张北6.2级地震序列显著余震现场灰色预测     

平建军  孙佩卿 《华北地震科学》1998,16(3):39-45

根据张家口地震台记录的１９９８年张北早期地震序列资料,对其显著余震（系指ＭＬ≥４．０,下同）建立了ＧＭ（１,１）动态灰色预测模型,并进而依此模型对张北震区主震后,短时内连续发生的５次显著余震进行了尝试性现场预测,结果与实事较吻合,表明灰色预测方法对于探讨如何简捷有效地预测地震序列早期强余震问题,可能具有一定的实际意义。  相似文献   

地震前兆信息量的研究：（一）地震异常延续有效性的研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

平建军  罗兰格 《华北地震科学》1998,16(2):30-36

根据我国大陆５８个Ｍｓ≥５级地震的震列资料,详细地研究了地震异常延续有效时间与持续时间的相关关系,给出了由地震异常持续时间计算地震异常预测的有效时间（即地震异常延续有效时间的最优估值）的公式,经多种数理统计方法检验,证明这一公式是保信、可用的。这为进一步深入开发的震异常前兆信息量的研究奠定了基础,同时也为日常地震会商中常震确定地震异常延续有效性问题,提供了定量分析判定依据,因此本研究具有一定的实际  相似文献   

Some applications of humidity profiles estimated from INSAT infra red digital cloud imagery data     

Onkari Prasad  Sant Prasad  Kanti Prasad  R. R. Kelkar 《Journal of Earth System Science》1998,107(1):5-18

Moisture profiles have been estimated over the region bounded by the latitudes 40°N and 40°S and longitudes 30°E to 130°E using INSAT digital infra red cloud imagery data. The representativeness of these profiles in representing moisture field associated with the development and movement of synoptic scale systems during the period September 15th, 1996 to March 31st, 1997 has been examined. It has been shown that the changes in the moisture field associated with the withdrawal of the southwest and northeast monsoons from the Indian sub-continent, development and movement of synoptic scale sytems (depressions, tropical cyclones and waves in easterlies) and equatorial troughs in the Indian Ocean could be clearly seen in humidity profiles. The initial development of tropical systems is first seen in the humidity field in the upper troposphere. These profiles could be used in monitoring the initial development and subsequent movement of tropical systems. Further the data on moisture distribution from the data gap regions of the Indian Ocean could be used as an additional source of moisture in numerical analysis and prognosis.  相似文献   

夹皮沟金矿燕山期花岗岩体外接触带构造控矿及成矿预测   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

孙忠实  杨永强  冯亚民 《地质找矿论丛》1998,13(3):15-23

夹皮沟金矿床主要成矿时代和控矿构造类型－直悬而未决,矿区及外围找矿始终处于徘徊阶段,经控矿构造深部组成和岩浆岩,脉岩,金矿石相互间关系的研究,金主要成矿归代为燕山期,控矿构造类别属外接触带断裂型,找矿靶区应重点选在燕山期隐伏花岗岩体北东侧变质围岩中。  相似文献   

应用“八·五”短临预报方法分析福建地区地震     

林世敏 《福建地震》1998,(2)

本文利用“八·五”短临预报的地震学攻关成果来分析福建地区的几个震例,检验其在福建地区的适用情况。  相似文献   

探讨气候变化的新热点:大气气溶胶的气候效应   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  

付培健  王世红  陈长和 《地球科学进展》1998,13(4):387-392

气溶胶的气候效应是近年来研究的热点问题。针对这一问题已开展过许多观测研究和模式研究。但是由于气溶胶问题的复杂性以及对气溶胶的观测历史短,至今尚缺少全球范围的气溶胶系统观测资料,所以目前气溶胶的辐射强迫仍是个很不确定的量。这直接影响对全球气候变化的预测。目前国内外正在加强这方面的研究工作,并且有了一些初步的结果。概述了近期国内外对气溶胶的气候效应的研究状况及结果,介绍了今后国际上将要在这一领域开展的研究工作。  相似文献   

多维标度法在矿产预测中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杨永强 《世界地质》1998,(1)

在矿产预测中常涉及一些定性变量,对这些变量的分析和应用,必须将定性描述的地质特征转化为用数值表示的变量,这就需要处理此问题的方法——多维标度法。笔者介绍了计量性的Ｔｏｒｇｅｒｓｏｎ法、准计量性的林知已夫数量化理论和非计量性多维标度法,并列举了其在矿产预测中的应用实例。  相似文献   

用历史类比法对中国强震活动的概率预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈立军  周霞 《福建地震》1998,(1)

本文将20世纪全球强震活动划分为7个活动期,以国内中强以上地震同期活动资料进行比较,对未来国内强震活动趋势作出中期的统计概率预测,似乎可以作为一个较为有力的判据。  相似文献   

A review of rock mechanics studies in the United States pertinent to earthquake prediction   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. Byerlee 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1978,116(4-5):586-602

Premonitory phenomena such as dilatancy, creep, acoustic emission, and changes in seismic velocity and attenuation, electrical resistivity, magnetic moment, and gas emission, which occur before fracture of initially intact rock and before stick-slip on faults or between finely ground surfaces of rock, have been reviewed and discussed in relation to earthquake prediction. This review is restricted to the results of laboratory experiments that have been carried out in the United States of America.  相似文献   

Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

W. R. McCann  S. P. Nishenko  L. R. Sykes  J. Krause 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1979,117(6):1082-1147

The theory of plate tectonics provides a basic framework for evaluating the potential for future great earthquakes to occur along major plate boundaries. Along most of the transform and convergent plate boundaries considered in this paper, the majority of seismic slip occurs during large earthquakes, i.e., those of magnitude 7 or greater. The concepts that rupture zones, as delineated by aftershocks, tend to abut rather than overlap, and large events occur in regions with histories of both long- and short-term seismic quiescence are used in this paper to delineate major seismic gaps.In detail, however, the distribution of large shallow earthquakes along convergent plate margins is not always consistent with a simple model derived from plate tectonics. Certain plate boundaries, for example, appear in the long term to be nearly aseismic with respect to large earthquakes. The identification of specific tectonic regimes, as defined by dip of the inclined seismic zone, the presence or absence of aseismic ridges and seamounts on the downgoing lithospheric plate, the age contrast between the overthrust and underthrust plates, and the presence or absence of back-arc spreading, have led to a refinement in the application of plate tectonic theory to the evaluation of seismic potential.The term seismic gap is taken to refer to any region along an active plate boundary that has not experienced a large thrust or strike-slip earthquake for more than 30 years. A region of high seismic potential is a seismic gap that, for historic or tectonic reasons, is considered likely to produce a large shock during the next few decades. The seismic gap technique provides estimates of the location, size of future events and origin time to within a few tens of years at best.The accompanying map summarizes six categories of seismic potential for major plate boundaries in and around the margins of the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean, South Sandwich and Sunda (Indonesia) regions for the next few decades. These categories range from what we consider high to low potential for being the site of large earthquakes during that period of time. Categories 1, 2 and 6 define a time-dependent potential based on the amount of time elapsed since the last large earthquake. The remaining categories, 3, 4, and 5, are used for areas that have ambiguous histories for large earthquakes; their seismic potential is inferred from various tectonic criteria. These six categories are meant to be interpreted as forecasts of the location and size of future large shocks and should not be considered to be predictions in which a precise estimate of the time of occurrence is specified.Several of the segments of major plate boundaries that are assigned the highest potential, i.e., category 1, are located along continental margins, adjacent to centers of population. Some of them are hundreds of kilometers long. High priority should be given to instrumenting and studying several of these major seismic gaps since many are now poorly instrumented. The categories of potential assigned here provide a rationale for assigning prorities for instrumentation, for future studies aimed at predicting large earthquakes and for making estimates of tsunami potential.Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Contribution No. 2906.  相似文献