Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests     

Giacomo Grassi  Roberto Pilli  Jo House  Sandro Federici  Werner A. Kurz 《Carbon balance and management》2018,13(1):8

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Backward automatic calibration for three-dimensional landslide models     

Giacomo Titti  Giulia Bossi  Gordon G.D.Zhou  Gianluca Marcato  Alessandro Pasuto 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(1):231-241

Back-analysis is broadly used for approaching geotechnical problems when monitoring data are available and information about the soils properties is of poor quality.For landslide stability assessment back-analysis calibration is usually carried out by time consuming trial-and-error procedure.This paper presents a new automatic Decision Support System that supports the selection of the soil parameters for three-dimensional models of landslides based on monitoring data.The method considering a pool of possible solutions,generated through permutation of soil parameters,selects the best ten configurations that are more congruent with the measured displacements.This reduces the operator biases while on the other hand allows the operator to control each step of the computation.The final selection of the preferred solution among the ten best-fitting solutions is carried out by an operator.The operator control is necessary as he may include in the final decision process all the qualitative elements that cannot be included in a qualitative analysis but nevertheless characterize a landslide dynamic as a whole epistemological subject,for example on the base of geomorphological evidence.A landslide located in Northeast Italy has been selected as example for showing the system potentiality.The proposed method is straightforward,scalable and robust and could be useful for researchers and practitioners.  相似文献   

Snow model sensitivity analysis to understand spatial and temporal snow dynamics in a high‐elevation catchment          下载免费PDF全文

Michael Engel  Claudia Notarnicola  Stefano Endrizzi  Giacomo Bertoldi 《水文研究》2017,31(23):4151-4168

In this paper, we addressed a sensitivity analysis of the snow module of the GEOtop2.0 model at point and catchment scale in a small high‐elevation catchment in the Eastern Italian Alps (catchment size: 61 km²). Simulated snow depth and snow water equivalent at the point scale were compared with measured data at four locations from 2009 to 2013. At the catchment scale, simulated snow‐covered area (SCA) was compared with binary snow cover maps derived from moderate‐resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat satellite imagery. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the effect of different model parameterizations on model performance at both scales and the effect of different thresholds of simulated snow depth on the agreement with MODIS data. Our results at point scale indicated that modifying only the “snow correction factor” resulted in substantial improvements of the snow model and effectively compensated inaccurate winter precipitation by enhancing snow accumulation. SCA inaccuracies at catchment scale during accumulation and melt period were affected little by different snow depth thresholds when using calibrated winter precipitation from point scale. However, inaccuracies were strongly controlled by topographic characteristics and model parameterizations driving snow albedo (“snow ageing coefficient” and “extinction of snow albedo”) during accumulation and melt period. Although highest accuracies (overall accuracy = 1 in 86% of the catchment area) were observed during winter, lower accuracies (overall accuracy < 0.7) occurred during the early accumulation and melt period (in 29% and 23%, respectively), mostly present in areas with grassland and forest, slopes of 20–40°, areas exposed NW or areas with a topographic roughness index of ?0.25 to 0 m. These findings may give recommendations for defining more effective model parameterization strategies and guide future work, in which simulated and MODIS SCA may be combined to generate improved products for SCA monitoring in Alpine catchments.  相似文献   

Study and application of the resonant secular dynamics beyond Neptune     

Melaine Saillenfest  Marc Fouchard  Giacomo Tommei  Giovanni B. Valsecchi 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2017,127(4):477-504

We use a secular representation to describe the long-term dynamics of transneptunian objects in mean-motion resonance with Neptune. The model applied is thoroughly described in Saillenfest et al. (Celest Mech Dyn Astron, doi: 10.1007/s10569-016-9700-5, 2016). The parameter space is systematically explored, showing that the secular trajectories depend little on the resonance order. High-amplitude oscillations of the perihelion distance are reported and localised in the space of the orbital parameters. In particular, we show that a large perihelion distance is not a sufficient criterion to declare that an object is detached from the planets. Such a mechanism, though, is found unable to explain the orbits of Sedna or \(2012\text {VP}_{113}\), which are insufficiently inclined (considering their high perihelion distance) to be possibly driven by such a resonant dynamics. The secular representation highlights the existence of a high-perihelion accumulation zone due to resonances of type 1:k with Neptune. That region is found to be located roughly at \(a\in [100;300]\) AU, \(q\in [50;70]\) AU and \(I\in [30;50]^{\circ }\). In addition to the flux of objects directly coming from the Scattered Disc, numerical simulations show that the Oort Cloud is also a substantial source for such objects. Naturally, as that mechanism relies on fragile captures in high-order resonances, our conclusions break down in the case of a significant external perturber. The detection of such a reservoir could thus be an observational constraint to probe the external Solar System.  相似文献   

Non-resonant secular dynamics of trans-Neptunian objects perturbed by a distant super-Earth     

Melaine Saillenfest  Marc Fouchard  Giacomo Tommei  Giovanni B. Valsecchi 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2017,129(3):329-358

We use a secular model to describe the non-resonant dynamics of trans-Neptunian objects in the presence of an external ten-Earth-mass perturber. The secular dynamics is analogous to an “eccentric Kozai mechanism” but with both an inner component (the four giant planets) and an outer one (the eccentric distant perturber). By the means of Poincaré sections, the cases of a non-inclined or inclined outer planet are successively studied, making the connection with previous works. In the inclined case, the problem is reduced to two degrees of freedom by assuming a non-precessing argument of perihelion for the perturbing body. The size of the perturbation is typically ruled by the semi-major axis of the small body: we show that the classic integrable picture is still valid below about 70 AU, but it is progressively destroyed when we get closer to the external perturber. In particular, for \(a>150\) AU, large-amplitude orbital flips become possible, and for \(a>200\) AU, the Kozai libration islands at \(\omega =\pi /2\) and \(3\pi /2\) are totally submerged by the chaotic sea. Numerous resonance relations are highlighted. The most large and persistent ones are associated with apsidal alignments or anti-alignments with the orbit of the distant perturber.  相似文献   

Vorticity analysis of the Palmi shear zone mylonites: new insights for the Alpine tectonic evolution of the Calabria–Peloritani terrane (southern Italy)     

Vincenzo Festa  Giacomo Prosser  Alfredo Caggianelli  Antonietta Grande  Antonio Langone  Daniela Mele 《Geological Journal》2016,51(4):670-681

New microstructural data on the mylonites from the well‐exposed Palmi shear zone (southern Calabria) are presented with the aim to shed light on both the kinematics and the geometry of the southwestern branch of the Alpine belt during Eocene. In the study area, located between the Sardinia–Corsica block and the Calabria–Peloritani terrane, previous large‐scale geodynamic reconstructions suggest the presence of strike–slip or transform fault zones dissecting the southwestern branch of the Alpine belt. However, there are no field data supporting the occurrence of these structures. This paper uses vorticity analysis technique based on the aspect ratio and the long axis orientation of rigid porphyroclasts in mylonitic marbles and mylonitic granitoids, to estimate the contribution of pure and simple shear of deformation during the movement of the Palmi shear zone. Porphyroclasts aspect ratio and orientation were measured on thin sections using image analysis. Estimates of the vorticity number, W_m, indicate that the Palmi shear zone recorded general shear with a contribution of pure shear of c. 65%. Then, the Palmi shear zone can be interpreted as a segment of a left‐lateral transpressive bend along the southern termination of the Eocene Alpine front. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Fault architecture in the Main Ethiopian Rift and comparison with experimental models: Implications for rift evolution and Nubia–Somalia kinematics     

Andrea Agostini  Marco Bonini  Giacomo Corti  Federico Sani  Francesco Mazzarini 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2011,301(3-4):479-492

The Main Ethiopian Rift (MER) offers a complete record of the time–space evolution of a continental rift. We have characterized the brittle deformation in different rift sectors through the statistical analysis of a new database of faults obtained from the integration between satellite images and digital elevation models, and implemented with field controls. This analysis has been compared with the results of lithospheric-scale analogue models reproducing the kinematical conditions of orthogonal and oblique rifting. Integration of these approaches suggests substantial differences in fault architecture in the different rift sectors that in turn reflect an along-axis variation of the rift development and southward decrease in rift evolution. The northernmost MER sector is in a mature stage of incipient continental rupture, with deformation localised within the rift floor along discrete tectono-magmatic segments and almost inactive boundary faults. The central MER sector records a transitional stage in which migration of deformation from boundary faults to faults internal to the rift valley is in an incipient phase. The southernmost MER sector is instead in an early continental stage, with the largest part of deformation being accommodated by boundary faults and almost absent internal faults. The MER thus records along its axis the typical evolution of continental rifting, from fault-dominated rift morphology in the early stages of extension toward magma-dominated extension during break-up. The extrapolation of modelling results suggests that a variable rift obliquity contributes to the observed along-axis variations in rift architecture and evolutionary stage, being oblique rifting conditions controlling the MER evolution since its birth in the Late Miocene in relation to a constant post ca. 11 Ma ~ N100°E Nubia–Somalia motion.  相似文献   

Magma chambers and localization of deformation during thrusting     

Domenico Montanari  Giacomo Corti  Alexander Simakin 《地学学报》2010,22(5):390-395

Terra Nova, 22, 390–395, 2010 Abstract We present the results of coupled analogue and numerical models that provide new insights into the relationships between volcanoes and thrusts. The effects of both upper‐crustal magma chambers and the load of volcanoes on the geometry of thrust systems were investigated. Analogue modelling points to a strong influence exerted by a magma chamber on thrust geometry, which, as suggested by the numerical models used to rationalize these results, is related to the stress redistribution around the weak heterogeneity. The low‐viscosity body below a volcanic edifice localizes compressional deformation and causes a curvature of the thrusts towards the magma chamber, opposite to the direction of tectonic transport. In these conditions, the volcanic load has a negligible effect on the structural geometry. These results are in contrast with those of previous studies, where intrusions or the load of major volcanoes generated a curvature of the thrusts away from volcanic edifices in the direction of tectonic transport.  相似文献   

The role of the land use, land use change and forestry sector in achieving Annex I reduction pledges   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Giacomo Grassi  Michel G. J. den Elzen  Andries F. Hof  Roberto Pilli  Sandro Federici 《Climatic change》2012,115(3-4):873-881

Annex I Parties may receive credits or debits from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) activities, contributing to achieving individual emission reduction targets. In the Durban climate negotiations, Parties agreed new LULUCF accounting rules for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (CP2). By using these new rules, this paper presents key differences among Parties at the minimum (assuming no additional action) and potential (assuming additional actions) contribution of the forest-related LULUCF activities in achieving the pledges for 2020. Overall, the potential contribution of LULUCF is relatively modest (up to about 2 % of 1990 emissions) for the EU, the Annex I Parties likely joining the CP2, and for the Annex I Parties that joined the CP1 as a whole. However, for specific Parties, LULUCF can make a substantial contribution to achieving the pledges. For New Zealand, for instance, the potential contribution of future LULUCF credits may equal 33 % of its 1990 emission level. For Australia, the pledges are expressed relative to 2000 emission levels including LULUCF emissions. Given that LULUCF emissions have strongly declined between 1990 and 2000, and a further decline in foreseen by 2020 (based on Australia’s projections), the minimum contribution of LULUCF to meet the Australian pledges appears to be about 19 % and 7 % relative to its 1990 and 2000 emission level, respectively. A further 3 % potential contribution is estimated from additional actions.  相似文献   

The Huygens scientific data archive: Technical overview     

Olivier Witasse  Lyle Huber  Jean-Pierre Lebreton  David Heather  John Zarnecki  Roland Trautner  Piero Leon Stoppato  Chuck See  Cyril Pennanech  Lisa McFarlane  Bobby Kazeminejad  Brijen Hathi  John Haberman  Francesca Ferri  Lyn Doose  Giacomo Colombatti  Michael Bird  Alessio Aboudan 《Planetary and Space Science》2008,56(5):770-777

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