巴东长江公路大桥桥位边坡稳定可靠性研究     

丛培夫  杨志波 《世界地质》2003,22(3):303-308

以巴东长江公路大桥桥位边坡为例，在前人稳定性评价的基础上，建立了基于剩余推力法和Sarma法的边坡稳定可靠性分析模型，分析表明边坡系统可靠性指标(β，Pf)能更准确地表达边坡稳定性、安全性和工程风险水平。  相似文献   

结构随机响应的一种改进的概率谱叠加方法     

孙凌  吴知丰  周成功  周生震 《世界地震工程》2003,19(2):156-162

目前有一些关于多自由度结构体系的地震响应中响应峰值按降序(即由大到小的顺序)排列时的峰值统计性质的研究。本文对这些研究中的概率方法提出一些改进。由于这些改进，概率谱叠加方法在实际应用中就变得更准确和实用。本文以五层的结构模型为例，计算其在埃尔森特罗(1940)地震激励下的响应，并与时程分析结果进行比较。结果表明，改进的概率谱叠加方法能够谁确的计算较高几阶重要响应峰值的幅值。  相似文献   

地震台阵滤波及子台分布对聚束效果的影响(Ⅱ)——子台分布及聚束效果的分析          下载免费PDF全文

刘旭  朱元清  佟玉霞 《地震工程学报》2003,25(4):293-297

本假设对于确定的相关系数及子台间距存在一个相干波长，将不同频率、震中距的相关性变化的原因归纳为视波长的变化．对近事件而言，几乎不存在相关系数十分理想的子台间距的区间范围．对非理想相关的台阵，应用S．Mykkeltveit等介绍的增益公式来预测台阵的增益，其效果与实际情况吻合的较好．论述了区域台阵与侦察远处事件的台阵有诸多不同之处．  相似文献   

Theory and Method of Mineral Resource Prediction Based on Synthetic Information     

WangShicheng YeShuisheng ZhouDongdai 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2003,14(3):207-214

Metallogenic prognosis of synthetic information uses the geological body and the miaeral resource body as a statistical unit to interpret synthetically the information of geology, geophysics, geo-chemistry and remote sensing from the evolution of geology and puts all the information into one entire system by drawing up digitalized interpretation maps of the synthetic information. On such basis, differ-ent grades and types of mineral resource prospecting models and predictive models of synthetic informa-tion can be established. Hence, a new integrated prediction system will be formed of metallogenic prog-nosis (qualitative prediction), mineral resources statistic prediction (determining targets) and mlaeral resources prediction (determining resources amount).  相似文献   

Theoretical Study on Stochastic Modeling of Combined Gravity-Magnetic-Electric-Seismic Inversion and Its Application     

YanHanjie YanHong LiYunping ZhangXiaofeng 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2003,14(3):227-233

As gravity field,magnetic field,electric field and seismic wave field are all physical fields,their object function,reverse function and compound function are certainly infinite contiuously differentiable func-tions which can be expanded into Taylor (Fourier) series within domain of definition and be further reduced in-to solving stochastic distribution function of series and statistic inference of optimal approximation,This is the basis of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion built on the basis of separation of field and source gravity-magnetic difference-value(D-value)trend surface,taking distribution-independent fault sys-tem as its unit,depths of seismic and electric interfaces of interests as its corresponding bivariate compound re-verse function of gravity-magnetic anomalies and using high order polynomial(high order trigonometric func-tion)approximating to its series distribution,The difference from current dominant inversion techniques is that,first,it does not respectively create gravity-seismic,magnetic-seismic deterministic inversion model from theoretical model,but combines gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic stochastic inversion model from stochastic model;second,after the concept of equivalent geological body being introduced,using feature of independent variable of gravity-magnetic field functions,taking density and susceptibility related to gravity-magnetic func-tion as default parameters of model,the deterministic model is established owing to better solution to the con-tradictioc of difficulty in identifying strata and less test analytical data for density and susceptibility in newly explored area;third,under assumption of independent parent distribution,a real modeling by strata,the prob-lem of difficult plane closure arising in profile modeling is avoided,This technology has richer and more detailed fault and strata information than sparse pattern seismic data in newly explored area,successfully inverses and plots structural map of Indosinian discontinuty in Hefei basin with combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion,With development of high precision gravity-magnetic and overall geophysical technology,it is certain for introducing new methods of stochastic modeling and computational intelligence and promoting the develop-ment of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion to open a new substantial and promoting the develop-ment of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion to open a new substantial path.  相似文献   

用非线性多因子动态组合方法作降水概率预报   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

邵明轩刘凤辉  程维中魏建明窦以文  陈大刚 《气象科技》2003,31(4):206-210

将逐时段定点降水预报这个以往一般作为非连续量处理的预报问题转化为对一个连续的降水可能函数的预报问题。降水可能函数为一由实况值确定的函数。因为现在模式变化较快，且许多因子和降水可能函数为非线性关系，文章采用一种新的非线性多因子动态组合方法，通过对降水可能函数的预报，作客观分站降水概率预报。  相似文献   

地震预测的构造物理模型研究     

邓志辉王绳祖  黄秀铭周本刚 徐好民 《地震》2003,23(2):21-28

在系统收集和分析中国大陆的活动构造、地震活动和地球物理场资料的基础上，初步圈定出769个构造物理潜在震源，并对其中477个位于主要强震区、带内的潜在震源进行了空间几何定量描述和基本震源参数的系统分析，在GIS平台上开发了分析系统，逐一计算了每一潜在震源的十年发震概率，圈定了1999～2008年的强震危险区，根据发震概率的大小对危险区的危险性进行分类。近几年发生的强震与预测结果的对比检验结果表明，用构造物理模型确定的十年地震危险区具有较好的预测效果。  相似文献   

对“对‘径流的趋势分析和概率预测’一文的商榷”的答复          下载免费PDF全文

张世法 《水科学进展》1997,8(4):389-389

承蒙崔振才、田文苓两同志对“径流趋势分析和概率预测”一文提出了讨论意见。  相似文献   

X2检验假设分布有效性的岩体工程应用     

陈剑平  王清  肖树芳  刘莹  黄亦群 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》1996,(3)

在工程地质问题中许多现象是不确定、且具有随机分布的特性，而这种随机分布特性往往可以采用某种形式的密度函数来描述。采用Ｘ２检验假设分布有效性是一个重要的方法，采用该法可以获得观测数据最佳拟合的概率模型，通过自编程序可以同时检验多种概率密度函数并选取最佳模型。本文将介绍这一方法，并通过一个实例加以说明。  相似文献   

江西省金的区域找矿预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

鄢新华 《江西地质》1996,10(2):130-138

本文以全省区域化探扫面资料为主要依据，并结合区域地质资料，在分析了内生金矿区域找矿标志的基础上，以１：５万图幅为基本预测单元，对全省进行了区域找矿预测，并划分出四处找金远景区。  相似文献