中国飞蝗(Locusta migratoria)灾害地理分布模拟及其生物气候因子分析          下载免费PDF全文

张杰  张旸  赵振勇  李敏 《干旱区地理》2019,42(3):590-598

飞蝗Locusta migratoria (Linnaeus)系斑翅蝗科Oedipodidae飞蝗属Locusta Linnaeus洲际性农业重大害虫,在我国主要包括东亚飞蝗L.migratoria manilensis (Meyen)、亚洲飞蝗[WTBX]L.migratoria[WTBZ] (Linnaeus)和西藏飞蝗L.migratoria tibetensis Chen。掌控飞蝗灾害的地理空间分布并预测起潜在的适宜分布区,对于我国飞蝗灾害的综合防控具有重要意义。结合三种中国飞蝗灾害记录地理信息和生物环境环境因子参数,应用最大熵模型(MaxEnt) 和地理信息技术(GIS) ,在3 km×3 km尺度上对三种飞蝗灾害在中国的地理分布空间格局梯度、灾害风险概率和风险等级进行了模拟预测与分析,并对影响分布的关键生物气候环境因子进行了分析。结果显示,蝗灾害风险区的地理分布模拟结果与历史记录完全符合,ROC检验表明MaxEnt 模型预测可靠性极高。三种飞蝗东亚飞蝗、亚洲飞蝗和西藏飞蝗在中国的灾害风险区总面积依次分别为315.87×10⁴ km²、395.80×10⁴ km²和125.00×10⁴ km²,分别占国土面积的33.43%、41.96% 和13.25%。东亚飞蝗和亚洲飞蝗的灾害风险区存在75.8×10⁴ km²的空间重叠,主要分布于我国农牧交错区及以南区域。三种飞蝗灾害风险区的地理梯度与分布格局与中国三大自然地理区高度吻合,其地理分布格局表现出显著的经度和纬度空间梯度异质性。刀切法检测（Jackknife test）表明,三种飞蝗灾害的主导生物—气候影响因子的不同导致了其地理分布格局的显著差异,表明蝗灾爆发概率同时受到各自不同飞蝗物种对气候环境的适应性与地理空间隔离作用的共同制约。研究结果可为我国飞蝗灾害的跨界联合全程防控、区域联网监测联控和综合治理提供参考依据。  相似文献   

南昌市建设用地适宜性扩展路径研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

冯祥瑞  陈竹安  危小建  施陈敬 《测绘通报》2019,(12):116-121

快速城市化过程中,建设用地持续吞噬优质土地资源,造成生态环境恶化。本文以移动窗口法获取建设用地源地,选取经济和社会因子构建阻力体系,生成MCR面,通过自然断点分级法获取适宜性分区,通过ArcGIS中的Hydrology扩展模块获得适宜扩展路径、生态隔离带和生态关键点,为未来城市建设用地扩展方向和生态建设提供借鉴。结果表明：①南昌市70%的区域属于允许建设区,对于维持城市生态环境的重要区域,应当重点保护,兼顾经济-生态共同发展;②利用Hydrology扩展模块对南昌市MCR面进行进行特征提取,发现主城区北部和西部较适宜建设用地扩张;③生态关键点对于维持城市生态环境具有重要作用,未来规划中应重点保护,限制开发。  相似文献   

Feasible conversion degree of dryland to paddy field in Jinxian County,Jiangxi province,China     

Dun Yu  R. D. Ramsey  Xiao-Min Zhao  Yong-Qi Fu  Cong-Kang Sun 《国际地球制图》2019,34(9):1042-1053

The purpose of this paper was to evaluate the feasibility of conversion from dryland to paddy field in Jinxian County under the water resources constraint and dryland suitability condition. We constructed a water resources balance model to evaluate irrigation needs and a dryland suitability model that coupled various spatial data layers. Our research showed that under the water resources constraint, the amount of conversion from dryland to paddy field was 26,971.69 ha and the feasible conversion degree of dryland to paddy field was 0.84, while under the dryland suitability condition, it was 23,262.74 ha and 0.72, respectively. According to the principle of maximum constraint, we conclude that the feasible conversion degree of dryland to paddy field was 0.72. This research can provide an objective and scientific basis for carrying out a programme of farmland conversion in counties of China as well as similar areas worldwide.  相似文献   

江西贵溪市近50年气候特征分析   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

洪文平 《气象与减灾研究》2007,30(1):68-72

利用1953—2002年贵溪市国家一级站的气象资料,分析了近50 a贵溪市气温、降水、日照的变化特征。分析结果表明,贵溪市年、冬季气温呈上升趋势,而夏季气温呈下降趋势,20世纪90年代冬季增温最为明显;年降水总体呈略上升趋势,90年代降水量异常偏多;年日照时数总体呈下降趋势。分析结果还表明,贵溪市气候正在趋向变暖,特别是近10 a来气温升高明显。  相似文献   

Habitat suitability index of Chub mackerel (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Scomber japonicus</Emphasis>) from July to September in the East China Sea   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xinjun Chen  Gang Li  Bo Feng  Siquan Tian 《Journal of Oceanography》2009,65(1):93-102

The habitat quality of Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the East China Sea has been a subject of concern in the last 10 years due to large fluctuations in annual catches of this stock. For example, the Chinese light-purse seine fishery recorded 84000 tons in 1999 compared to 17000 tons in 2006. The fluctuations have been attributed to variability in habitat quality. The habitat suitability Index (HSI) has been widely used to describe fish habitat quality and in fishing ground forecasting. In this paper we use catch data and satellite derived environmental variables to determine habitat suitability indices for Chub mackerel during July to September in the East China Sea. More than 90% of the total catch was found to come from the areas with sea surface temperature of 28.0°–29.4°C, sea surface salinity of 33.6–34.2 psu, chlorophyll-a concentration of 0.15–0.50 mg/m³ and sea surface height anomaly of −0.1–1.1 m. Of the four conventional models of HSI, the Arithmetic Mean Model (AMM) was found to be most suitable according to Akaike Information Criterion analysis. Based on the estimation of AMM in 2004, the monthly HSIs in the waters of 123°–125°E and 27°30′–28°00′ N were more than 0.6 during July to September, which coincides with the catch distribution in the same time period. This implies that AMM can yield a reliable prediction of the Chub mackerel’s habitat in the East China Sea.  相似文献   

甘蔗黄点病发病规律调查     

何红  何春林  冯荣扬  谢平  蔡木林  康付国  魏冬添 《广东海洋大学学报》1999,(1)

调查了不同甘蔗品种、施肥水平、蔗田地势及气候条件下,甘蔗黄点病的发生情况。结果表明,甘蔗品种间对黄点病的抗（感）病性存在显著差异,Ｒｏｃ部分品种较感病,其中Ｒｃｏ１０最感病;７９／１７７、７１／２１０、９３／２９３及果蔗等品种（系）较抗病．氮肥可加重黄点病发生,钾肥可减轻黄点病发生。蔗田地势低洼、易积水,病害发生严重．温度适宜、天气长期阴雨、田间湿度大,有利于黄点病发生;在此条件下,若遇台风袭击,黄点病可能大流行．  相似文献   

The Mid-Cenomanian Event in southeastern France: Evidence from palaeontological and clay mineralogical data     

《Cretaceous Research》2013

Reconstruction of main palaeoenvironmental conditions across the Mid-Cenomanian Event (MCE I) in the hemipelagic Tethyan section of Blieux (Southeast France, Vocontian Basin) is proposed. Quantitative analyses of calcareous nannofossil, ammonoid and clay mineral assemblages have been made and compared with respect to sea level changes and the carbon cycle perturbations. The nannofossil primary productivity, as recorded by nannofossil fluxes and relative abundances of meso-eutrophic taxa, is low just below and during the MCE Ia, then slightly increases in the interval including the MCE Ib. The clay assemblages mainly consist of illite/smectite mixed-layers with a smaller proportion of kaolinite. The percentage of kaolinite strongly decreases in the interval including the MCE Ia and slightly increases in the interval including the MCE Ib. The clay assemblages are mainly detrital in origin and reflect environmental changes including differential settling processes, climate, intensity of runoff and detrital sources. The ammonoid assemblages are characterised by a significant change during the MCE I: planispirals (mainly Schloenbachia) are dominant until the MCE Ia, whereas heteromorphs (mainly Sciponoceras) become dominant from the MCE Ib onwards. Strongly oligotrophic levels in sea surfaces are recorded during the MCE Ia and are related both to arid climatic conditions and major sea level fall (both 3rd order and medium scale lowstand deposits). A decrease in bathymetry could partly explain the decrease in the relative abundance of Schloenbachia. The first occurrence of Sciponoceras took place during the MCE Ib; this second positive increase in δ¹³C is not associated with enhanced nannofossil primary productivity. No clear relations can be established between the occurrence of Sciponoceras and trophic resources.  相似文献   

Multi-criteria spatial screening and uncertainty analysis applied to direct-use geothermal projects     

Calvin A. Whealton  Jery R. Stedinger  Jared D. Smith  Teresa E. Jordan  Franklin G. Horowitz  Maria C. Richards 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(10):2053-2076

ABSTRACT

The focus of this work is general methods for prioritization or screening of project sites based on the favorability of multiple spatial criteria. We present a threshold-based transformation of each underlying spatial favorability factor into a continuous scale with a common favorability interpretation across all criteria. We compare several methods of computing site favorability and propagating uncertainty from the data to the favorability metrics. Including uncertainty allows decision makers to determine if seeming differences among sites are significant. We address uncertainty using Taylor series approximations and analytical distributions, which are compared to computationally intensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our methods are applied to siting direct-use geothermal energy projects in the Appalachian Basin, where our knowledge about any particular site is limited, yet sufficient data exist to estimate favorability. We consider four factors that contribute to site favorability: the thermal resource described by the depth to 80°C rock, natural reservoir productivity described by rock permeability and thickness, potential for induced seismicity, and the estimated cost of surface infrastructure for heat distribution. Those factors are combined in three ways. We develop favorability uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis methods. All methods are general and can be applied to other multi-criteria spatial screening problems.  相似文献   

PALEONTOLOGY     

《Abstract of Chinese Geological Literature》2014,(2)

正20140961 Zhang Linna(Graduate University,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China);Fan Junxuan The Applications of Species Distribution Models in Palaeontology(Acta Palaeontologica Sinica,ISSN0001-6616,CN32-1188/Q,52(2),2013,p.146-160,7  相似文献   

基于层次分析法-模糊综合评价模型的浅层地热能适宜性评价——以山东省昌乐县为例     

张承斌 《中国地质调查》2022,9(2):91-99

层次分析法-模糊综合评价模型可有效解决传统评价分析方法难以对模糊概念进行定量评价以及受主观影响较大等问题,使评价结果更加合理、精确。综合选取单一岩体厚度、地下水埋深、含水层总厚度、地层岩性、导热系数、比热容和地温等7个评价因子,运用层次分析法-模糊综合评价模型对山东省昌乐县浅层地热能适宜性进行了评价,将研究区划分为适宜性中等区和适宜性差区,适宜性中等区面积为44.71 km²,适宜性差区面积为10.29 km²。结合昌乐县城市规划,将研究区进一步划分为一般开发区、鼓励开发区、大力发展区和限制开发区。研究区浅层地热能开发利用潜力较大,合理开发利用可带来巨大的经济和社会效益。  相似文献