杠杆点评估及设计空间抗差     

黄幼才 《测绘学报》1993,22(4):289-293

本分析了杠杆点的几何含义和统计特征,从杠杆点的保差性,矩阵的摄动和参数估值可靠性的观点出发讨论了杠杆点的不利和有利的两个方面,提出了一个全面的设计空间抗差方案。  相似文献   

科技管理兼盈——纪念程裕淇院士诞辰110周年     

耿元生 《地质学报》2022,96(9):2955-2966

程裕淇院士是我国著名的变质岩石学家、矿床学家和前寒武纪地质学家。中国科学院学部委员(院士)，中国人民政治协商会议第四届、第五届全国委员会委员，第六届、第七届全国政协常务委员会委员。程裕淇先生开拓了我国变质岩研究领域，提出了矿床成矿系列理论，发展了我国前寒武纪地质学。他在管理上积极推进地质行业的对外开放，促进国际合作交流，为建立中央直属的野战军队伍建言献策；在政协多次提案，推动了我国矿产资源法的立法和实施。  相似文献   

Heavy metals in stream sediments from copper and gold mining areas in southern Brazil     

Maria Heloisa D. Pestana  Milton L.L. Formoso  Elba C. Teixeir 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》1997,58(2-3)

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Estimation for partially observed Markov processes     

M. E. Thompson  T. N. Kaseke 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1995,9(1):33-47

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.  相似文献   

Effects of heavy metals on the survival ofDiacypris compacta (Herbst) (Ostracoda) from the Coorong,South Australia     

Anna Brooks  Rehema M. White  David C. Paton 《International Journal of Salt Lake Research》1995,4(2):133-163

The hypermarine southern Coorong is threatened by proposals to drain relatively fresh surface water and groundwater from adjacent agricultural areas into the Coorong. These influent waters carry moderate loads of heavy metals. Acute toxicity of heavy metals toDiacypris compacta, an abundant ostracod in the Coorong, was measured in the laboratory at 18°C in a static system using Coorong water (pH 7.8 salinity 50 ppt). At 4 days (96 h) the mean values of LC₅₀ for copper, zinc, lead and, cadmium respectively were 0.8, 2.1, 3.1 and 4.3 mg L^–1, and at 8 days the respective mean LC₅₀ s were 0.4, 0.7, 2.2 and 1.1 mgL^–1. The effect of two or three metals on mortality was additive in some cases and synergistic in other cases, but generally less than additive. However, in all cases mortality was greater in the presence of two or three metals than in the presence of a single metal. According to ANZECC (1992) guidelines, maximum acceptable concentrations of heavy metals should be no higher than 0.01 x the lowest LC₅₀ value. Using the lowest LC₅₀ values forDiacypris compacta obtained at 8 days, maximum acceptable concentrations in the Coorong would be 4, 5, 9 and 22 gL^–1 for copper, zinc, cadmium and lead respectively, the values for zinc and copper failling below those recommended by ANZECC (1992) for marine waters. Reported concentrations of copper and zinc in surface water and groundwater in areas adjacent to the Coorong sometimes exceed these values, hence drainage of these waters into the Coorong represents a significant hazard to the Coorong biota.  相似文献   

太行山南段沟谷杂木林的群落学特征及起源初探   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘鸿雁 《地理科学》1995,15(2):188-195

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关于地震预报科学思路,方法论及难点的思考   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

陈立德 《地震研究》1992,15(2):186-192

中国地震预报的科学思路为整体观指导下的异常群体阶段性追踪预报模式。在方法论方面强调了宏观唯象方法的重要性,认为利用地震学、地球物理、地壳形变和地球化学等资料,采用统计识别的方法来寻找地震前兆、进行三要素预报是解决孕震过程这类复杂系统的较好方法。同时指出,地震成因、震源孕育物理力学过程、前兆成因机制、临震阶段起主宰作用的变量等是地震预报的难关所在。临震阶段潮汐力、气压、降水等这些平时视为干扰因素的变化,可能成为发震的触发调制因素。从而增加了前兆的复杂性,在排除干扰时应特别注意。  相似文献   

大理州2005年初夏干旱成因探析     

高安生  陈红玉  黄玮 《云南地理环境研究》2006,18(3):34-39,57

大理州2005年初夏出现了严重干旱气象事件.从500pHa高空环流特征、500pHa距平场特征、西太平洋副高特征量及北太平洋中低纬海温距平场、OLR距平场对这次干旱的成因进行了分析,分析结果表明：2005年初夏（4月1日～6月10日）降水异常偏少气温明显偏高是发生干旱的主要原因,高空大气环流异常、西太平洋副高持续偏强偏西、冷空气活动偏北是导致干旱的直接原因;孟加拉湾南部4月OLR场呈明显正距平,抑制低值系统的发展和东北移影响云南,是影响2005年大理初夏干旱重要原因;北太平洋中低纬海温特征与大理州初夏干旱有一定的遥相关性.  相似文献   

西安南郊丰水年秋季土壤水分研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

李艳花  赵景波 《中国沙漠》2006,26(1):113-116

 通过对西安南郊丰水年秋季土壤含水量的测定，研究了地下0~6 m之间土壤含水量的变化与土壤干层的恢复问题。研究结果表明，丰水年西安南郊人工林下2~3 m的土壤含水量在20％左右，远远高于正常年份的土壤含水量，而且大于表层和深层的土壤含水量。分析得出，土壤干层发育较弱的地区在降水丰富的年份可以得到一定程度的恢复；西安地区基本适合进行人工造林；通过人工措施，增强降水入渗和土壤含水量，对树木成活和长期的生长应当具有明显的作用。  相似文献   

近50 a渭河流域洪水成因分析及防治对策   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6  

张琼华  赵景波 《中国沙漠》2006,26(1):117-121

 通过对近50 a渭河流域洪水的年际变化、月际变化和潼关高程变化的综合分析得出，造成该流域洪水灾害的原因有降水量年内分配不均和年际变化大，滩面淤积加重，支流河口淤塞以及河势、流态的恶化等。针对这些原因，根据渭河流域洪水灾害的特点，提出了相应的防治措施，即降低下游高程，减少河道的淤积，增大河道泄洪能力；利用水库进行调水调沙，引进客水冲刷渭河下游；防洪工程要除险加固，提高防洪标准与抗洪能力；恢复林草植被，遏止水土流失，从源头上控制泥沙入河等。  相似文献