10～30 d延伸期预报研究进展和业务现状     

金荣花  马杰  毕宝贵 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2010,4(2):1-5

10～30 d延伸期预报在气象业务发展和国民经济服务中具有重要的作用。本文回顾了关于延伸期预报的相关理论和技术研究进展,概要介绍了国内外开展延伸期预报业务现状;结合目前气象科技发展水平,进一步分析和阐述了现阶段我国开展延伸期预报业务亟待解决的关键技术问题,旨在共同探讨和推动延伸期预报业务的发展。  相似文献   

2003年江淮流域强降水过程与30—70d天低频振荡的联系   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：8  

夏芸  管兆勇  王黎娟 《南京气象学院学报》2008,31(1):33-41

利用NCEP／NCAR再分析和地面观测站的逐日降水资料,研究了2003年夏季江淮流域强降水过程与低频振荡的联系。结果显示,主周期为30～70d的低频振荡对2003年江淮流域暴雨的形成具有重要贡献：低频涡旋在江淮地区降水期的对流层高、低层呈负、正配置,具有斜压结构,利于降水发生;850hPa上正涡度系统的传播具有明显的北传和西传特征;存在于西太平洋、西北太平洋及其以东地区的低频波列（P—J）的活动过程影响了我国2003年江淮低频强降水的形成;整层低频水汽通量显示来自副热带高压外围的西南季风对水汽输送的贡献较显著,且2003年江淮地区30-70d时间尺度上降水的水汽来源为南海而非孟加拉湾或西太平洋。  相似文献   

Acoustic-Gravity Waves from Bolide Sources     

Douglas O. ReVelle 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2008,102(1-4):345-356

We have developed a new approach to modeling the acoustic-gravity wave (AGW) radiation from bolide sources. This first effort involves entry modeling of bolide sources that have available satellite data through procedures developed in ReVelle (Earth Moon Planets 95, 441–476, 2004a; in: A. Milani, G. Valsecchi, D. Vokrouhlicky (eds) NEO Fireball Diversity: Energetics-based Entry Modeling and Analysis Techniques, Near-earth Objects: Our Celestial Neighbors (IAU S236), 2007b). Results from the entry modeling are directly coupled to AGW production through line source blast wave theory for the initial wave amplitude and period at (at 10 blast wave radii and perpendicular to the trajectory). The second effort involves the prediction of the formation and or dominance of the propagation of the atmospheric Lamb, edge-wave composite mode in a viscous fluid (Pierce, J. Acoust. Soc. Amer. 35, 1798–1807, 1963) as a function of the source energy, horizontal range and source altitude using the Lamb wave frequency that was deduced directly during the entry modeling and that is used as a surrogate for the source energy. We have also determined that Lamb wave production by bolides at close range decreases dramatically as either the source energy decreases or the source altitude increases. Finally using procedures in Gill (Atmospheric-Ocean Dynamics, 1982) and in Tolstoy (Wave Propagation, 1973), we have analyzed two simple dispersion relationships and have calculated the expected dispersion for the Lamb edge-wave mode and for the excited, propagating internal acoustic waves. Finally, we have used the above formalism to fully evaluate these techniques for four large bolides, namely: the Tunguska bolide of June 30, 1908; the Revelstoke bolide of March 31, 1965; the Crete bolide of June 6, 2002 and the Antarctic bolide of September 3, 2004. Due to page limitations, we will only present results in detail for the Revelstoke bolide.  相似文献   

Cultivated land change in the Belt and Road Initiative region   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Di Chen  Qiangyi Yu  Qiong Hu  Mingtao Xiang  Qingbo Zhou  Wenbin Wu 《地理学报(英文版)》2018,28(11):1580-1594

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)–a development strategy proposed by China – provides unprecedented opportunities for multi-dimensional communication and cooperation across Asia, Africa and Europe. In this study, we analyse the spatio-temporal changes in cultivated land in the BRI countries (64 in total) to better understand the land use status of China along with its periphery for targeting specific collaboration. We apply FAO statistics and GlobeLand30 (the world’s finest land cover data at a 30-m resolution), and develop three indicator groups (namely quantity, conversion, and utilization degree) for the analysis. The results show that cultivated land area in the BRI region increased 3.73×10⁴ km² between 2000 and 2010. The increased cultivated land was mainly found in Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, while the decreased cultivated land was mostly concentrated in China. Russia ranks first with an increase of 1.59×10⁴ km² cultivated land area, followed by Hungary (0.66×10⁴ km²) and India (0.57×104 km2). China decreased 1.95×10⁴ km² cultivated land area, followed by Bangladesh (–0.22×10⁴ km²) and Thailand (–0.22×10⁴ km²). Cultivated land was mainly transferred to/from forest, grassland, artificial surfaces and bare land, and transfer types in different regions have different characteristics: while large amount of cultivated land in China was converted to artificial surfaces, considerable forest was converted to cultivated land in Southeast Asia. The increase of multi-cropping index dominated the region except the Central and Eastern Europe, while the increase of fragmentation index was prevailing in the region except for a few South Asian countries. Our results indicate that the negative consequence of cultivated land loss in China might be underestimated by the domestic- focused studies, as none of its close neighbours experienced such obvious cultivated land losses. Nevertheless, the increased cultivated land area in Southeast Asia and the extensive cultivated land use in Ukraine and Russia imply that the regional food production would be greatly improved if China’ “Go Out policy” would help those countries to intensify their cultivated land use.  相似文献   

Climate Change of 4°C Global Warming above Pre-industrial Levels     

Xiaoxin WANG  Dabang JIANG  Xianmei LANG 《大气科学进展》2018,35(7):757-770

Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4°C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4°C global warming will occur is 2084. Based on the median results of models that project a 4°C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-to-noise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5°C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the inter-model consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation.  相似文献   

河流相砂体识别预测及古气候响应: 以渤中坳陷石南地区明下段为例          下载免费PDF全文

李东伟  龚承林  王军  李一超  李虹  戈道瑶 《古地理学报》1999,24(4):742-758

河流相砂体的识别预测及其发育演化对古气候变化的响应是当前河流相沉积研究的热点。基于地震沉积学方法,采用三步走的河流相砂体识别预测方法(井震结合建格架→90°相位调整标岩性→切片属性辨砂体),在渤海湾盆地渤中坳陷石臼坨凸起南部(石南)新近系明化镇组下段(简称“明下段”)识别出了顺直和蜿蜒河道砂、河道—堤坝复合体、点砂坝、河口坝、牛轭湖和决口扇6种河流相砂体。依据明下段泥岩颜色,结合藻类种属记录和孢粉记录分析,认为石南地区明下段沉积早期到中期经历了干湿交替→湿润主导的湿润化气候演变; 而明下段沉积中期到晚期经历了湿润主导→干旱主导的干旱化气候演变。润湿化气候演变使得明下段沉积中期河流相砂体宽度和单层厚度减小、弯曲度增大,且带状孤立河道砂体更发育; 而干旱化气候演变使得明下段沉积晚期流相砂体宽度和单层厚度增大、弯曲度减小,且带状河道—溢岸复合带和河口坝砂更发育。研究成果可为其他断陷盆地河流相砂体识别、预测提供参考,对指导构造活动相对较弱的湖盆萎缩期油气勘探实践具有一定的实践价值。  相似文献   

联合钻孔资料及地形数据估算宝鸡地区v_S30     

韶丹  孙哲  田勤虎 《地震地磁观测与研究》2017,39(1):117-122

将地形数据经过坡度计算,利用坡度与v_S30相关关系,计算宝鸡地区场地近似v_S30。为了得到接近实际的波速分布,借助宝鸡地区钻孔资料,研究选定区域内v_S30近似值与实测结果的差异,并对差异的空间变化趋势进行分析,在此基础上,对模型估算的v_S30进行修正,进而得到接近实际的v_S30分布,并给出基于NEHRP的宝鸡地区场地分类。  相似文献   

北京平原地区V_S30估算模型适用性研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

江志杰  彭艳菊  方怡  吕悦军  修立伟  黄帅 《震灾防御技术》2018,13(1):75-86

本文使用基于钻孔测井数据的3类模型,即常速度外推模型、速度梯度模型、双深度参数外推模型,通过对北京地区460个深度超过30m的钻孔剪切波速资料进行分析,详细探究了V_S30估算模型在本研究区的适用性。研究结果表明双深度参数外推模型在估算V_S30上准确度很高,其不需要大量的数据进行回归分析,且不具有区域独立性,可以为全球包括北京地区场地类别划分提供依据,进而在震害快速评估中用于确定场地影响,是一种值得推广的估算模型。  相似文献   

粉质黏土填料在K30试验加载进程中的变形时间效应状态分析     

熊勇  罗强  张良  蒋良潍  朱江江 《岩土力学》2018,39(3):863-871

变形稳定标准和分级加载制度是影响K30试验效率和准确性的关键因素,与加载进程中填土的变形时间效应状态密切相关。开展了3组最优含水率下压实系数K分别为0.90、0.95和1.00填土模型的小型平板载荷试验,获得了不同荷载作用下填土变形时程曲线和弹塑性变形数据,讨论了在K30试验加载进程中填土变形状态的变化及其对加载稳定时间的影响。试验表明：良好压实的粉质黏土填料,在K30试验进程中的变形以弹性为主,处于缓慢收敛状态,随着加载级数增加,塑性变形比例逐渐增大,变形时间效应呈现出由微弱进入明显状态的演化趋势,变形1.25 mm对应于缓慢收敛中的微弱时间效应亚状态;“变形速率不超过0.01 mm/min”变形稳定标准分级加载时间随时间效应指数呈加速增长规律,能在保证试验精度的基础上提高试验效率;以最大荷载下填土变形时间效应不应超过显著状态、变形量不小于1.25 mm为约束条件,针对5级加载、0.04 MPa荷载增量的加载制度,可得K30试验的适宜范围为60～160 MPa/m。  相似文献   

Genesis of anhydrite in hydrothermally altered basalt from the East Pacific Rise near 13°N     

CHEN Shuai  WANG Xiaoyuan  YIN Xuebo  ZHANG Guoliang 《海洋学报(英文版)》2013,32(2)

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