且末绿洲1961-2010年霜冻的变化特征及其对主要农作物的影响     

黄玖君  师国强  邓小霞 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2013,7(2):47-50

利用且末绿洲近50 a初、终霜日等气候资料,分析该地区的霜冻变化特征,初步探讨其对主要农作物的影响.结果表明:且末绿洲近50 a来终霜危害大于初霜,初霜冻推迟、终霜冻提前趋势明显,无霜期呈微弱延长趋势但不显著;初、终霜均具有5a、33 a的振荡周期,未来一段时期均处在偏晚期;进入21世纪以后未出现特早初霜和特晚终霜.总体上看,气候变暖使该地区霜冻灾害减少,对主要农作物的生长有利.  相似文献   

西藏前冬环流及地温特征与夏季旱涝关系   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

普布卓玛  唐叔乙  卓嘎 《高原气象》2008,27(6)

选取西藏地区各区域内严重干旱年和严重洪涝年各5年,分析了北半球500hPa高度距平场同期和前冬环流,同时对旱涝年前冬地温距平与当年夏季旱涝的关系也进行了相关分析。结果表明,干旱年和洪涝年前冬（12月～2月）环流距平分布状况和地温距平有明显差异,这些不同特征是预测西藏夏季旱涝的信号和重要因子。夏季伊朗高压位置偏北或偏南,西太平洋高压脊线和西脊点位置都有一定的指示意义。同时,也可根据2月500hPa高度场正、负距平区位置特点,预测了西藏主要农业区沿雅鲁藏布江一线雨季偏迟或偏早。  相似文献   

东亚地区水汽输送与重庆夏季旱涝的联系   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

周浩  刘晓冉  程炳岩 《高原气象》2008,27(6)

利用NCEP/NCAR(1960—2006年)的全球再分析格点资料,研究了东亚地区水汽输送异常与重庆夏季旱涝的关系。结果表明:当重庆夏季(7~8月)降水偏多(涝)时,欧亚地区中高纬维持"两脊一槽"的"双阻"型:乌拉尔山和鄂霍茨克海地区分别存在阻高,贝加尔湖地区为一槽区。冷空气沿着贝加尔湖槽后偏北风和乌拉尔山阻塞高压的南支西风南下进入中国。热带太平洋地区为显著的高度距平正异常区。副热带地区是高度距平负异常区,西太平洋副热带高压脊线位置偏南、强度偏强。来自热带海洋地区的暖湿气流分别沿西太平洋副热带高压西南侧和经印度、孟加拉湾两条主要路径进入中国。当来自高、低纬地区的冷、暖空气在长江流域中上游相遇,就会造成重庆等长江中上游地区降水异常偏多,发生洪涝。反之,降水偏少(旱)年,在欧亚中高纬地区存在"一槽一脊"的环流形势:乌拉尔山附近为一深厚的槽区;鄂霍茨克海阻塞高压异常发展,一直延伸到贝加尔湖附近;西欧地区维持着深厚的高压脊。西太平洋副热带高压位置偏北、偏东,主体基本退出中国大陆地区。整个热带为高度距平负异常区。这样环流形势致使东亚地区中高纬地区受乌拉尔山大槽影响盛行偏南风,不利于冷空气南下。低纬地区的暖湿气流沿着西太平洋副热带高压南面的东南气流从华南进入中国。这样的环流配置易造成南下的冷空气偏弱,同时使来自热带地区的暖空气向北推进到中国华北和东北地区,致使冷、暖空气无法在长江中上游地区交汇,该区域降水显著减少,形成干旱。  相似文献   

变性台风Winnie(9711)环流中的锋生现象   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4  

李英  陈联寿  雷小途 《大气科学》2008,32(3):629-639

基于T106一日四次1.125°×1.125°格点资料, 采用非地转湿Ｑ矢量对登陆台风Winnie(9711)变性加强过程中环流内的锋生现象进行诊断分析。结果表明, Winnie变性加强与其环流内的中尺度锋生过程密切相关, 其低层环流中可发现包围台风中心的环状锋生现象。其中, 北侧锋带与西侧锋带在结构、性质上有所不同, 北侧锋具有暖锋特征, 而西侧锋具有冷锋特点。台风残余低压环流中心位于两条锋带的交汇处, 其变性加强过程类似于一个温带气旋在地面锋上的发展过程。Winnie变性加强过程中, 北侧暖锋锋生强, 锋面次级环流明显, 降水区主要出现在该锋带附近。西侧冷锋锋生弱, 无明显锋面次级环流, 降水不明显。强锋生区首先在台风上空高层产生, 随后增强下传, 加强了低层锋生过程。中低层锋生强度以及锋上垂直运动与凝结潜热作用有密切关系。  相似文献   

Paleoclimatic changes in southern Africa during the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation: evidence from ODP Leg 175 Site 1085     

B. A. Christensen  J. L. Kalbas  M. Maslin  R. W. Murray 《Marine Geology》2002,180(1-4):117-131

Pliocene age sediments from Ocean Drilling Program Leg 175, Site 1085-A and B in the Cape Basin were analyzed to investigate the impact of the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation (INHG) on the South Atlantic Benguela Current system from 4 to 2 Ma. Proxies for productivity (concentrations and mass accumulation rates of total organic carbon, carbon to nitrogen ratios, percent calcium carbonate, and percent biogenic silica) as well as weight percent sand (a proxy for preservation or winnowing) peak at 3.2, 3.0, 2.4, and 2.25 Ma. Normative calculations of allied trace and major elemental determinations indicate synchronous increases in productivity peaks, as well as high concentrations and accumulations of terrigenous sediments. Coeval increases in hemipelagic sedimentation and productivity indicators could be the result of enhanced eolian sedimentation resulting from strengthened winds, leading to elevated rates of upwelling and enhanced productivity. However, rapid burial, as indicated by high sedimentation rates, could also enhance preservation. The very high concentrations (>30%) and accumulations (up to 60 g/cm²/kyr) limit the likelihood that eolian sedimentation was the only transport mechanism, invoking an additional fluvial source. Rapid burial by either eolian or fluvial transport links these intervals of enhanced preservation and productivity with continental climate changes resulting from (1) increased winds and/or dust availability due to higher aridity in the Namibia/northern South Africa region; (2) lowered sea-level related to increased ice volume; (3) increased sediment load due to wetter conditions in the continental interior; or (4) some combination. Peaks at 3.2, 2.4 and 2.25 Ma are coincident with maximum precession, suggesting a link between hemipelagic sedimentation and enhanced monsoonal circulation over southern Africa. The Site 1085 sedimentary record during the INHG seems to be controlled by low-latitude processes linked to precession rather than hig-latitude processes.  相似文献   

西藏则不吓铅锌矿床地质、物化探特征及找矿前景     

杜保峰  杨长青  李光耀  何凯  张荣臻  李滢琪 《地质与勘探》2019,55(4):965-974

则不吓铅锌矿床为冈底斯成矿带中部西段新发现的热液脉型铅锌矿床。依据成矿地质条件、地球化学异常、高磁异常和激电异常、矿体特征等综合分析,区内成矿元素以Pb、Zn、Ag等元素为主,是寻找中低温热液型铅锌银多金属矿的有利地区,并指示其深部可能存在隐伏岩体,地表出露的断裂构造很可能是岩浆侵入在顶部引爆形成的裂隙,而各类岩脉为深部岩体向上延伸的分支。综合认为,该矿床找矿前景很好,后续通过进一步勘查可望取得更大的找矿突破,同时应注意在热液脉型铅锌矿体深部对斑岩型钨钼铜矿或隐爆角砾岩型铅锌银矿的识别和寻找,以拓展区内找矿空间和矿种类型。  相似文献   

Identification of the anomaly component using BEMD combined with PCA from element concentrations in the Tengchong tin belt,SW China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yongqing Chen  Lina Zhang  Binbin Zhao 《地学前缘(英文版)》2019,10(4):1561-1576

Concentration of elements or element groups in a geological body is the result of multiple stages of rockforming and ore-forming geological processes.An ore-forming element group can be identified by PCA(principal component analysis)and be separated into two components using BEMD(bi-dimensional empirical mode decomposition):(1)a high background component which represents the ore-forming background developed in rocks through various geological processes favorable for mineralization(i.e.magmatism,sedimentation and/or metamorphism);(2)the anomaly component which reflects the oreforming anomaly that is overprinted on the high background component developed during mineralization.Anomaly components are used to identify ore-finding targets more effectively than ore-forming element groups.Three steps of data analytical procedures are described in this paper; firstly,the application of PCA to establish the ore-forming element group;secondly,using BEMD on the o re-forming element group to identify the anomaly components created by different types of mineralization processes; and finally,identifying ore-finding targets based on the anomaly components.This method is applied to the Tengchong tin-polymetallic belt to delineate ore-finding targets,where four targets for Sn(W)and three targets for Pb-Zn-Ag-Fe polymetallic mineralization are identified and defined as new areas for further prospecting.It is shown that BEMD combined with PCA can be applied not only in extracting the anomaly component for delineating the ore-finding target,but also in extracting the residual component for identifying its high background zone favorable for mineralization from its oreforming element group.  相似文献   

Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

We explore how smallholder agricultural systems in the Kenyan highlands might intensify and/or diversify in the future under a range of socio-economic scenarios. Data from approximately 3000 households were analyzed and farming systems characterized. Plausible socio-economic scenarios of how Kenya might evolve, and their potential impacts on the agricultural sector, were developed with a range of stakeholders. We study how different types of farming systems might increase or diminish in importance under different scenarios using a land-use model sensitive to prices, opportunity cost of land and labour, and other variables. We then use a household model to determine the types of enterprises in which different types of households might engage under different socio-economic conditions. Trajectories of intensification, diversification, and stagnation for different farming systems are identified. Diversification with cash crops is found to be a key intensification strategy as farm size decreases and labour costs increase. Dairy expansion, while important for some trajectories, is mostly viable when land available is not a constraint, mainly due to the need for planting fodders at the expense of cropland areas. We discuss the results in relation to induced innovation theories of intensification. We outline how the methodology employed could be used for integrating global and regional change assessments with local-level studies on farming options, adaptation to global change, and upscaling of social, environmental and economic impacts of agricultural development investments and interventions.  相似文献   

Cultivated land change in the Belt and Road Initiative region   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Di Chen  Qiangyi Yu  Qiong Hu  Mingtao Xiang  Qingbo Zhou  Wenbin Wu 《地理学报(英文版)》2018,28(11):1580-1594

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)–a development strategy proposed by China – provides unprecedented opportunities for multi-dimensional communication and cooperation across Asia, Africa and Europe. In this study, we analyse the spatio-temporal changes in cultivated land in the BRI countries (64 in total) to better understand the land use status of China along with its periphery for targeting specific collaboration. We apply FAO statistics and GlobeLand30 (the world’s finest land cover data at a 30-m resolution), and develop three indicator groups (namely quantity, conversion, and utilization degree) for the analysis. The results show that cultivated land area in the BRI region increased 3.73×10⁴ km² between 2000 and 2010. The increased cultivated land was mainly found in Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, while the decreased cultivated land was mostly concentrated in China. Russia ranks first with an increase of 1.59×10⁴ km² cultivated land area, followed by Hungary (0.66×10⁴ km²) and India (0.57×104 km2). China decreased 1.95×10⁴ km² cultivated land area, followed by Bangladesh (–0.22×10⁴ km²) and Thailand (–0.22×10⁴ km²). Cultivated land was mainly transferred to/from forest, grassland, artificial surfaces and bare land, and transfer types in different regions have different characteristics: while large amount of cultivated land in China was converted to artificial surfaces, considerable forest was converted to cultivated land in Southeast Asia. The increase of multi-cropping index dominated the region except the Central and Eastern Europe, while the increase of fragmentation index was prevailing in the region except for a few South Asian countries. Our results indicate that the negative consequence of cultivated land loss in China might be underestimated by the domestic- focused studies, as none of its close neighbours experienced such obvious cultivated land losses. Nevertheless, the increased cultivated land area in Southeast Asia and the extensive cultivated land use in Ukraine and Russia imply that the regional food production would be greatly improved if China’ “Go Out policy” would help those countries to intensify their cultivated land use.  相似文献   

Scenarios of land system change in the Lao PDR: Transitions in response to alternative demands on goods and services provided by the land     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2016

Sudden and gradual land use changes can result in different socio-ecological systems, sometimes referred to as regime shifts. The Lao PDR (Laos) has been reported to show early signs of such regime shifts in land systems with potentially major socio-ecological implications. However, given the complex mosaic of different land systems, including shifting cultivation, such changes are not easily assessed using traditional land cover data. Moreover, regime shifts in land systems are difficult to simulate with traditional land cover modelling approaches. A novel simulation approach was employed that focused on simulating changes in land systems rather than focusing on land cover. With the CLUmondo model we simulated three scenarios of potential developments between the years 2010 and 2030 assuming different degrees of international market integration and sustainable growth objectives. Although all scenarios show a decline of shifting cultivation systems, the respective orientation of markets and land governance resulted in strongly different land change trajectories. The land system changes are strongly location dependent and different trajectories are found in different parts of the country. Some scenarios show clear elements of land sparing with intensification of land management in the valleys and re-growth of forest on sloping land. Other scenarios show elements of enhanced multi-functionality. The approach addressed methodological challenges in simulating land system regime shifts and complex mosaic landscapes while accounting for societal demands for different types of goods and services from land systems. The land systems approach allows a nuanced representation of different types of forests and agricultural systems such as shifting cultivation and commercial agricultural plantations. Simulation results contribute to a debate about desired future land use on the national scale including its environmental and socio-economic implications.  相似文献