ENSEMBLE PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS OF TYPHOON TRACK BASED ON THE STOCHASTIC TOTAL TENDENCY PERTURBATION   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王晨稀 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2016,22(3):305-317

The GRAPES-TCM is used to make ensemble prediction experiments for typhoon track. Three kinds of ensemble schemes are designed for the experiments. A total of 109 experiments are made for the nine typhoons in 2011 and the integral time is 72 h. The experiment results are shown as follows. In the three ensemble schemes, on the whole, scheme 1 has the best track prediction. Its average absolute track error and overall deviations of typhoon moving speed and moving direction are all the smallest in the three schemes. For both scheme 1 and scheme 2, they are all smaller than those of their control predictions. Both of their ensemble predictions show superiority to their deterministic predictions. Overall, compared with the observations, the typhoon moving directions of the three schemes mainly skew to the right, and in the late integration they mainly tend to be relatively slow. In the three schemes, the track dispersion of scheme 1 is the largest and that of scheme 3 the smallest. In scheme 1 it is much larger than in schemes 2 and 3. The difference of dispersion between scheme 2 and scheme 3 is small. The track dispersions of the three schemes are all much smaller than their rational dispersions. Compared with the eight domestic and overseas operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, scheme 1 has better predictions than the other seven operational models except ECMWF NWP model. Scheme 1 has the value of operational application.  相似文献   

EFFECT OF DRY COLD AIR ACTIVITY ON THE OFFSHORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF SUPER TYPHOON SAOMAI (2006): A NUMERICAL SIMULATION RESEARCH     

于玉斌  赵大军  陈联寿 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2016,22(4):455-465

Employing the mesoscale WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) model, Super Typhoon Saomai (2006) is simulated. The variation of track and intensity and its offshore rapid intensification process are well demonstrated by the model, and the temperature and humidity patterns associated with the dry cold air activity and their impact on and mechanism of the offshore rapid intensification of Saomai are mainly studied in this paper. The results indicate that high-resolution water vapor imagery can visually reveal the development, evolution, interaction as well as the mutual complementation of the dry cold air activity accompanied with the development of Saomai. The offshore rapid intensification phenomenon of Saomai is closely related to the dry cold air which originates from the upper- and mid- troposphere. Besides, the dry cold air from the upper troposphere is stronger than that from the mid-troposphere. Saomai intensifies as the dry cold air from the northwest moves toward its circulation but weakens when the dry cold air from the southwest is drawn into the storm. Dry cold airflows and their cold advection effect caused by the downward motion across the isentropic surface are favorable to the development of Saomai. The dry cold air always moves along an isentropic surface from the upper troposphere to the mid-troposphere around the typhoon circulation and contributes to Saomai’s abrupt intensity change.  相似文献   

热带气旋闪电活动特征研究综述          下载免费PDF全文

张文娟  张义军  郑栋  吕伟涛  徐良韬 《山东气象》2021,41(3):1-10

针对热带气旋（tropical cyclone,TC）闪电已有研究,首先从闪电活动分布特征、眼壁闪电爆发对TC强度和路径的指示、外雨带闪电活动与雨带对流结构的关系三个方面进行了总结;其次从动力一微物理方面对TC闪电的形成原因和特征机理进行了梳理;最后提出当前研究中存在的两个关键问题,并对后续研究内容进行了展望。基于地基和空基相结合的综合闪电探测得到的闪电属性特征参量,有望建立一个明确的、具有代表性的闪电活动一TC强度变化关系。利用沿海地区架设的三维闪电定位系统结合地基双偏振霄达,针对登陆台风强对流过程开展的综合观测研究,将有助于推进闪电观测资料在台风中小尺度强对流监测、预警和资料同化中的应用。  相似文献   

不同台风降水强度下风廓线雷达适用性     

郭运  汤胜茗  王旭  汤杰  赵兵科  张帅 《热带气象学报》2021,37(2):268-276

以2019年8月在浙江舟山对1909号超强台风“利奇马”的移动观测试验为基础,利用同一地点释放的9次GPS探空气球,对比了风廓线雷达和多普勒激光测风雷达与GPS探空的吻合程度,并利用车载雨滴谱仪对风廓线雷达在不同台风降水强度下的适用性进行了研究。结果表明,在100~300 m高度范围内激光测风雷达观测风速比风廓线雷达更准确。由水平风速对比结果可知,风廓线雷达在3~4 km高度范围内偏差最小(3.59 m/s),相关性最高(0.86),而在1 km高度下偏差最大(6.39 m/s),相关性最低(0.54);在中雨及大雨条件下适用性最差,最大风速偏差约为18 m/s。由水平风向对比结果可知,风廓线雷达与GPS探空总体上吻合较好,相关系数均大于0.85,均方根偏差均小于11 °。另外,降水强度对风廓线雷达的风向观测影响较小,风向偏差随降水强度的变化总体趋于平稳,基本分布在-20 °~20 °之间。   相似文献   

青岛近海台风暴潮灾害分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

林滋新  李晓林 《海岸工程》1998,17(4):13-16

分析了青岛沿海地区的台风暴潮灾害状况,阐明了潮灾成因,明确指出风暴潮在沿海自然灾害中占有重要的地位。  相似文献   

东海台风出现次数以及在我省沿海登陆的分析与预测     

周洪祥  方同德 《海洋学研究》1998,16(1):10-17

根据３７年（１９５３～１９８９年）的有关气象资料分析表明,浙北地区当年３月温度,上年４～６月降水量,秋、冬季干湿度和年积温与当年东海热带气旋（指强度达到热带风暴以上的热带气旋以下统称台风）出现次数之间有着密切的相关性。在此基础上进一步分析了前期一些气象要素与登陆台风之间的关系,并由此分别建立预报东海台风出现多寡和台风是否登陆的判别式。从其拟合和试报结果来看,效果令人满意。  相似文献   

1998年我国天气气候特点   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

张清 《气象》1999,25(4):26-29

１９９８年我国天气气候有如下几个主要特点：南方部分地区出现冬春汛,夏季长江、嫩江和松花江流域发生严重洪涝,秋季降水偏少,部分地区出现秋旱;全国年平均气温普遍偏高;生成和登陆的台风异常偏少;风雹天气接近常年;青藏高原出现罕见雪灾。  相似文献   

环流非对称结构与台风移速关系的数值研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

余晖 《气象科学》1999,19(1):66-72

利用准地转正压模式,在无环境气流的情况下,对初始轴对称和非轴对称理想台风实施两组共13个数值试验,研究台风环流不同区域的非对称性与其移速的关系。结果表明：（1）台风环流某些区域的非对称性与其移速有稳定的强相关,如,大风半径外围50～100KM附近东—西向东北—西南向的非对称性;（2）大风半径的位角,使台风外围环流的非对称性与其移速相关增强,而最大风速和初始非对称方位用的变化对上述相关性几乎没有影响。  相似文献   

A baroclinic typhoon model with a moving multi-nested grid and variational adjustment initialization Ⅱ. Forecast experiments     

Wu Huiding  Yang Xuelian  Bai Shan  Li Guoqing 《海洋学报(英文版)》1999,18(4):477-493

INTRODUCTIONBeingoneofthemestdisastrousweathersystemsinfluencingthesoutheaStcoastofChinainsurnmerandautumn,typhoonsalsocausestrongstormsUrgeSandseawavesI'eSultinginsevereoceandisasters,whichthreaten~theasternChina'sagriculture,navigation,offshoreoila...  相似文献   

9711号台风对太湖水位影响分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

闻余华  秦伯强 《湖泊科学》1998,10(4):91-94

针对１９９７年８月出现的９７１１号台风,就其对太湖水位的影响作了分析,分析表明,这次台风对太湖东西两岸水位影响显著东岸以减水为主,水位降幅达０．６６－０．９３ｍ,西岸以增水为主,增幅达０．６７－０．７７ｍ,水位振幅达－０．６７－１．２２ｍ,同一时间内,东西两岸水位差达１．１７－１．４２ｍ。分析还表明,太湖风场变化与水位变化关系较为紧密,表现为：当风向相对一致时,背风岸望亭,胥口的水位随风速的增加而  相似文献