Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part I: Initial uncertainties     

Feifan Zhou  Munehiko Yamaguchi  Xiaohao Qin 《大气科学进展》2016,33(7):841-851

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfalling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions (“initials”, hereafter), which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.  相似文献   

北斗卫星导航系统双差动力法精密定轨及其精度分析     

刘伟平  郝金明  田英国  于合理  张康 《测绘学报》2016,45(2):131-139

针对GEO卫星切向轨道分量与双差模糊度强相关的问题,对经典双差动力法进行了改进,提出联合使用载波相位和相位平滑伪距实现北斗系统精密定轨,并从理论上分析了以上处理策略的可行性及对模糊度固定的影响,然后结合北斗系统精密定轨特点,推导给出了利用QIF方法实现北斗卫星双差模糊度固定的基本原理,实测数据分析表明:联合载波相位和相位平滑伪距,既可降低相关性,又可兼顾精度,定轨效果优于经典双差动力法;利用QIF方法能够取得一定的模糊度固定效果,但受观测条件限制,北斗卫星双差模糊度固定成功率整体不高,双差模糊度固定之后对轨道的改进作用有限。  相似文献   

Study on the Global Carbon Assimilation System Based on Multisource Remote Sensing Data     

Ju Weimin  Fang Hongliang  Tian Xiangjun  Jiang Fei  Zhan Wenfeng  Liu Yang  Wang Zhengxing  He Jianfeng  Wang Shaoqiang  Peng Shushi  Zhang Yongguang  Zhou Yanlian  Jia Binghao  Yang Dongxu  Fu Yu  Li Rong  Liu Jingxian  Wang Haikun  Li Guicai  Chen Zhuoqi 《地球科学进展》2016,31(11):1105-1110

The Paris agreement signed in April, 2016 aims to balance global anthropogenic carbon emissions and terrestrial carbon sinks by the middle of the 21^st century. To fulfill this goal, it is necessary to calculate carbon fluxes of different regions reliably. The global carbon assimilation system is an effective technique for achieving this goal. The Ministry of Science and Technology of China supports the project entitled as study on the global carbon assimilation system based on multisource remote sensing data through the national key research and development programs for global change and adaptation during the thirteen-five period. This project will develop synergic inversion techniques for retrieving key parameters of biological and atmospheric cycles and for assimilating multisource remote sensing and ground based data. Then, the high resolution global carbon assimilation system coupled with an ecological model will be constructed. This system is able to assimilate jointly multisource observation data and to optimize key model parameters, photosynthesis and respiration carbon fluxes of global terrestrial ecosystems, and anthropogenic carbon emission fluxes of key regions. This system will be used to study quantitatively the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon fluxes of global terrestrial ecosystems and anthropogenic carbon emission fluxes of key regions and to identify the mechanisms driving the global terrestrial carbon sinks and sources. The outputs of this study will be helpful for the fulfillment of the key research and development programs for global change and adaptation and provide valuable data and technical support for the decision-making in China.  相似文献   

Description of the vessel traffic within the north Pelagos Sanctuary: Inputs for Marine Spatial Planning and management implications within an existing international Marine Protected Area     

《Marine Policy》2016

  相似文献   

扬子陆块西缘安益南华纪火山岩的厘定及其地质意义     

刘兵  李静  邓仁宏  熊波  关奇  李小军  刘军平  陈光艳  胡绍斌  张虎  李维科  曾文涛 《地质通报》2018,37(11):1980-1990

扬子陆块西缘安益大湾山地区出露一套由变质玄武岩等组成的变质基性火山岩,前人将其归为中元古界,并作为寻找磁铁矿的主要对象。调查发现,安益大湾山变质基性火山岩与下伏浅变质岩系间发育一套稳定沉积的砾岩。应用LA-ICP-MS技术对其底砾岩之上最底部的变质玄武岩进行了锆石U-Pb年龄测定,获得了781.3±1.9Ma的岩浆锆石~(206)Pb/~(238)U年龄加权平均值和1008±14Ma、1142±15Ma、2714±10Ma的继承性岩浆锆石~(207)Pb/~(206)Pb年龄,指示该套变质基性火山岩形成于南华纪,并将其从浅变质岩系中解离出来,对比为澄江组。继承性锆石年龄数据指示,扬子地块西缘安益地区存在新太古界和中元古界物质记录。结合前人研究成果和近来获得的年龄数据,将滇中澄江组的时代界定于820～740Ma,并将南华系的底界界定于820Ma。大湾山中-大型磁铁矿产于扬子地块西缘澄江组的变质基性火山岩中,其主成矿期为南华纪,可能属于热液氧化物-铜-金矿床。  相似文献   

Landfill site selection based on reliability concepts using the DRASTIC method and AHP integrated with GIS – a case study of Bengaluru city,India     

L. G. Santhosh  G. L. Sivakumar Babu 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(3):234-252

The selection of landfill sites for municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal involves consideration of geological, hydrological and environmental parameters which exhibit large spatial variability. Therefore, it is necessary to define, to what extent the chosen sites are reliable such that the probability of environmental pollution and health risks to population is minimal. In the present study, groundwater vulnerability to contamination has been assessed using the standard DRASTIC method. The results showed that the study region has 9.45% of very less, 32.94% of less, 25.47% of moderate, 22.79% of high and 9.35% of very high vulnerable zones. The study also revealed that none of the landfills are located in safe zones. This suggests that it requires proper remedial measures to avoid environmental pollution. A landfill site selection process has been carried out using the Analytical Hierarchy Process integrated with Geographical Information System tools. The obtained results showed that only 3.59?km² (0.08%) of the total area is suitable for landfills. The reliability analysis of the site suitability revealed that landfills are located at unreliable locations where the probability of risk to environmental pollution is high. The presented approach assists decision-makers in selecting reliable locations for the safe disposal of MSW.  相似文献   

Comparative Study of Acid and Alkaline Stimulants with Granite in an Enhanced Geothermal System     

XU Jianan  FENG Bo  CUI Zhenpeng  LIU Xiyao  KE Zunsong  FENG Guanhong 《《地质学报》英文版》2021,95(6):1926-1939

The Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) is an artificial geothermal system that aims to economically extract heat from hot dry rock (HDR) through the creation of an artificial geothermal reservoir. Chemical stimulation is thought to be an effective method to create fracture networks and open existing fractures in hot dry rocks by injecting chemical agents into the reservoir to dissolve the minerals. Granite is a common type of hot dry rock. In this paper, a series of chemical stimulation experiments were implemented using acid and alkaline agents under high temperature and pressure conditions that mimic the environment of formation. Granite rock samples used in the experiments are collected from the potential EGS reservoir in the Matouying area, Hebei, China. Laboratory experimental results show that the corrosion ratio per unit area of rock is 3.2% in static acid chemical experiments and 0.51% in static alkaline chemical experiments. The permeability of the core is increased by 1.62 times in dynamic acid chemical experiments and 2.45 times in dynamic alkaline chemical experiments. A scanning electron microscope analysis of the core illustrates that secondary minerals, such as chlorite, spherical silica, and montmorillonite, were formed, due to acid-rock interaction with plagioclase being precipitated by alkaline-rock interactions. Masking agents in alkaline chemical agents can slightly reduce the degree of plagioclase formation. A chemical simulation model was built using TOUGHREACT, the mineral dissolution and associated ion concentration variation being reproduced by this reactive transport model.  相似文献   

Backward automatic calibration for three-dimensional landslide models     

Giacomo Titti  Giulia Bossi  Gordon G.D.Zhou  Gianluca Marcato  Alessandro Pasuto 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(1):231-241

Back-analysis is broadly used for approaching geotechnical problems when monitoring data are available and information about the soils properties is of poor quality.For landslide stability assessment back-analysis calibration is usually carried out by time consuming trial-and-error procedure.This paper presents a new automatic Decision Support System that supports the selection of the soil parameters for three-dimensional models of landslides based on monitoring data.The method considering a pool of possible solutions,generated through permutation of soil parameters,selects the best ten configurations that are more congruent with the measured displacements.This reduces the operator biases while on the other hand allows the operator to control each step of the computation.The final selection of the preferred solution among the ten best-fitting solutions is carried out by an operator.The operator control is necessary as he may include in the final decision process all the qualitative elements that cannot be included in a qualitative analysis but nevertheless characterize a landslide dynamic as a whole epistemological subject,for example on the base of geomorphological evidence.A landslide located in Northeast Italy has been selected as example for showing the system potentiality.The proposed method is straightforward,scalable and robust and could be useful for researchers and practitioners.  相似文献   

应用分布式存储技术优化省级CIMISS数据服务能力     

宋智  徐晓莉  张常亮  向筱铭  杨雪 《气象科技》2019,47(3):433-438

随着气象数据量的不断增长,进一步提升CIMISS数据管理和服务能力的需求变得日益迫切。为解决存储系统动态扩展能力不足、并行计算与吞吐效率低下等限制CIMISS继续发展的问题,采用分布式文件系统和NAS技术替代GPFS建设共享文件系统,实现非结构化气象数据的存储功能;采用分布式数据库替代Oracle RAC建设关系数据库管理系统,实现结构化气象数据的存储功能和非结构化气象数据的索引功能。实践证明,该方案能够有效地改善CIMISS的数据存储能力、并发响应能力,适应未来气象业务对数据存储和应用的需求。  相似文献   

一次暴雨过程受不同系统影响的动力热力场结构特征     

任丽  关铭  李有缘  王深义 《气象科技》2019,47(6):959-968

本文使用常规观测资料、卫星云图、自动气象站降水量以及0.25°×0.25°的NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对出现在东北地区北部受不同系统影响的连续2d暴雨过程的热力和动力场结构特征展开研究。结果表明:24日为暖锋锋生暴雨,暴雨范围大;25日为台风暴雨,暴雨出现在台风移动路径上,为狭长带状。暴雨是由MCS活动造成的,每次短时强降水均与TBB低值中心相对应,台风倒槽内的MCS强度比暖锋云系内的MCS弱,但是降水强度却更大。台风安比携带大量暖湿空气,其东侧的低空急流向北输送热量和水汽,水汽辐合集中在边界层内,台风暴雨的水汽辐合强度比暖锋暴雨更强烈,所造成的雨强更大。暖锋暴雨期间,小兴安岭迎风坡地形的辐合抬升作用明显;高层强辐散及地形辐合抬升作用对暴雨有较大贡献。台风暴雨期间,低空辐合,特别是水汽辐合作用对暴雨有较大贡献;辐合区位于台风倒槽附近,倒槽表现为冷锋性质。  相似文献