Radio‐tracking gravel particles in a large braided river in New Zealand: a field test of the stochastic theory of bed load transport proposed by Einstein     

H. M. Habersack 《水文研究》2001,15(3):377-391

Hans A. Einstein initiated a probabilistic approach to modelling sediment transport in rivers. His formulae were based on theory and were stimulated by laboratory investigations. The theory assumes that bed load movement occurs in individual steps of rolling, sliding or saltation and rest periods. So far very few attempts have been made to measure stochastic elements in nature. For the first time this paper presents results of radio‐tracing the travel path of individual particles in a large braided gravel bed river: the Waimakariri River of New Zealand. As proposed by Einstein, it was found that rest periods can be modelled by an exponential distribution, but particle step lengths are better represented by a gamma distribution. Einstein assumed an average travel distance of 100 grain‐diameters for any bed load particle between consecutive points of deposition, but larger values of 6·7 m or 150 grain‐diameters and 6·1 m or 120 grain‐diameters were measured for two test particle sizes. Together with other available large scale field data, a dependence of the mean step length on particle diameter relative to the D₅₀ of the bed surface was found. During small floods the time used for movement represents only 2·7% of the total time from erosion to deposition. The increase in percentage of time being used for transport means that it then has to be regarded in stochastic transport models. Tracing the flow path of bed load particles between erosion and deposition sites is a step towards explaining the interactions between sediment transport and river morphology. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Constraining non-gaussianities in WMAP1 and WMAP2     

Istvn Szapudi  Gang Chen 《New Astronomy Reviews》2006,50(11-12):896

We measure the 2-1 cumulant correlator power spectrum, a degenerate three-point statistic or integrated bispectrum, from the WMAP first and three year data releases (WMAP1 and WMAP2, respectively). We present a method of estimating these statistics using the pseudo-C_l-based SpICE estimator. We interpret the measurements in a maximum likelihood framework using theoretical predictions based on the simplest f_NL model. All calculations are repeated on Monte Carlo simulations to obtain covariance matrices of our measurements. Application of the theory of random matrices revealed that the experimental covariances are consistent with a random matrix approximation. Finally, our χ² analysis yields f_NL = 22 ± 52(1σ) from WMAP2.  相似文献   

Polynomial expansions in likelihoods for spatial data: A case study     

A. J. Watkins  P. Heatley 《Mathematical Geology》1996,28(8):987-999

This paper illustrates the computational benefits of polynomial representations for quantities in the likelihood function for the spatial linear model based on the power covariance scheme. These benefits include a comprehensive study of likelihoods and maximum likelihood estimators for data. For simplicity, we focus on a relatively simple covariance scheme and data observed at equal intervals along a transect; we briefly indicate how generalizations to more complicated covariance functions and higher dimensions will operate.  相似文献   

A conceptually based stochastic point process model for daily stream‐flow generation     

Z. X. Xu  G. A. Schultz  A. Schumann 《水文研究》2002,16(15):3003-3017

Based on the stochastic and phenomenological aspects of hydrological processes, a conceptually based stochastic point process (SPP) model for daily stream‐flow generation is proposed in this paper. In which, storms are defined by a stochastic point process with marked values. All the random variables defining the process are assumed to be mutually independent, which constitutes a compound Poisson point process. The direct surface runoff is regarded as occurring from storage in a cascade of surface linear reservoirs and is responsible for the short‐term variation of the daily stream flows. The baseflow component is considered as coming from subsurface/groundwater storage and is responsible for the long‐term persistence of the storm time‐series. This type of model is proposed as a more realistic model of daily stream flow than models based on pure stochastic processes. Studies on the instantaneous unit hydrograph and the mechanism of baseflow could thereby provide some parameters for this model. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Analysis of stochastic characteristics of the Benue River flow process     

李致家 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2008,26(2):142-151

Stochastic characteristics of the Benue River streamflow process are examined under conditions of data austerity. The streamflow process is investigated for trend, non-stationarity and seasonality for a time period of 26 years. Results of trend analyses with Mann-Kendall test show that there is no trend in the annual mean discharges. Monthly flow series examined with seasonal Kendall test indicate the presence of positive change in the trend for some months, especially the months of August, January, and February. For the stationarity test, daily and monthly flow series appear to be stationary whereas at 1%, 5%, and 10% significant levels, the stationarity alternative hypothesis is rejected for the annual flow series. Though monthly flow appears to be stationary going by this test, because of high seasonality, it could be said to exhibit periodic stationarity based on the seasonality analysis. The following conclusions are drawn： （1） There is seasonality in both the mean and variance with unimodal distribution. （2） Days with high mean also have high variance. （3） Skewness coefficients for the months within the dry season period are greater than those of the wet season period, and seasonal autocorrelations for streamflow during dry season are generally larger than those of the wet season. Precisely, they are significantly different for most of the months. （4） The autocorrelation functions estimated ＂over time＂ are greater in the absolute value for data that have not been deseasonalised but were initially normalised by logarithmic transformation only, while autocorrelation functions for i = 1, 2 365 estimated ＂over realisations＂ have their coefficients significantly different from other coefficients.  相似文献   

A Linear Intensity Model to Investigate the Causal Relation Between Calabrian and North-Aegean Earthquake Sequences     

Giuseppe De  Natale  Fabio Musmeci†  Aldo Zollo 《Geophysical Journal International》1988,95(2):285-293

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Perturbations of the Kepler Problem in Global Coordinates: A Program     

Bruno Cordani  Giorgio Merlini 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2001,81(4):313-319

The present paper is a brief report of how, along the lines of a previous paper, the implementation of the program KEPLER¹, for the numerical integration of the perturbations of the Kepler problem, has been carried out.  相似文献   

The Influence of Reactive Torques on Comet Nucleus Rotation     

A. I. Neishtadt  D. J. Scheeres  V. V. Sidorenko  P. J. Stooke  A. A. Vasiliev 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2003,86(3):249-275

Reactive torques, due to anisotropic sublimation on a comet nucleus surface, produce slow variations of its rotation. In this paper the secular effects of this sublimation are studied. The general rotational equations of motion are averaged over unperturbed fast rotation around the mass center (Euler-Poinsot motion) and over the orbital comet motion. We discuss the parameters that define typical properties of the rotational evolution and discover different classifications of the rotational evolution. As an example we discuss some possible scenarios of rotational evolution for the nuclei of the comets Halley and Borrelly.  相似文献   

Stochastic geometry in petroleum geology     

K. S. Deffeyes  B. D. Ripley  G. S. Watson 《Mathematical Geology》1982,14(5):419-432

Many aspects of the generation, migration, trapping, and discovery of petroleum, as well as its primary and enhanced recovery, depend upon geometry. The scale of the relevant geometric features varies all the way from that of continental margins and basins down to the pores and fissures in reservoir rocks. Because the spatial complexity is so great for each of these processes, it is reasonable to describe them statistically. The primary purpose of this paper is to survey possible ways in which statistical or stochastic geometry enters and might be used in petroleum geology and engineering. While it offers some new theory, this paper does not directly suggest any specific new methods for the estimation of hydrocarbon resources or reserves. This deficiency is mainly due to the current lack of relevant data. When data are available the point of view explained herein will be fruitful. The survey ties together many topics in a novel way.  相似文献   

Probabilistic seismic response and reliability assessment of isolated bridges     

GiuseppeCarloMarano 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2005,4(1):95-106

Bridge seismic isolation strategy is based on the reduction of shear forces transmitted from the superstructure to the piers by two means: shifting natural period and earthquake input energy reduction by dissipation concentrated in protection devices. In this paper, a stochastic analysis of a simple isolated bridge model for different bridge and device parameters is conducted to assess the efficiency of this seismic protection strategy. To achieve this aim, a simple nonlinear softening constitutive law is adopted to model a wide range of isolation devices, characterized by only three essential mechanical parameters. As a consequence of the random nature of seismic motion, a probabilistic analysis is carried out and the time modulated Kanai-Tajimi stochastic process is adopted to represent the seismic action. The response covariance in the state space is obtained by solving the Lyapunov equation for a stochastic linearized system. After a sensitivity analysis, the failure probability referred to extreme displacement and the mean value of dissipated energy are assessed by using the introduced stochastic indices of seismic bridge protection efficiency. A parametric analysis for protective devices with different mechanical parameters is developed for a proper selection of parameters of isolation devices under different situations.  相似文献