Using neural networks and cellular automata for modelling intra‐urban land‐use dynamics     

C. M. Almeida  J. M. Gleriani  E. F. Castejon  B. S. Soares‐Filho 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(9):943-963

Empirical models designed to simulate and predict urban land‐use change in real situations are generally based on the utilization of statistical techniques to compute the land‐use change probabilities. In contrast to these methods, artificial neural networks arise as an alternative to assess such probabilities by means of non‐parametric approaches. This work introduces a simulation experiment on intra‐urban land‐use change in which a supervised back‐propagation neural network has been employed in the parameterization of several biophysical and infrastructure variables considered in the simulation model. The spatial land‐use transition probabilities estimated thereof feed a cellular automaton (CA) simulation model, based on stochastic transition rules. The model has been tested in a medium‐sized town in the Midwest of São Paulo State, Piracicaba. A series of simulation outputs for the case study town in the period 1985–1999 were generated, and statistical validation tests were then conducted for the best results, based on fuzzy similarity measures.  相似文献   

Fuzzy inference guided cellular automata urban‐growth modelling using multi‐temporal satellite images     

S. Al‐kheder  J. Wang 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(11-12):1271-1293

This paper presents a fuzzy inference guided cellular automata approach. Semantic or linguistic knowledge on urban development is expressed as fuzzy rules, based on which fuzzy inference is applied to determine the urban development potential for each pixel. A defuzzification process converts the development potential to the required neighbourhood development level, which is taken by cellular automata as initial approximation for its transition rules. Such approximations are updated through spatial calibration over townships and temporal calibration with multi‐temporal satellite images. Assessment of the modelling results is based on three evaluation measures: fitness and Type I and Type II errors. The approach is applied to model the growth of the city of Indianapolis, Indiana over a period of 30 years from 1973 to 2003. A fitness level of 100 ±20% with 30% average errors can be achieved for 80% of the townships in urban‐growth prediction.  相似文献   

A review of assessment methods for cellular automata models of land-use change and urban growth     

Xiaohua Tong 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(5):866-898

ABSTRACT

Cellular automata (CA) models are in growing use for land-use change simulation and future scenario prediction. It is necessary to conduct model assessment that reports the quality of simulation results and how well the models reproduce reliable spatial patterns. Here, we review 347 CA articles published during 1999–2018 identified by a Scholar Google search using ‘cellular automata’, ‘land’ and ‘urban’ as keywords. Our review demonstrates that, during the past two decades, 89% of the publications include model assessment related to dataset, procedure and result using more than ten different methods. Among all methods, cell-by-cell comparison and landscape analysis were most frequently applied in the CA model assessment; specifically, overall accuracy and standard Kappa coefficient respectively rank first and second among all metrics. The end-state assessment is often criticized by modelers because it cannot adequately reflect the modeling ability of CA models. We provide five suggestions to the method selection, aiming to offer a background framework for future method choices as well as urging to focus on the assessment of input data and error propagation, procedure, quantitative and spatial change, and the impact of driving factors.  相似文献   

基于GIS和元胞自动机的玛纳斯河流域典型绿洲景观格局优化          下载免费PDF全文

朱磊  刘雅轩 《干旱区地理》2013,36(5):946-954

近几十年来,玛纳斯河流域以耕地面积过度扩张、山区林地与草地退化为代表的一系列不可持续的发展方式已对区域生态安全和土地可持续利用构成了威胁。通过利用遥感影像与GIS方法,以沙湾县和农八师垦区为研究区,定量评价了区域土地利用的空间适宜性,并将其与国家退耕还林还草政策作为主要约束条件,建立元胞自动机模型对研究区景观格局进行了空间优化。结果表明：（1）1976-2012年,研究区耕地面积显著扩张,增加的耕地主要由未利用地、草地和林地转换而来;林地面积净减少幅度达65.90%,转出林地中有58.33%转换为耕地;草地净面积在研究时段内虽略有增加,但仍有6.352×10⁴ hm²的草地转换为耕地,占草地转出总面积的66.03%;（2）耕地、林地和草地适宜性等级处于I级（很适宜）和Ⅱ级（适宜）的面积分别占研究区总面积的79.74%、70.23%和59.82%;（3）优化后,区域内耕地、林地和草地三者的比例由原来的6.04∶0.39∶3.57调整为4.03∶0.99∶4.98。优化结果在一定程度上减缓了耕地的扩张,提高了林地、草地所占比例,有利于该区域绿洲生态系统的稳定性和社会经济可持续发展。  相似文献   

基于能量耗散原理的非均质岩石损伤破坏元胞自动机模型研究     

皮智鹏  肖建清  胡和平 《地震学刊》2014,(2):235-241

基于能量耗散理论建立非均质岩石的动态损伤破坏元胞自动机,分析单轴压缩试验中岩石破坏截面的损伤状态,得到该情况下的岩石裂隙微观动态发展过程、损伤演化关系以及全程应力应变曲线。研究发现：①加载过程中,均质度较低的岩样裂纹的萌生和扩展较为分散,损伤速率低;均质度较高的岩样裂纹的萌生和扩展非常集中,表现为脆性破坏。②损伤演化曲线呈3阶段S形发展。③随着岩石均质度参数的增加,岩石的峰值强度和峰值应变都有所提高,峰后曲线越来越陡。④给出的衡量岩石脆性破坏强弱程度的指标参数,能够较好地描述岩石破坏形式随着均值度参数m变化的规律。  相似文献   

基于Logistic-CA-Markov模型的石漠化空间变化规律研究   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

马士彬  张勇荣  安裕伦 《中国岩溶》2015,34(6):591-598

为了揭示岩溶地区石漠化发生、发展的一般规律,文章以贵州省六枝特区为例,获取了1990、2000、2010年石漠化数据。利用Logistic-CA-Markov模型探讨石漠化发生的驱动因子及各类型间的转移情况,并在两种情景模式下对研究区2020年石漠化空间分布进行模拟。结果表明:（1）利用Logistic模型回归分析石漠化驱动因子,能够较好的反映其分布状况,CA-Markov耦合模型模拟石漠化空间分布,精度达到理论要求。（2)无石漠化、潜在石漠化、轻度石漠化、中度石漠化演变过程中受人为因素影响大于自然因素,而强度和极强度石漠化则相反。（3）在现有石漠化演化速率情景下,各等级石漠化的演变轨迹为修复与恶化并存模式,最突出的是潜在和轻度石漠化。（4）在喀斯特山地生态产业修复和封山育林结合情景下,石漠化修复与恶化并存的双重轨迹模式改为以修复为主的单一轨迹模式,其中轻度和中度石漠化治理效果最为突出。因此石漠化治理措施重点应针对轻度和中度石漠化分布区,注重协调人地矛盾,防止利用过程中返回式演变。   相似文献   

地理模拟优化系统GeoSoS及前沿研究   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

黎夏  李丹  刘小平  何晋强 《地球科学进展》2009,24(8):899-907

提出地理模拟优化系统(GeoSOS)的概念、研究内容和实现方法,以提供一种十分有效的地理过程分析和空间探索的工具。地理模拟优化系统的理论基础涉及复杂系统理论、地理信息科学、计算机科学、地理学等。所提出的地理模拟优化系统由3个子模块构成:元胞自动机模拟子系统、多智能体模拟子系统和基于生物智能的优化子系统。建立地理模拟优化系统可以为复杂资源环境及变化提供一种有效的模拟和优化工具,弥补目前GIS对过程分析功能的严重不足。  相似文献   

基于扩展CA的文化传播时空模拟研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

罗平  何素芳  伍兆强  杜清运 《热带地理》2002,22(4):371-374,381

文化传播影响因素复杂，具有空间上的相邻、不相邻、选择、随机等扩散形式和时间上的遗传特征，其时空模拟必须借助复杂系统研究方法。元胞自动机模型（CA）与GIS集成在地理过程模拟方面具有很大的优势。文中在分析元胞空间关系和元胞邻居描述的基础上，提出元胞邻居存在几何间上的邻接形式和空间上不邻接但属性上相关的邻居形式。据此，通过对文化革新扩散的实质、空间形式、影响因素等分析，对立了基于邻居扩展CA的文化传播系统模型，并利用该模型对文化传播现象进行了实验研究，取得了比较满意的实验结果。  相似文献   

Simulating the Curti–Sarno debris flow through cellular automata: the model SCIDDICA (release S₂)     

D D’Ambrosio  S Di Gregorio  G Iovine  V Lupiano  L Merenda  R Rongo  W Spataro 《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2002,27(36):1577-1585

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A Moore's cellular automaton model to get probabilistic seismic hazard maps for different magnitude releases: A case study for Greece     

A. Jimnez  A.M. Posadas 《Tectonophysics》2006,423(1-4):35

Cellular automata are simple mathematical idealizations of natural systems and they supply useful models for many investigations in natural science. Examples include sandpile models, forest fire models, and slider block models used in seismology. In the present paper, they have been used for establishing temporal relations between the energy releases of the seismic events that occurred in neighboring parts of the crust. The catalogue is divided into time intervals, and the region is divided into cells which are declared active or inactive by means of a threshold energy release criterion. Thus, a pattern of active and inactive cells which evolves over time is determined. A stochastic cellular automaton is constructed starting with these patterns, in order to simulate their spatio-temporal evolution, by supposing a Moore's neighborhood interaction between the cells. The best model is chosen by maximizing the mutual information between the past and the future states. Finally, a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map is given for the different energy releases considered. The method has been applied to the Greece catalogue from 1900 to 1999. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for energies corresponding to m = 4 and m = 5 are close to the real seismicity after the data in that area, and they correspond to a background seismicity in the whole area. This background seismicity seems to cover the whole area in periods of around 25–50 years. The optimum cell size is in agreement with other studies; for m > 6 the optimum area increases according to the threshold of clear spatial resolution, and the active cells are not so clustered. The results are coherent with other hazard studies in the zone and with the seismicity recorded after the data set, as well as provide an interaction model which points out the large scale nature of the earthquake occurrence.  相似文献