自回归总径流线性响应模型在洪水预报中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

李蝶娟  周冰清 《水科学进展》1992,3(2):142-148

采用自回归总径流线性响应(ATLR)模型建立淮河王家坝站洪水预报方案和海河流域南运河水系洪水预报调度方案.自回归TLR模型与TLR模型加误差自回归实时校正模型的结构相同,但前者计算简捷,预报精度也有所提高.  相似文献   

中国及邻近地区冬到夏的季节变化   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张家诚  张先恭  魏凤英 《气象》1995,21(7):3-8

南亚地区在冬到夏的转变过程中有显著的热力学与环境变化特征，是北半球季节变化的敏感区，对我国长期变化有十分重要的意义。根据这一特点，设计计算了南支西风指数，并将副高面积指数分南北区统计，更地地反映了季节变化特征。统计结果表明，这个指数组对梅雨与华北雨季有天气气候学意义。同时还找到了这个指数组对我国一些地区旱涝的前期指标。  相似文献   

闽西震旦系上统变质火山岩的地球化学特征及其大地构造背景     

朱玉磷 《岩石学报》1995,11(3):343-351

福建西部震旦系上统变质火山岩属钙碱性系列。ＲＥＥ分布模式均呈向右倾斜的曲线，具Ｅｕ负异常，富集大离子系亲石元素和亏损地幔岩相容元素，（８６）Ｓｒ／（８７）Ｓｒ初始值０．７１０５～０．７１２６，显示陆壳重熔生成的岩浆特点。它们是在浙南－闽西北加里东期挤压碰增造山作用中陆壳重熔岩浆上升喷发产物。  相似文献   

Implications of εNd—La／Nb,Ba／Nb,Nb／Th Diagrams to Mantle Heterogeneity—Classification of Island—arc Basalts and Decomposition of EMII Component   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李曙光 《中国地球化学学报》1995,14(2):117-127

A group of εNd/Nb,Ba/Nb,Nb/Th diagrams are used to study mantle heterogeneity.Island-arc basalts(IAB) are distributed in a triangle of these diagrams. Three end-member components (the MORB-type depleted mantle, the fluid released from subducted oceanic crust and the sediments from the continental crust) of the source of IAB may be displayed in these diagrams. Two types of IAB are identified .They are of the two-component type (with little continental sediments), such as the basalts from Aletians and New Britain ,and the three-compeonent type, such as those from Sunda, Lesser Antilles and Andes. In addition ,the EMII type mantle-derived rocks may also be divided into two groups. One is exemplified by continental flood basalts and some peridotite xenoliths, similar to IAB, with high La/Nb and Ba/Nb and low Nb/Th ratios, The other includes the Samoa-type oceanic island basalts, with low La/Nb and Ba/Nb and high Nb/Th ratios. The corresponding two sub-components of EMII are EMIIM, which is related to the metasomatism of lithosphere mantle by fluids released from the subducted oceanic crust, and EMIISR, related to the intervention of recycling continental sediments into the convective mantle.  相似文献   

An assessment of the risk from future eruptions of the Soufriere volcano of St. Vincent,West Indies     

Richard E. A. Robertson 《Natural Hazards》1995,11(2):163-191

The Soufriere volcano is a 1220 m high stratovolcano which occupies the northern part of the island of St. Vincent. It is one of the most active centres of volcanism in the Caribbean and has a record of activity dating back to the Pleistocene. Historic eruptions (since 1718) have caused over 1600 deaths and resulted in damage to property valued in excess of 4.8 million USD. In addition, current development plans for the area point towards increased risk of disastrous consequences from future activity at the volcano.All aspects of risk relevant to the volcano, are discussed, with particular emphasis on the manner in which these are perceived and on the question of acceptable risk. A method is presented for use in risk assessment of volcanic hazard and a number of risk zones are defined for the Soufriere volcano. Numerical estimates of the relative loss expected within each zone are obtained from a consideration of the value of property at risk, its vulnerability to the hazardous volcanic events and the expected spatial impact of volcanic events. Such estimates suggest that the northern-most third of the island is at least ten times more at risk than areas further south. The likelihood of death and destruction is extreme in such high risk areas, while the most feasible method of loss reduction is evacuation before an eruption occurs.Formerly at Department of Earth Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom.  相似文献   

Quantitative analysis of springs   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

B. A. Memon 《Environmental Geology》1995,26(2):111-120

Growing demand for groundwater resources and stringent environmental concerns has led to large groundwater investigations, including characterization of aquifer systems that are hydraulically connected to springs. A pumping test is one of the most reliable means of quantifying hydraulic characteristics and the response of natural springs to pumping because it yields results that, in general, are representative of a larger area than are results from a single point observation. Recharge to the aquifer sustaining discharge from springs must be evaluated prior to the utilization of springs. The spring hydrograph is analyzed, as the shape of a hydrograph is a reflection of the response of the aquifer to recharge. The form and rate of recession provide significant information on the storage, lithological composition, and structural characteristics of the aquifer system sustaining the spring. Water tracing techniques have been developed and used over a period of centuries to delineate catchment boundaries, estimate groundwater flow velocities, determine areas of recharge, and identify sources of pollution of spring water.  相似文献   

The Sudbury Structure (Ontario,Canada): a tectonically deformed multi-ring impact basin     

A. Deutsch  R. A. F. Grieve  M. Avermann  L. Bischoff  P. Brockmeyer  D. Buhl  R. Lakomy  V. Müller-Mohr  M. Ostermann  D. Stöffler 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1995,84(4):697-709

The occurrence of shock metamorphic features substantiates an impact origin for the 1.85 Ga old Sudbury Structure, but this has not been universally accepted. Recent improvements in knowledge of large-scale impact processes, combined with new petrographic, geochemical, geophysical (LITHOPROBE) and structural data, allow the Sudbury Structure to be interpreted as a multi-ring impact structure. The structure consists of the following lithologies: Sudbury Breccia —dike breccias occurring up to 80 km from the Sudbury Igneous Complex (SIC); Footwall rocks and Footwall Breccia — brecciated, shocked crater floor materials, in part thermally metamorphosed by the overlying SIC; Sublayer and Offset Dikes, Main Mass of the SIC and Basal Member of the Onaping Formation (OF) — geochemically heterogeneous coherent impact melt complex ranging from inclusion-rich basal unit through a dominantly inclusion-free to a capping inclusion-rich impact melt rock; Grey Member of OF — melt-rich impact breccia (suevite); Green Member of OF — thin layer of fall back ejecta; Black Member of OF — reworked and redeposited breccia material; Onwatin and Chelmsford Formations — post-impact sediments. Observational and analytical data support an integrated step-by-step impact model for the genesis of these units. Analysis of the present spatial distribution of various impact-related lithologies and shock metamorphic effects result in an estimated original rim-to-rim diameter of the final crater of 200 or even 280 km for the Sudbury Structure, prior to tectonic thrusting and deformation during the Penokean orogeny.  相似文献   

硫铝酸盐水泥浆性能调节方案   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

顾元威  王桂敏 《探矿工程》1995,(6):22-23

讨论了水灰比、抖浆水温和有机处理剂对硫铝酸盐水泥浆性能的影响，提出了该水泥浆性能的调节方法。  相似文献   

冰期与间冰期在第四纪地层与岩性上的作用          下载免费PDF全文

袁复礼 《地球科学》1993,18(6):686-698

论述了冰期与间冰期的气候变化与海平面升降的关系以及冰期与间冰期的古地貌，全面系统地阐述了上海地面沉降之后的地质环境，并提出了控制地面沉降的５条建议。  相似文献   

稳定氯同位素分馏机理及其应用的研究     

王佩仪 《地质科技情报》1993,12(3):83-88

过去一直认为稳定氯同位素比值(~(37)Cl/~(35)Cl)几乎不变。80年代以来利用高精度质谱法成功地发现了自然界氯同位素分馏作用。单纯的溶解和对流迁移作用不能引起同位素组分变化,而扩散作用、离子渗透作用和对流混合作用却可导致同位素分馏。各地不同深度海水的氯同位素成分极为一致,故以标准平均海水氯(SMOC)作为对比标准。得克萨斯—路易斯安那海湾油田水的δ~(37)Cl大致为+0.5‰~-1.25‰,且与氯浓度大致呈正相关。热液成矿系统中,氯同位素可作为研究矿床成因的示踪剂,如美国田纳西州密西西比河谷型矿床(MVD)的δ~(37)Cl在+0.2‰~-1.1‰之间,几个斑岩铜矿床(PVD)的早期脉岩与晚期脉岩中不同δ~(37)Cl的存在,都表明在成矿过程中有不同氯源的参与。  相似文献