and shows no long term effective cohesion. Problems associated with open cuts in this soil are attributed to loss of strength upon saturation.  相似文献