大气环流的季节突变与季风的建立Ⅰ.基本理论方法和气候场分析   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

曾庆存  张东凌  张铭  左瑞亭  何卷雄 《气候与环境研究》2005,10(3):285-302

将曾庆存等提出的大气环流的季节划分和计算季风的理论方法作了改进,使之更便于研究季风的建立过程.该理论方法将环流突变和季风建立时段,其"变差度"和与其前和其后场的"相似度"等由空间场的泛函随时间的变化(即数学名词上的"流"[flow])一起求出来.研究Ⅰ先分析气候平均场,Ⅱ分析各个别年份的情况及年际变化.研究Ⅰ的结果表明:(1)该方法可以客观定量地定出"突变"时段的关键日期;与季风建立过程联系,即是季风建立的"预兆日期",它比人们用天气-气候学方法(甚至用别的气象要素)定出的可以明显感觉到的或有明显实用价值的"季风来临日期"要早2至4天.(2)在北半球亚澳季风系统区域,夏季风的来临在许多关键地区伴有明显的环流突变,建立和推进者很快,但也有许多区域不表现为当地环流的突变,推进速度也慢.(3)北半球亚澳季风系统低空的热带季风分支,在6月中以前可明确区分为3个子系统,(a)西太平洋暖池和邻近低纬区域,4月中下旬建立;(b)热带东北印度洋(北界与孟加拉湾相邻,但不包括其在内)及索马里东边海洋,4月末至5月初建立;和(c)南海区域,5月上旬从南到5月下旬到北部.南海夏季风向北推进最快,于5月末候即可达北回归线附近,然后与暖池西北区域风场的突变一起,于6月中旬影响到东亚30°N区域;印度洋季风于6月初到达印度半岛东南端,然后逐渐推向印-巴次大陆.7月中以后,热带季风才连成一片,由非洲东岸直至长江下游和菲律宾附近.副热带季风分支于6月中旬可以感到其影响,于7、8月盛行于东亚和西太平洋区域,且结构和演变都比较复杂;6～7月间只表现为在(5～20°N,120～150°E)区域有强的环流突变(与副高增强并北移对应),7月中至8月底,则在上述区域和沿30°N的长江下游和日本以南的洋面上有3个强的环流突变中心(对应于副高又一次增强北移和西伸).这里暂不讨论温寒带季风分支.(4)季风具有鲜明的三度空间斜压结构,尤其是在低空季风"爆发"之前,平流层早已有强的环流突变,季节调整完成,然后突变向下延伸(虽然强度大减),跟着就有当地的低空季风"爆发"(建立).平流层和对流层环流的相互作用及其与季风建立的关系很值得进一步研究.  相似文献   

卫星钟差采样间隔对高频PPP-ZTD精度的影响     

李黎  李浩军  龙四春  沈军  张立亚 《大地测量与地球动力学》2015,35(1):77-80

高频对流层延迟（ZTD）的提取对于反映水汽含量的高时间分辨率瞬时变化及其在暴雨短临预报中的应用具有重要意义。基于精密单点定位技术（PPP）分析了不同采样间隔的卫星钟差对PPP-ZTD精度的影响。结果表明,卫星钟差的时间间隔小于30 s时,所获得的PPP-ZTD(RMS<4 mm)比5 min间隔的（RMS<6 mm）精度要高;而5 s与30 s采样间隔的卫星钟差所获得的ZTD精度相当。  相似文献   

Estimation of wave period statistics using numerical coastal wave model     

G. Muraleedharan  Mourani Sinha  A. D. Rao  N. Unnikrishnan Nair  P. G. Kurup 《Natural Hazards》2009,49(2):165-186

We used field and model wave data to investigate that zero crossing and average wave period distribution follow Gamma distribution. Since Gamma CDF is an infinite power series, further mathematical treatment is difficult. Hence its shape parameter is approximated to the nearest integer to arrive at Erlang distribution. An expression is derived from Erlang distribution to estimate various mean wave periods and significant wave period and validated by relative root mean square (RRMS) error criteria. It is shown by mathematical logic that the significant wave period distribution follows Erlang (or Gamma) distribution and is validated. The average of one-third and one-tenth highest wave periods (T _s ) estimated from Erlang distribution are in accordance with the values computed from recorded buoy and numerical coastal wave model wave period data. The predicted T _s values from coastal wave model wave period data underestimates the values from buoy wave period data.  相似文献   

Statistical Distributions of Hydraulic Conductivity from Reliability Analysis Data     

C. M. O. Nwaiwu 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2009,27(1):169-179

This paper describes a first-order reliability-based analysis to identify the best-fit probability distributions for hydraulic conductivity. The analysis involved the use of existing hydraulic conductivity model developed from laboratory data and applied to lateritic soils, considering variations in soil parameters. Plots of reliability indices versus coefficients of variation were first made for hydraulic conductivity as well as for initial degree of saturation, plasticity index and clay content, considering three compactive efforts and log-normally distributed hydraulic conductivity. The traditional two-parameter log-normal distribution was compared to four alternative distributions: normal, gamma, Gumbel (extreme value type I-EVT-I) and Weibull (extreme value type III-EVT-III). The analysis showed that the Weibull and normal are the best-fit probability distributions for the hydraulic conductivity based reliability data. Hydraulic conductivities predicted from reliability analysis were used to demonstrate the possibility of applying the results obtained in this research by practising engineers. Experimentally-determined hydraulic conductivities were shown to be in good agreement with predicted values.  相似文献   

A numerical study of tropospheric ozone in the springtime in East Asia   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

ZHANG Meigen  XU Yongfu  Itsushi UNO  Hajime AKIMOTO 《大气科学进展》2004,21(2):163-170

The Models-3 Community Multi-scale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ)coupled with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)is applied to East Asia to study the transport and photochemical transformation of tropospheric ozone in March 1998．The calculated mixing ratios of ozone and carbon monoxide are compared with ground 1evel observations at three remote sites in Japan and it is found that the model reproduces the observed features very well．Examination of several high episodes of ozone and carbon monoxide indicates that these elevated levels are found in association with continental outflow,demonstrating the critical role of the rapid transport of carbon monoxide and other ozone precursors from the continental boundary layer．In comparison with available ozonesonde data,it is found that the model-calculated ozone concentrations are generally in good agreement with the measurements,and the stratospheric contribution to surface ozone mixing ratios is quite limited．  相似文献   

胶州湾水体重金属Hg的质量浓度和分布     

杨东方  孙培艳  鞠莲  赵玉慧  曲延峰 《海岸工程》2013,(4):65-76

根据1982-04、06、07和10月胶州湾水域调查资料,探讨和研究胶州湾重金属Hg的水质、平面分布、垂直分布、季节变化以及来源.结果表明：Hg在胶州湾水体中的质量浓度范围为：0.006～0.049 μg/L,在胶州湾整个水域,没有受到Hg的污染.在胶州湾西南沿岸水域,地表径流直接输送Hg入海,其质量浓度都非常低;在胶州湾东部沿岸水域,河流输送Hg入海,其质量浓度相对较高.Hg的表、底层水平分布证实了Hg的水域迁移过程和水域迁移机制.Hg质量浓度的垂直分布展示了胶州湾表层水质受到陆地地表径流输送Hg的影响,而胶州湾底层水质受到累计沉降的效应.通过胶州湾Hg的时空分布,发现控制Hg的排放得到实施,输入胶州湾水域的Hg大为减少.  相似文献   

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刘严萍  张立辉  张飞涟 《大地测量与地球动力学》2013,33(3):59-63

????InSAR????У????SAR???????????????????????????????????μ??????????????--??????κ???????????????????????????????GPS????????ж????????????????????????????????????????????????????????GPS????????????????????????mm??????????InSAR????У???????  相似文献   

Benchmarking observational uncertainties for hydrology: rainfall,river discharge and water quality   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hilary McMillan  Tobias Krueger  Jim Freer 《水文研究》2012,26(26):4078-4111

This review and commentary sets out the need for authoritative and concise information on the expected error distributions and magnitudes in observational data. We discuss the necessary components of a benchmark of dominant data uncertainties and the recent developments in hydrology which increase the need for such guidance. We initiate the creation of a catalogue of accessible information on characteristics of data uncertainty for the key hydrological variables of rainfall, river discharge and water quality (suspended solids, phosphorus and nitrogen). This includes demonstration of how uncertainties can be quantified, summarizing current knowledge and the standard quantitative results available. In particular, synthesis of results from multiple studies allows conclusions to be drawn on factors which control the magnitude of data uncertainty and hence improves provision of prior guidance on those uncertainties. Rainfall uncertainties were found to be driven by spatial scale, whereas river discharge uncertainty was dominated by flow condition and gauging method. Water quality variables presented a more complex picture with many component errors. For all variables, it was easy to find examples where relative error magnitudes exceeded 40%. We consider how data uncertainties impact on the interpretation of catchment dynamics, model regionalization and model evaluation. In closing the review, we make recommendations for future research priorities in quantifying data uncertainty and highlight the need for an improved ‘culture of engagement’ with observational uncertainties. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于GIS的震害空间分布图集的设计与编制   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

毕雪梅  邓民宪  洪海春  章熙海  胡祺 《地震学刊》2011,(4):457-461

快速地生成震害分布预测图,对提高减灾救灾能力有着重要意义。本研究采用3S（地理信息系统—G IS、全球定位系统—GPS和遥感—RS）技术,设计了一套全方位、多角度、综合自然环境、社会经济和人文要素的震害空间分布图集。本文将G IS强大的空间分析和数据管理能力与GPS、RS和地震科学相结合,从设计思想、图集内容、表现形式等方面介绍了专题图集的设计与编制。经过多次地震应急演练,该图集在制图规范化和出图速度方面有了较大的改善,能为应急指挥和辅助决策提供有力的技术保障。  相似文献   

Statistical identification of seismicity phases     

A. Pievatolo  R. Rotondi 《Geophysical Journal International》2008,173(3):942-957

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