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1.
Is Prediction of Future Landslides Possible with a GIS?   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
This contribution explores a strategy for landslide hazard zonation inwhich layers of spatial data are used to represent typical settings inwhich given dynamic types of landslides are likely to occur. Theconcepts of assessment and prediction are defined to focus on therepresentation of future hazardous events and in particular on themyths that often provide obstacles in the application of quantitativemethods. The prediction rate curves for different applications describethe support provided by the different data layers in experiments inwhich the typical setting of hazardous events is approximated bystatistically integrating the spatial information.  相似文献   
2.
A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps.  相似文献   
3.
A methodological proposal for the assessment of impacts due to linear infrastructures such as motorways, railways, etc. is presented. The approach proposed includes a series of specific issues to be addressed for each geomorphological feature analysed—both ‘static’ and ‘dynamic’—as well as a series of steps to be followed in the process.Geomorphic characteristics potentially affected were initially identified on the basis of a conceptual activities/impacts model that helps to single out geomorphic impacts related to environmental concerns for the area. The following issues were addressed for each individual impact: nature of potential effects; indicators that can be used to measure impacts; criteria of ‘geomorphologic performance’; procedure for measurement/prediction of changes; translation of geomorphologic impacts into significant terms from the viewpoint of human concerns; possible mitigation and/or compensation measures.The procedure has been applied to a case study corresponding to a new motorway in the Basque Country, northern Spain. Geomorphological impacts considered in this analysis included: (1) consumable resources; (2) sites of geomorphological interest; (3) land units with high potential for use, high productivity or value for conservation; (4) visual landscape; (5) slope instability processes. The procedure has been designed for implementation in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. Details are given on the application of the method to each individual impact analysed and results are presented in both numerical and map form.Impacts assessed were initially expressed by means of heterogeneous magnitudes, depending on the geomorphological feature considered. Those geomorphological impacts were then translated into significant terms and homogeneous magnitudes. Integration was carried out on the basis of impact values thus obtained. Final integrated results were also expressed in numerical and map form.The method proposed enables comparison of alternatives as well as ‘prediction’ and assessment of impacts in terms directly related to geomorphic characteristics. It also facilitates the expression of those impacts in terms that allow integration with other types of environmental impacts.  相似文献   
4.
A procedure for landslide risk assessment is presented. The underlying hypothesis is that statistical relationships between past landslide occurrences and conditioning variables can be used to develop landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk models. The latter require also data on past damages. Landslides occurred during the last 50 years and subsequent damages were analysed. Landslide susceptibility models were obtained by means of Spatial Data Analysis techniques and independently validated. Scenarios defined on the basis of past landslide frequency and magnitude were used to transform susceptibility into quantitative hazard models. To assess vulnerability, a detailed inventory of exposed elements (infrastructures, buildings, land resources) was carried out. Vulnerability values (0–1) were obtained by comparing damages experienced in the past by each type of element with its actual value. Quantitative risk models, with a monetary meaning, were obtained for each element by integrating landslide hazard and vulnerability models. Landslide risk models showing the expected losses for the next 50 years were thus obtained for the different scenarios. Risk values obtained are not precise predictions of future losses but rather a means to identify areas where damages are likely to be greater and require priority for mitigation actions.  相似文献   
5.
A quantitative procedure for mapping landslide risk is developed from considerations of hazard, vulnerability and valuation of exposed elements. The approach based on former work by the authors, is applied in the Bajo Deba area (northern Spain) where a detailed study of landslide occurrence and damage in the recent past (last 50 years) was carried out. Analyses and mapping are implemented in a Geographic Information System (GIS).The method is based on a susceptibility model developed previously from statistical relationships between past landslides and terrain parameters related to instability. Extrapolations based on past landslide behaviour were used to calculate failure frequency for the next 50 years. A detailed inventory of direct damage due to landslides during the study period was carried out and the main elements at risk in the area identified and mapped. Past direct (monetary) losses per type of element were estimated and expressed as an average ‘specific loss’ for events of a given magnitude (corresponding to a specified scenario). Vulnerability was assessed by comparing losses with the actual value of the elements affected and expressed as a fraction of that value (0–1).From hazard, vulnerability and monetary value, risk was computed for each element considered. Direct risk maps (€/pixel/year) were obtained and indirect losses from the disruption of economic activities due to landslides assessed. The final result is a risk map and table combining all losses per pixel for a 50-year period. Total monetary value at risk for the Bajo Deba area in the next 50 years is about 2.4 × 106 Euros.  相似文献   
6.
Multiple sinkhole susceptibility models have been generated in three study areas of the Ebro Valley evaporite karst (NE Spain) applying different methods (nearest neighbour distance, sinkhole density, heuristic scoring system and probabilistic analysis) for each sinkhole type separately (cover collapse sinkholes, cover and bedrock collapse sinkholes and cover and bedrock sagging sinkholes). The quantitative and independent evaluation of the predictive capability of the models reveals that: (1) The most reliable susceptibility models are those derived from the nearest neighbour distance and sinkhole density. These models can be generated in a simple and rapid way from detailed geomorphological maps. (2) The reliability of the nearest neighbour distance and density models is conditioned by the degree of clustering of the sinkholes. Consequently, the karst areas in which sinkholes show a higher clustering are a priori more favourable for predicting new occurrences. (3) The predictive capability of the best models obtained in this research is significantly higher (12.5–82.5%) than that of the heuristic sinkhole susceptibility model incorporated into the General Urban Plan for the municipality of Zaragoza. Although the probabilistic approach provides lower quality results than the methods based on sinkhole proximity and density, it helps to identify the most significant factors and select the most effective mitigation strategies and may be applied to model susceptibility in different future scenarios.  相似文献   
7.
A method for quantitatively assessing sinkhole susceptibility (spatial probability) and hazard (spatio‐temporal probability) has been developed and independently tested in a 50 km2 sector of the Ebro Valley evaporite karst. Three genetic types of sinkholes have been mapped in the floodplain and a terrace surface: 947 small cover‐collapse sinkholes (type 1, terrace), large collapse sinkholes (type 2, floodplain) and large subsidence depressions (type 3, floodplain). The type 1 sinkhole inventory includes two temporal populations: 447 sinkholes formed before 24 November 2005, and 500 between that date and 2 November 2006. Sinkhole susceptibility models have been elaborated analysing the statistical relationships between the sinkholes of the 2005 inventory and a set of potential conditioning factors. The independent evaluation (validation) of the susceptibility models by means of several strategies (random, sequentially excluded, and temporal) has allowed us to select the most significant variables for each sinkhole type and assess quantitatively the quality of models; which are reasonable for the three sinkhole types. Validation has also provided information on the contribution of specific variables and the effect of changing their accuracy to the prediction capability of models. Susceptibility models for type 3 sinkholes have been validated satisfactorily with the 2006 sinkhole inventory (temporal validation). The best susceptibility model has been transformed into a hazard map considering the frequency of sinkholes that occurred in each susceptibility class between 2005 and 2006, as well as their average size. The susceptibility and hazard models obtained could be used as an objective basis for the application of mitigation measures, either of preventive or corrective nature. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
8.
A quantitative methodology for landslide susceptibility zonationis described and its application to a study area in the lower part of the Deba Valley (Guipúzcoa,Spain) presented. Susceptibility models were obtained on the basis of statisticalrelationships between known mass movements and conditioning factors. A landslide rupturehypothesis was set and a digital database consisting of seventeen causal factors layers constructed.The modelling procedure was implemented utilising a GIS. The susceptibility analysis methodis based on the Favourability Functions approach, and two different mathematicalframeworks: probability theory and Zadehïs fuzzy set theory. Several landslidesusceptibility models were produced and validated using different sets of independent landslide data.The predictive capability of models was determined.  相似文献   
9.
Three types of sinkhole have been mapped in a 50 km2 stretch of the Ebro River valley downstream of Zaragoza: large collapse sinkholes, large shallow subsidence depressions and small cover-collapse sinkholes. The sinkholes relate to the karstification of evaporitic bedrock that wedges out abruptly downstream, giving way to a shale substratum. Twenty-three collapse sinkholes, up to 50 m in diameter by 6 m deep, and commonly hosting saline ponds, have been identified in the floodplain. They have been attributed to the upward stoping of dissolutional cavities formed within the evaporitic bedrock by rising groundwater flows. Twenty-four large shallow subsidence depressions were mapped in the floodplain. These may reach 850 m in length and were formed by structurally controlled interstratal karstification of soluble beds (halite or glauberite? and gypsum) by rising groundwater flow and the progressive settlement of the overlying bedrock and overburden sediments. A total of 447 small cover-collapse, or dropout, sinkholes have been recognized in a perched alluvial level along the southern margin of the valley. These sinkholes result from the upward propagation of voids through the alluvial mantle caused by the downward migration of detrital sediments into dissolutional voids. The majority of these sinkholes, commonly 1·5–2 m in diameter, are induced by human activities. Over the karstic bedrock, there is a significant increase in sinkhole density downstream. This is interpreted as being a result of the evaporitic bedrock wedging out and the convergence of the groundwater flow lines in the karstic aquifer. The collapse sinkholes in this area, locally with a probability of occurrence higher than 140 sinkholes/km2/year, cause substantial damage to the linear infrastructures, buildings and agriculture, and they might eventually cause the loss of human lives. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
10.
A preliminary sinkhole susceptibility analysis has been carried out in a stretch 50 km2 in area of the Ebro valley alluvial evaporite karst (NE Spain). A spatial database consisting of a sinkhole layer and 27 thematic layers related to causal factors was constructed and implemented in a GIS. Three types of sinkholes were differentiated on the basis of their markedly different morphometry and geomorphic distribution: large subsidence depressions (24), large collapse sinkholes (23), and small cover-collapse sinkholes (447). The susceptibility models were produced analysing the statistical relationships between the mapped sinkholes and a set of conditioning factors using the Favourability Functions approach. The statistical analyses indicate that the best models are obtained with 6 conditioning factors out of the 27 available ones and that different factors and processes are involved in the generation of each type of sinkhole. The validation of two models by means of a random-split strategy shows that reasonably good predictions on the spatial distribution of future dolines may be produced with this approach; around 75% of the sinkholes of the validation sample occur on the 10% of the pixels with the highest susceptibility and about 45% of the area can be considered as safe.  相似文献   
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