Treating the Risks in Cairns     

Ken Durham 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(2):251-261

Cairns is exposed to the well-known natural hazards oftropical cyclone, flood, stormsurge and thunderstorm, but is also exposed to thelesser-known hazards of landslip, earthquake and dam break flooding. Recommendations fortreating the risks associated with these hazards have been made that will involve amulti-disciplinary approach to treatment strategies, require the cooperation of allthree levels of government, involve public utility authorities and private enterprise andinvolve the community as a whole.This paper summarises the suggested mitigation treatmentoptions, presented to the Cairns City Council and identified in the LocalGovernment Disaster Mitigation Project conducted in Cairns in 1999/2000 by theQueensland Department of Emergency Services.  相似文献   

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Nepal Himalaya: A Manageable Hazard?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Kattelmann  Richard 《Natural Hazards》2003,28(1):145-154

Within the past fifteen years, glacial lake outburst floods have become an activetopic of discussion within the development community focused on Nepal. Suchfloods endanger thousands of people, hundreds of villages, and basic infrastructuresuch as trails and bridges. The flood risk is also a major impediment to hydroelectricdevelopment in several river basins. Unlike most other mountain hazards in Nepal,reducing the possibility of outburst floods is technically feasible. The first attemptwithin Nepal to reduce the hazard of one lake by artificially lowering its water levelwas partially completed in June 2000. Completing this task and beginning work onother hazardous lakes will require difficult decisions about risk by downstream residentsand substantial investment from the international aid community.  相似文献   

Community Vulnerability to Tropical Cyclones: Cairns, 1996–2000     

Linda J. Anderson-Berry 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(2):209-232

This paper is a partial discussion of a four-year study that investigated the vulnerability of the people living in the Cairns region to the tropical cyclone hazard. The longitudinal case study, focussing on the Cairns Northern Beaches area, was unique in that it included a social and societal `pre-cyclone impact' evaluation of various resident communities within the region, and then two consecutive `post-cyclone impact' studies. The primary research method supported an inductive qualitative approach to the collection and analysis of survey data. Some quantitative methods were invoked to support qualitative research findings. Survey data was collected in five separate questionnaire-based social surveys that were administered between 1996 and 2000. During the study, residents experiencedthe direct impact of two land-falling tropical cyclones. In addition to this, targeted andfocussed tropical cyclone awareness education was made increasingly available withinthe community. The social and demographic attributes that influence the individual'sperception of risk and contribute to our understanding of community vulnerability were examined and evaluated. Changes in the residents' attitudes, cyclone preparednessbehaviours and willingness to respond to cyclone warnings were monitored and measured. Analysis of early survey data indicated that community residents generally had some knowledge of cyclones but a limited understanding of cyclone processes and very little direct personal experience of the cyclone hazard. Individually and collectively, residents frequently demonstrated a biased perception of the risks associated with cyclones. The resident community was shown to be fragmented, with limited support being available to individual households. Initially, residents were found to be poorly prepared for cyclones and unlikely to respond to warnings appropriately. It appeared that, in the event of a land-falling tropical cyclone impacting the area, the community was highly vulnerable to unnecessary loss of property, livelihood and – in extreme circumstances – life. By 2000, Cairns community residents were somewhat better informed about cyclones and certainly more experienced. This paper provides some insight into how cyclone experience and education may synergisticly have contributed to a change in risk perceptions and a reduction in the vulnerability of Cairns residents to the tropical cyclone and storm surge hazards.  相似文献   

Predictive GIS-Based Model of Rockfall Activity in Mountain Cliffs   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6  

Marquínez  J.  Menéndez Duarte  R.  Farias  P.  JiméNez Sánchez  M. 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):341-360

Rockfall susceptibility has been analysed in mountain cliffs of the Cantabrian Range, North Spain. The main aim of this analysis has been to build a predictive model of rockfall activity from a low number of environmental and geological variables. The rockfall activity has been quantified in a GIS. The cartographic information used shows the spatial distribution of all the recent talus screes as well as their associated source areas in the rock-slopes. The area relation At/Ar (recent talus scree polygon/source basins) in the rock slopes has been used as the rockfall activity indicator. This relation has been validated in 50 pilot rock-slopes and compared with the relation number of recent rock fragments/source basin, obtained from field work. The environmental factors causing rockfall depend on the rock slope situation, and these are: altitude and sun radiation on the rock cliff. The geological factors considered are: lithology, relative position of the main discontinuities with respect to the topographic surface and two morphologic parameters: the roughness and slope gradient. A logistic regression analysis has been applied to a population of 442 limestone and quartzite rock cliffs. The dependent variable is the rockfall activity indicator, which allows the definition of two classes of rock cliff units: low and high activity. The independent variables are altitude, sun radiation (equinox radiation, summer solstice radiation, winter solstice radiation), slope roughness, slope gradient,anisotropy and lithology. Results suggest that it is possible tobuild a valid cartographic predictive model for rockfall activity in mountain rock cliffs from a limited number of easily obtainable variables. The method is especially applicable in massive rock slopes or in regions with uniform rock mass characteristics.  相似文献   

济宁二号矿孤岛工作面冲击矿压危险及其控制   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

何烨  才庆祥  窦林名  张卫东 《岩土力学》2003,(Z2)

孤岛工作面及其周围巷道附近应力集中程度高,顶板运动剧烈,再加上地质构造的影响,采深较大时,冲击危险程度就高,很容易引发冲击矿压。《煤矿安全规程》要求孤岛工作面按冲击矿压危险工作面来管理。孤岛工作面冲击矿压危险检测预报及控制的技术是先分析冲击危险程度,确定冲击危险指数,提出早期预报;采用电磁辐射和钻屑法进行及时预报;采用卸压爆破进行处理,并采用电磁辐射和钻屑法检验防治措施的效果。实践证明,这套技术安全、可靠、有效,能够保证工作面的安全高效生产。  相似文献   

Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain   总被引：9，自引：3，他引：9  

Remondo  Juan  González  Alberto  De Terán  José Ramón Díaz  Cendrero  Antonio  Fabbri  Andrea  Chung  Chang-Jo F. 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):437-449

A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps.  相似文献   

全球增暖的另一可能原因初探   总被引：14，自引：1，他引：14       下载免费PDF全文

李崇银  翁衡毅  高晓清  钟敏 《大气科学》2003,27(5):789-797

太阳是地球流体(大气和海洋等)运动的最终能量源,地球环境,尤其是气候的变化不能不与太阳活动有关.目前,普遍将全球增暖归结为温室气体含量增加所导致的温室效应的加剧,这无疑是有一定依据和有道理的.但从科学上来讲,人类活动所引起温室气体增加的影响,并非是唯一原因.基于已有的一些研究结果,从太阳活动的观点所进行的初步分析表明,太阳活动也可能是引起近世纪全球增暖的另一个重要原因.太阳活动的影响主要包括太阳辐射的直接影响和引发地磁场变化的间接影响两个方面,地球磁场的变化将可通过动力过程和热力过程而影响大气环流和气候的变化.  相似文献   

浅述五大连池火山区浅层气体钍、氡与断裂构造和火山活动的关系     

孙如波  高清武  潘玉林  杨森林 《东北地震研究》2003,19(4):9-17

在五大连池火山区流体化学研究原有工作的基础上，对火山群的重要区段开展了野外踏勘、气体普查，特别是用放射性气体测量方法对火烧山、老黑山、笔架山、药泉山等火山区进行了Tn、Rn测量。通过大量实测资料，分析和研究了Tn、Rn等气体和火山、火山活动、断裂构造、断裂活动性及其他地质条件的关系，初步查明了五大连池火山区的气体组成特征、分布和形成规律，对地下主要气体的成因、气体和火山构造活动及其它地质条件的关系进行了初步探讨，并提出了对五大连池火山区气体观测的初步设想和建议。  相似文献   

昆仑山口西8.1级地震前青藏块体边界断层异常活动   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

范燕  车兆宏 《地震》2003,23(2):121-126

系统分析了青藏块体边界断层的形变资料，研究了断层活动的动态过程及空间分布。结果表明，昆仑山口西8．1级地震前孕震影响范围达到青藏块体的周边地区；发震断层所在的构造带震前断层活动最为剧烈；加强对构造块体断层整体活动的宏观动态比较和分析，有助于判定未来强震发生的危险地段；震后应力将转移并集中到西秦岭构造带及其邻近地区。  相似文献   

青藏及邻区新生代火山活动及构造演化   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12       下载免费PDF全文

邓万明 《地震地质》2003,25(Z1):51-61

青藏高原是现今地球动力学和地质演化研究的一个热点。该区火山活动受中 -新生代以来高原深部地球物理 -化学反应的控制 ,是多种因素相互作用所表现的形式和结果。本区既有富钾质的 (主导 ) ,也有富钠质的火山岩 (次要 ) ;既有喷发熔岩流 (主导 ) ,也有一些浅源上侵的次火山岩体 ;火山活动发育在古近纪、新近纪与第四纪 ,而最强烈的发生在中新世期间。本区钠质和钾质两类火山岩在形成环境和时代上有很大的差异 :前者一般发育在古新世—始新世 (6 0～ 4 0MaBP) ,而后者主要形成在渐新世—中新世 (30～ 10MaBP) ;存在着钠质—钾质—酸性次火山岩的演化过程 ;大体上可划分为西羌塘、北羌塘、可可西里、中昆仑、西昆仑等 5个火山岩省。本文对比了青藏高原及邻区甘肃礼县和云南三岩区 (金沙江北段、腾冲和滇东南地区 )新生代火山岩的岩石组合、同位素年代学以及地球化学特征 ,大量的证据表明 ,这些火山岩形成在原始地幔、或“壳 -幔过渡带”或陆壳基底等源区。在实际考察和综合研究的基础上 ,探讨了岩石圈的区域构造特征及其与高原隆升的关系等  相似文献