A new assessment model for evacuation vulnerability in urban areas     

Xiaoyi Ma  Ci Song  Chenghu Zhou 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(12):2401-2420

In the high-speed urbanization process of China, the urban population has been increasing significantly, leading to a high-density aggregation of population. However, the sharp increase in population density has not produced commensurate improvements in the road networks. On the contrary, the population increase induced a serious evacuation vulnerability, which cities experience during various hazards and catastrophic events. Therefore, research on evacuation vulnerability is important to urban planning. To assess the evacuation vulnerability, the optimal and worst scenarios should be considered because all possible evacuation plans occur between these extremes. However, most previous evacuation vulnerability studies are based on the worst-case scenario, only providing an upper bound of a potential evacuation assessment. To provide a more comprehensive theoretical basis for decision-makers to understand the consequences caused by all possible evacuations, this paper proposes an optimal evacuation vulnerability assessment model that provides the lower bound on potential evacuation difficulties. The model is solved by a stepwise spreading algorithm based on Graph Theory. Subsequently, to evaluate the effectiveness of the model, the study adopts the model to assess the evacuation capability of different road network topologies. A comparison with previous research was performed. The model was demonstrated in an application to the South Luogu Alley of Beijing, China. The significance of this paper is that the combination of our model with previous research may provide a more complete theoretical basis for an evacuation vulnerability assessment.  相似文献   

Multi-factor sensitivity analysis on the stability of submarine hydrate-bearing slope     

《China Geology》2018,1(3):367-373

There are many factors affecting the instability of the submarine hydrate-bearing slope (SHBS), and the interaction with hydrate is very complicated. In this paper, the mechanical mechanism of the static liquefaction and instability of submarine slope caused by the dissociation of natural gas hydrate (NGH) resulting in the rapid increase of pore pressure of gas hydrate-bearing sediments (GHBS) and the decrease of effective stress are analyzed based on the time series and type of SHBS. Then, taking the typical submarine slope in the northern South China Sea as an example, four important factors affecting the stability of SHBS are selected, such as the degree of hydrate dissociation, the depth of hydrate burial, the thickness of hydrate, and the depth of seawater. According to the principle of orthogonal method, 25 orthogonal test schemes with 4 factors and 5 levels are designed and the safety factors of submarine slope stability of each scheme are calculated by using the strength reduction finite element method. By means of the orthogonal design range analysis and the variance analysis, sensitivity of influential factors on stability of SHBS are obtained. The results show that the degree of hydrate dissociation is the most sensitive, followed by hydrate burial depth, the thickness of hydrate and the depth of seawater. Finally, the concept of gas hydrate critical burial depth is put forward according to the influence law of gas hydrate burial depth, and the numerical simulation for specific submarine slope is carried out, which indicates the existence of critical burial depth.  相似文献   

喜马拉雅淡色花岗岩——关键金属Sn-Cs-Tl的富集机制     

高利娥  曾令森  严立龙  高家昊  赵令浩 《岩石学报》2021,37(10):2923-2943

关键金属是全球高科技产业不可或缺的战略性资源,其富集机制和成矿作用是目前国际矿床学研究的热点之一。我们对喜马拉雅带吉隆和亚东地区淡色花岗岩开展系统的地球化学研究,发现侵入到藏南拆离系的淡色花岗岩含有较高的Sn、Cs、Tl、Be、W、B、Li和Bi。全岩元素地球化学分析表明,这些淡色花岗岩具有如下特征：（1）富集关键金属元素;（2）为原始岩浆经历斜长石、锆石、独居石、磷灰石、云母分离结晶作用后的残余熔体;（3）关键元素的富集和矿化与花岗岩高度分离结晶作用密切相关。随着分异程度的增强,岩浆变为富挥发分的高SiO₂体系,关键金属元素在残余熔体中富集,并且最后可能形成具有工业价值的矿床。由于地球化学特征的相似性,Cs和Tl呈类质同象替代钾、铷进入云母中。富集关键金属元素的花岗岩在时间上和空间上属于与藏南拆离系相关的同构造侵位花岗岩,藏南拆离系的活动促使了原始岩浆的广泛分离结晶作用,以及后期的关键金属元素（如Rb、Cs和Tl）的富集。  相似文献   

近20年来长江经济带生态环境变化          下载免费PDF全文

周权平  张澎彬  薛腾飞  姜月华  郭琳  杨冉冉 《中国地质》2021,48(4):1127-1141

长江经济带发展战略实施以来,长江上、中、下游地区经济快速发展,与此同时,生态系统不可避免受到扰动,长江经济带生态环境状况面临压力,亟需开展长江经济带生态环境质量评价。本文选取2001年和2020年MODIS和Landsat遥感影像计算湿度、绿度、干度、热度4个评价指标,通过主成分分析方法计算遥感生态指数RSEI,对长江经济带11省(市)生态环境现状及变化进行定量分析评价。结果表明长江经济带整体生态环境等级为较优,2001—2020年保持总体向好态势。空间分布上,生态环境优等区域主要分布于武夷山、罗霄山、雪峰山、武陵山、巫山、大巴山、大别山、西双版纳等山地丘陵一带,生态环境较差及差等区域主要分布于大中小城镇等人类聚集地、川西横断山区。时空变化上,生态环境等级下降区域主要集中在长三角太湖周边、江汉平原、洞庭湖周边、安徽西北部、湖南南部及四川盆地等人类聚集地周边,生态环境等级上升区域主要集中在四川盆地大部、重庆山区及三峡库区、贵州大部、云南东南部、安徽中部及北部、江苏北部等地区。  相似文献   

Structural,Kinematic and Geochronological Study of the Main Tianshan Shear Zone in the Borohoro Ranges,NW China     

LIU Tianlun  CHEN Siyu  ZHANG Bo  CAI Ked  HAN Baofu  QU Junfeng  GUO Lei  WANG Meng 《《地质学报》英文版》2021,95(5):1431-1455

The western segment of the Main Tianshan shear zone (MTSZ) branches into three major dextral strike-slip shear zones in the Borohoro Ranges, northwestern China. Mylonitic rocks within these zones exhibit vertical foliations, subhorizontal lineations, and dextral kinematics. The microstructures and CPO patterns of calcite and quartz in the tectonites suggest shearing at temperatures of 200°C to 500°C or above. The amount of dextral displacement along the zones is less than 100 km. LA-ICP-MS U-Pb dating of zircons from some pre-kinematic granites gave ages of 364–325 Ma and 316 Ma, and zircons from a syn-kinematic leucogranite gave an age of 291 Ma. We propose that dextral shearing along the MTSZ started in the earliest Permian. Our data indicate that collision between the Yili and Junggar plates might have finished before 325 Ma or 316 Ma, with a tectonic transformation from 325 Ma to 300 Ma, resulting in intracontinental transpression from 300 Ma or 291 Ma. We suggest that the formation of the Kazakhstan orocline (KO) took place in two stages, with the early stage of bending driven by convergence related to oblique subduction, and the late stage possibly associated with lateral disarticulation as a result of the dextral strike-slip shear zones.  相似文献   

模型揭示的浅水湖泊稳态转换影响因素分析     

邓文文  王荣  刘正文  郑文秀  张晨雪 《地球科学进展》2021,36(1):83-94

富营养化会导致浅水湖泊发生稳态转换,生态系统服务严重受损。磷是驱动湖泊发生稳态转换的重要环境因子,探究湖水磷浓度的变化规律是湖泊管理的关键。通过磷动力学模型,从影响湖水磷浓度的主要参数入手,探讨了每种参数变化对磷浓度的具体影响。结合前人研究结果,详细讨论了不同类型气候变化和人类活动对湖泊稳态转换时间、滞后时长、修复速率等的影响。研究认为,气候变化所导致的温度升高、光强减弱、风浪增强等和人类活动所导致的生物扰动、水位波动增强等因素变化虽不会改变湖泊稳态转换突变时间,但会推迟湖泊修复时间,造成突变阈值减小,滞后时间延长,稳态增大。在湖泊保护中要重点考虑主要外力驱动对湖泊稳态转换过程影响的区别,避免有害突变的发生。  相似文献   

Historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Mohammad Heidarzadeh  Moharram D. Pirooz  Nasser H. Zaker  Ahmet C. Yalciner  Mohammad Mokhtari  Asad Esmaeily 《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(8-9):774-786

Tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, was studied by numerical modeling of historical tsunami in this region. Although the MSZ triggered the second deadliest tsunami in the Indian Ocean, among those known, the tsunami hazard in this region has yet to be analyzed in detail. This paper reports the results of a risk analysis using five scenario events based on the historic records, and identifies a seismic gap area in western Makran off the southern coast of Iran. This is a possible site for a future large earthquake and tsunami. In addition, we performed numerical modeling to explain some ambiguities in the historical reports. Based on the modeling results, we conclude that either the extreme run-up of 12–15 m assigned for the 1945 Makran tsunami in the historical record was produced by a submarine landslide triggered by the parent earthquake, or that these reports are exaggerated. The other possibility could be the generation of the huge run-up heights by large displacements on splay faults. The results of run-up modeling reveal that a large earthquake and tsunami in the MSZ is capable of producing considerable run-up heights in the far field. Therefore, it is possible that the MSZ was the source of the tsunami encountered by a Portuguese fleet in Dabhul in 1524.  相似文献   

Dissolved iron in the Australian sector of the Southern Ocean (CLIVAR SR3 section): Meridional and seasonal trends     

P.N. Sedwick  A.R. Bowie  T.W. Trull   《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2008,55(8):911-925

We report measurements of dissolved iron (dFe, <0.4 μm) in seawater collected from the upper 300 m of the water column along the CLIVAR SR3 section south of Tasmania in March 1998 (between 42°S and 54°S) and November–December 2001 (between 47°S and 66°S). Results from both cruises indicate a general north-to-south decrease in mixed-layer dFe concentrations, from values as high as 0.76 nM in the Subtropical Front to uniformly low concentrations (<0.1 nM) between the Polar Front and the Antarctic continental shelf. Samples collected from the seasonal sea-ice zone in November–December 2001 provide no evidence of significant dFe inputs from the melting pack ice, which may explain the absence of pronounced ice-edge algal blooms in this sector of the Southern Ocean, as implied by satellite ocean-color images. Our data also allow us to infer changes in the dFe concentration of surface waters during the growing season. South of the Polar Front, a comparison of near-surface with subsurface (150 m depth) dFe concentrations in November–December 2001 suggests a net seasonal biological uptake of at least 0.14–0.18 nM dFe, of which 0.05–0.12 nM is depleted early in the growing season (before mid December). A comparison of our spring 2001 and fall 1998 data indicates a barely discernible seasonal depletion of dFe (0.03 nM) within the Polar Frontal Zone. Further north, most of our iron profiles do not exhibit near-surface depletions, and mixed-layer dFe concentrations are sometimes higher in samples from fall 1998 compared to spring 2001; here, the near-surface dFe distributions appear to be dominated by time-varying inputs of aerosol iron or advection of iron-rich subtropical waters from the north.  相似文献   

Analysis of threshold and incipient conditions for sediment movement     

A.A. Beheshti  B. Ataie-Ashtiani 《Coastal Engineering》2008

Prediction of threshold conditions and incipient motion is the essential issue for the study of sediment transport. This work compares existing empirical threshold curves proposed for Shields diagram, a method based on the concept of probability of sediment movement, and an empirical method based on movability number. These methods are used to predict the incipient motion conditions for experimental runs taken from various studies. Most of the experimental data, used in this work, have not been used before in derivation of alternative formulations for Shields diagram and other methods. The empirical threshold curves based on the Shields entrainment function was the least successful at predicting the measured incipient motion conditions, while the use of the movability number gives good predictions of critical shear velocity compared with experimental data.  相似文献   

长江口盐度梯度下不同形态碳的分布、来源与混合行为   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

叶君  姚鹏  徐亚宏  王金鹏  赵彬 《海洋学报》2019,41(4):15-26

河口碳的生物地球化学过程是全球碳循环的重要组成。通过测定溶解无机碳（DIC）及其稳定同位素丰度（δ13C_DIC）,溶解有机碳（DOC）,有色溶解有机物（CDOM）,颗粒有机碳（POC）及其稳定同位素丰度（δ13C_POC）与元素比值（N/C）及相关指标,研究了2014年7月长江口盐度梯度下不同形态碳的分布、来源和混合行为。结果表明,DIC浓度、DOC浓度、POC含量分别为1 583.2~1 739.6 μmol/L,128.4~369.4 μmol/L和51.2~530.8 μmol/L,这些不同形态碳及CDOM的荧光组分的分布模式相似,均是从口内到口外,整体呈现先增大后减小的趋势,并与盐度呈现非保守混合行为。添加作用主要发生在在口门处最大浑浊带附近。与含量相反,从口内到口外,δ13C_DIC和δ13C_POC均呈现逐渐减小再增大的趋势,在口门附近达到最低值,分别为-9.7‰和-26.7‰。在口门附近不同形态碳含量上升及δ13C_DIC、δ13C_POC的降低可能主要与沉积物再悬浮及微生物作用有关。基于蒙特卡洛模拟的三端元混合模型的结果显示,河口内外POC来源变化明显,口内POC以陆源有机碳贡献为主,平均为62.3%,口外海源贡献逐渐增加。CDOM相关参数结果表明长江口CDOM主要来自陆源输入,海源及人类活动等也对其产生影响。  相似文献