Estimation of the effective precipitation recharge coefficient in an unconfined aquifer using stochastic analysis     

H. S. Gau  C. W. Liu 《水文研究》2000,14(4):811-830

Effectively managing groundwater relies heavily on estimating the amount of precipitation that may infiltrate the subsurface and supply groundwater. In this study, we present a novel estimation method based on a stochastic approach to evaluate the quantity of precipitation that may recharge groundwater. The precipitation recharge coefficient is also investigated based on an unconfined aquifer with an unbound, infinitely extended boundary condition. Moreover, a spectrum's relationship to the precipitation and groundwater level variation is also derived. The precipitation recharge coefficient can be obtained from the solution of the spectrum equation. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is performed in order to determine the key variable on the precipitation recharge coefficient. Analysis results indicate that the location of an observation well affects the estimated precipitation recharge coefficient. If the precipitation recharge area is large enough, the precipitation recharge coefficient becomes insensitive to the location of the observation well. The spectrum's relationship between the precipitation recharge and groundwater level variation is also applied when estimating the precipitation recharge coefficient upstream of the Cho‐Shui River alluvial fan. According to those results, the precipitation recharge coefficient is 0·03 and the amount of groundwater recharge from precipitation is 35 million tons of water annually upstream of the Cho‐Shui River alluvial fan. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Thermal conductivity in a vadose zone: A novel spectral solution and application by the implication of significant coherence of thermal condition in the shallow soil water layer     

David Ching-Fang Shih 《水文研究》2024,38(2):e15071

In the context of the heterogeneity in the unsaturated or vadose zone, accurately representing the analytical mechanisms and in-situ water content within the soil layer poses a significant challenge. Particularly in shallow layers, thermal conditions exhibit rapid changes in response to evolving surface temperatures. This study proposes a hypothesis suggesting that the in situ heat mechanism may notably impact the soil water layer. The research introduces an innovative approach to theoretically uncover thermal conditions, including soil temperature, soil temperature gradients, and heat flux, within the shallow Quaternary gravel layer at various depths through spectral analysis of temporal observations. The study presents a stochastic inverse solution to estimate thermal conductivity by leveraging spectral analysis of soil heat flux and temperature gradients. The findings reveal that thermal conditions exhibit the most prominent periodic fluctuations during the diurnal process over a 24-hour cycle. The soil temperature gradients and heat flux measurements at depths of 0.1, 0.3, 0.6, and 1.2 m demonstrate their ability to capture changes in soil temperature and air temperature to a certain extent within the frequency domain. Furthermore, the analysis highlights the intrinsic uncertainty and sensitivity of estimating thermal conductivity in heterogeneous soil environments. The wide variability observed in thermal conductivity values, coupled with their dependence on soil type and environmental conditions, underscores the need for careful consideration of these factors in future studies and modeling efforts. Applying the derived inverse spectral solution allows for determining thermal conductivity throughout the soil-water system across depths ranging from 0.1 to 1.2 m. As a result, this research demonstrates the feasibility and practicality of assessing the thermal conductivity of the soil layer in conjunction with heat flux and temperature gradients through spectral analysis.  相似文献   

VRS动态随机模型建模方法的综合比较     

徐锐  黄丁发  廖华  陈维锋 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2010,(3)

阐述了4种传统虚拟参考站(virtual reference station,VRS)随机模型建模方法及VENUS随机模型建模方法的作业原理,从验后单位权方差、模糊度精度因子ADOP、F-ratio、滤波残差等多个角度综合分析了各方法作业水平的有效性及优劣程度。研究表明,传统的标准随机模型建模方法、信噪比建模方法及高度角建模方法在VRS中的应用有效性最弱,传统的自适应随机模型方法和VENUS建模方法在不同层面体现出各自的优势,有互相借鉴的科研价值。  相似文献   

RESPONSE ANALYSIS FOR FUZZY STOCHASTIC DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS WITH MULTIPLE DEGREES OF FREEDOM     

ZHANG YUE  WANG GUANGYUAN  SU FEN  SONG YUHAI 《地震工程与结构动力学》1997,26(2):151-166

Most real-life structural/mechanical systems have complex geometrical and material properties and operate under complex fuzzy environmental conditions. These systems are certainly subjected to fuzzy random excitations induced by the environment. For an analytical treatment of such a system subjected to fuzzy random excitations, it becomes necessary to establish the general theory of dynamic response of a system to fuzzy random excitations. In this paper, we extend the work published in Reference [1], and discuss the case of Multi-Degree-of-Freedom (MDF) fuzzy stochastic dynamical systems. The theory of the response, fuzzy mean response and fuzzy covariance response of multi-degree-of-freedom system to fuzzy random excitations in the time domain and frequency domain is put forward. Two cases to determine the fuzzy response statistics of the fuzzy stochastic dynamical system with multiple degrees of freedom are discussed. Two examples are considered in order to demonstrate the rationality and validity of the theory. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于Ruger近似式预测裂缝型储层的可行性研究     

吴姗姗  高刚  桂志先  王鹏  李成毅 《煤田地质与勘探》2020,48(1):189-196

叠前纵波方位各向异性检测裂缝是目前应用最为广泛的方法,该方法主要是利用AVAZ地震资料椭圆拟合的长轴与短轴信息来评价裂缝,该方法在具体应用时,认为裂缝型储层AVAZ响应特征的变化仅由各向异性参数决定,而没有考虑非各向异性参数的影响,从而引起裂缝评价的多解性。为提高该技术的裂缝评价精度,从模型分析入手,将模型中各向异性参数及岩性参数设置为概率密度分布函数,然后采用Monte Carlo随机方法进行叠前AVAZ正演模拟。首先,对各向异性参数对椭圆拟合的影响进行简单分析,得出各向异性参数γ对椭圆扁率B/A与各向异性因子B影响最大、δ次之、ε最小。然后,进一步重点分析不同标准差的速度与密度模型的B/A与B响应特征,得出地层的速度与密度的变化在较小范围内时,该技术评价裂缝才具有一定的可行性,其中,地层纵波和横波速度的变化（尤其是纵波速度）对叠前AVAZ响应影响较大,地层密度几乎没有影响,故当横向岩性变化较大时,该方法在评价裂缝型储层时的结果具有一定的不确定性。   相似文献   

The influence of channel morphology on bedload path lengths: Insights from a survival process model     

Conor McDowell  Marwan A. Hassan 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(12):2982-2997

Tracer studies are a commonly used tool to develop and test Einstein-type stochastic bedload transport models. The movements of these tracers are controlled by many factors including grain characteristics, hydrologic forcing, and channel morphology. Although the influence of these sediment storage zones related to morphological features (e.g., bars, pools, riffles) have long been observed to “trap” bedload particles in transport, this influence has not been adequately quantified. In this paper we explore the influence of channel morphology on particle travel distances through the development of a Bayesian survival process model. This model simulates particle path length distributions using a location-specific “trapping probability” parameter (p_i ), which is estimated using the starting and ending locations of bedload tracers. We test this model using a field tracer study from Halfmoon Creek, Colorado. We find that (1) the model is able to adequately recreate the observed multi-modal path length distributions, (2) particles tend to accumulate in trapping zones, especially during large floods, and (3) particles entrained near a trapping zone will travel a shorter distance than one that is further away. Particle starting positions can affect path lengths by as much as a factor of two, which we confirm by modelling “starting-location-specific” path length probability distributions. This study highlights the importance of considering both tracer locations and channel topography in examinations of field tracer studies. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Markovian modeling of seismic damage accumulation          下载免费PDF全文

Iunio Iervolino  Massimiliano Giorgio  Eugenio Chioccarelli 《地震工程与结构动力学》2016,45(3):441-461

Analysis of civil structures at the scale of life‐cycle requires stochastic modeling of degradation. Phenomena causing structures to degrade are typically categorized as aging and point‐in‐time overloads. Earthquake effects are the members of the latter category this study deals with in the framework of performance‐based earthquake engineering (PBEE). The focus is structural seismic reliability, which requires modeling of the stochastic process describing damage progression, because of subsequent events, over time. The presented study explicitly addresses this issue via a Markov‐chain‐based approach, which is able to account for the change in seismic response of damaged structures (i.e. state‐dependent seismic fragility) as well as uncertainty in occurrence and intensity of earthquakes (i.e. seismic hazard). The state‐dependent vulnerability issue arises when the seismic hysteretic response is evolutionary and/or when the damage measure employed is such that the degradation increment probabilistically depends on the conditions of the structure at the time of the shock. The framework set up takes advantage also of the hypotheses of classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, allowing to separate the modeling of the process of occurrence of seismic shocks and the effect they produce on the structure. It is also discussed how the reliability assessment, which is in closed‐form, may be virtually extended to describe a generic age‐ and state‐dependent degradation process (e.g. including aging and/or when aftershock risk is of interest). Illustrative applications show the options to calibrate the model and its potential in the context of PBEE. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Nonstationary stochastic response of structural systems equipped with nonlinear viscous dampers under seismic excitation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Enrico Tubaldi  Ioannis A. Kougioumtzoglou 《地震工程与结构动力学》2015,44(1):121-138

Nonlinear viscous dampers are supplemental devices widely used for enhancing the performance of structural systems exposed to seismic hazard. A rigorous evaluation of the effect of these damping devices on the seismic performance of a structural system should be based on a probabilistic approach and take into account the evolutionary characteristics of the earthquake input and of the corresponding system response. In this paper, an approximate analytical technique is proposed for studying the nonstationary stochastic response characteristics of hysteretic single degree of freedom systems equipped with viscous dampers subjected to a fully nonstationary random process representing the seismic input. In this regard, a stochastic averaging/linearization technique is utilized to cast the original nonlinear stochastic differential equation of motion into a simple first‐order nonlinear ordinary differential equation for the nonstationary system response variance. In comparison with standard linearization schemes, the herein proposed technique has the significant advantage that it allows to handle realistic seismic excitations with time‐varying frequency content. Further, it allows deriving a formula for determining the nonlinear system response evolutionary power spectrum. By this way, ‘moving resonance’ effects, related to both the evolutionary seismic excitation and the nonlinear system behavior, can be observed and quantified. Several applications involving various system and input properties are included. Furthermore, various response parameters of interest for the seismic performance assessment are considered as well. Comparisons with pertinent Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the reliability of the proposed technique. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

裂隙岩体三维柔度张量的数值试验方法     

向前  何吉  陈胜宏  吴锦亮 《岩土力学》2015,36(12):3625-3632

在裂隙岩体二维柔度张量数值试验的基础上,建立了裂隙岩体三维柔度张量及其表征单元体积（REV）尺度研究的简化数值试验方法。首先根据岩体裂隙的统计参数及分布规律,运用蒙特卡罗方法在研究域内获得与实际岩体裂隙同分布的三维随机裂隙网络,提取位于不同方位的岩体试件,运用二维柔度张量的数值试验方法求出各个平面方向上的二维柔度张量,然后根据二维与三维柔度张量的拓扑关系,用数学方法求解裂隙岩体的三维柔度张量。对于含3组正交全贯通裂隙的岩体,通过数值试验获得的柔度张量与理论解相比,其主对角线上各参数的误差在5%以内,表明该数值试验方法较为可靠。最后将此方法运用到小湾水电站工程中,确定左岸坝区裂隙岩体的应力REV为11 m×11 m×11 m,并获得该区域裂隙岩体的三维柔度张量。  相似文献   

Structural modal parameter identification and damage diagnosis based on Hilbert-Huang transform   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Han Jianping  Zheng Peijuan  Wang Hongtao 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2014,13(1):101-111

Traditional modal parameter identifi cation methods have many disadvantages,especially when used for processing nonlinear and non-stationary signals.In addition,they are usually not able to accurately identify the damping ratio and damage.In this study,methods based on the Hilbert-Huang transform(HHT) are investigated for structural modal parameter identifi cation and damage diagnosis.First,mirror extension and prediction via a radial basis function(RBF) neural network are used to restrain the troublesome end-effect issue in empirical mode decomposition(EMD),which is a crucial part of HHT.Then,the approaches based on HHT combined with other techniques,such as the random decrement technique(RDT),natural excitation technique(NExT) and stochastic subspace identifi cation(SSI),are proposed to identify modal parameters of structures.Furthermore,a damage diagnosis method based on the HHT is also proposed.Time-varying instantaneous frequency and instantaneous energy are used to identify the damage evolution of the structure.The relative amplitude of the Hilbert marginal spectrum is used to identify the damage location of the structure.Finally,acceleration records at gauge points from shaking table testing of a 12-story reinforced concrete frame model are taken to validate the proposed approaches.The results show that the proposed approaches based on HHT for modal parameter identifi cation and damage diagnosis are reliable and practical.  相似文献