Small scale turbulent diffusion determined with underwater flow visualization     

Takashi Ichiye  James McGrath  Michael Carnes 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1982,120(4):758-771

Dye plumes were generated at three depths in the seasonal thermocline between 7 and 11 m, 22 km south of Key West on 21 August 1980 and photographed at about 10 second intervals with an underwater camera system. Eleven pairs of consecutive pictures are analyzed to determine the mean current vertical shear and the width of the plumes by positioning reference points relative to the rod attached to the camera system. The relative distances of reference points are calibrated with the stereophotogrammetric method for one pair. The eddy diffusivity is calculated by use of a model of turbulent diffusion developed byTaylor (1921). Its values range from 5 to 25 cm²s^–1 for the plume widths ranging from 33 to 132 cm. The Richardson number is calculated for each pair of pictures with the vertical density gradient estimated from temperature profiles. Its values are higher than the critical value of 0.25 except for one case. The diffusivity was higher by orders of magnitude than the molecular one and indicates the presence of turbulence together with billow like features of the plumes in spite of high Richardson numbers. This suggests that the billow turbulence might be caused by effects of surface gravity waves and not by the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability.  相似文献   

Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Licia Faenza  Sebastian Hainzl  Frank Scherbaum  Céline Beauval 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,171(2):797-806

The time-dependence of earthquake occurrence is mostly ignored in standard seismic hazard assessment even though earthquake clustering is well known. In this work, we attempt to quantify the impact of more realistic dynamics on the seismic hazard estimations. We include the time and space dependences between earthquakes into the hazard analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. Our target region is the Lower Rhine Embayment, a low seismicity area in Germany. Including aftershock sequences by using the epidemic type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, we find that on average the hypothesis of uncorrelated random earthquake activity underestimates the hazard by 5–10 per cent. Furthermore, we show that aftershock activity of past large earthquakes can locally increase the hazard even centuries later. We also analyse the impact of the so-called long-term behaviour, assuming a quasi-periodic occurrence of main events on a major fault in that region. We found that a significant impact on hazard is only expected for the special case of a very regular recurrence of the main shocks.  相似文献   

Reliability analysis of drilled shaft behavior using finite difference method and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Monte Carlo</Emphasis> simulation     

Anil Misra  Lance A. Roberts  Steven M. Levorson 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2007,25(1):65-77

Load displacement analysis of drilled shafts can be accomplished by utilizing the “t-z” method, which models soil resistance along the length and tip of the drilled shaft as a series of springs. For non-linear soil springs, the governing differential equation that describes the soil-structure interaction may be discretized into a set of algebraic equations based upon finite difference methods. This system of algebraic equations may be solved to determine the load–displacement behavior of the drilled shaft when subjected to compression or pullout. By combining the finite difference method with Monte Carlo simulation techniques, a probabilistic load–displacement analysis can be conducted. The probabilistic analysis is advantageous compared to standard factor of safety design because uncertainties with the shaft–soil interface and tip properties can be independently quantified. This paper presents a reliability analysis of drilled shaft behavior by combining the finite difference technique for analyzing non-linear load–displacement behavior with Monte Carlo simulation method. As a result we develop probabilistic relationships for drilled shaft design for both total stress (undrained) and effective stress (drained) parameters. The results are presented in the form of factor of safety or resistance factors suitable for serviceability design of drilled shafts.  相似文献   

Stochastic modelling of soil moisture dynamics in a grassland of Qilian Mountain at point scale   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Liu Hu  Zhao WenZhi  He ZhiBin  Zhang LiJie 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2007,50(12):1844-1856

Stochastic modeling of soil moisture dynamics is crucial to the quantitative understanding of plant responses to water stresses,hydrological control of nutrient cycling processes,water competition among plants,and some other ecological dynamics,and thus has become a hotspot in ecohydrology at present.In this paper,we based on the continuously monitored data of soil moisture during 2002―2005 and daily precipitation date of 1992―2006,and tried to make a probabilistic analysis of soil moisture dynamics at point scale in a grassland of Qilian Mountain by integrating the stochastic model improved by Laio and the Monte Carlo method.The results show that the inter-annual variations for the soil moisture patterns at different depths are very significant,and that the coefficient of variance(CV) of surface soil moisture(20 cm) is almost continually kept at about 0.23 whether in the rich or poor rainy years.Interestingly,it has been found that the maximal CV of soil moisture has not always appeared at the surface layer.Comparison of the analytically derived soil moisture probability density function(PDF) with the statistical distribution of the observed soil moisture data suggests that the stochastic model can reasonably describe and predict the soil moisture dynamics of the grassland in Qilian Mountain at point scale.By extracting the statistical information of the historical precipitation data in 1994―2006,and inputting them into the stochastic model,we analytically derived the long-term soil moisture PDF without considering the inter-annual climate fluctuations,and then numerically derived the one when considering the inter-annual fluctuation effects in combination with a Monte-Carlo procedure.It was found that,though the peak position of the probability density distribution significantly moved towards drought when considering the disturbance forces,and its width was narrowed,accordingly its peak value was increased,no significant bimodality was observed in the soil moisture dynamics under the given intensity of random fluctuation disturbance.  相似文献   

岩体质量分级的风险分析方法   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

章杨松  罗国煜  李晓昭  阎长虹 《工程地质学报》2002,10(3):331-336

提出了基于RMR岩体质量分级系统的岩体质量研究风险分析方法。该方法分析步骤如下 :(1)通过岩芯样品的现场观测和实验室试验获得分类所需的变量 ;(2 )统计分析拟合得出各变量的分布函数及参数 ;(3)运用Monte Carlo模拟方法获得 2万个RMR值 ,并将结果绘成岩体质量描述图 ;(4)利用以上结果作出岩体质量风险分析评价。该方法用于润扬长江公路大桥岩体质量评价研究获得良好效果  相似文献   

三峡工程建成后枯水期运行的气候风险研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

张建敏  吴金栋等 《应用气象学报》2001,12(2):218-225

通过蒙特卡罗试验, 探讨了三峡工程建成后枯水期运行风险的评估方法。以GCM模拟试验结果为未来气候情景, 随机模拟了三峡地区在该气候情景下枯水期月降水量分布; 建立了三峡地区月径流-降水模型和三峡水库调度模型; 初步分析了长江三峡工程建成后在当前气候背景和可能未来气候情景下的运行风险。结果表明, 三峡水库的运行对气候变化反应敏感, 春季和冬季的发电风险有明显改变。  相似文献   

实测天然气扩散系数在地层条件下的校正   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

付广  张云峰  陈昕  薛永超 《地球科学进展》2001,16(4):484-489

在研究天然气在地下岩石中扩散机理及扩散系数测试方法的基础上，指出了实测天然气扩散系数与地层条件下的差异，利用实测饱和水和干样条件下人造石英粉砂岩的扩散系数值的比值与其物性之间的关系，利用爱因斯坦方程产实测天然气扩散系数的饱和介质转换和温度校正方法，该方法的实际应用表明，校正结果符合地质规律，表明该校正方法是可行的。  相似文献   

利用相控模型进行井间参数预测   总被引：18，自引：0，他引：18  

桂峰  马正 《地球科学》2001,26(1):49-53

储层物性参数在空间的展布，一直是储层非均质性研究的难点，利用分形和蒙特卡洛方法，在精细的沉积微相及小层对比研究基础之上，预测了井间的岩石相分布，并根据取心井资料，建立了各种岩石相的渗透率相控模型，从而预测出井间渗透率的分布。该方法以地质特征为基础，将地质资料与数学方法相结合，充分体现了渗透率在井间既具有连续性，同时变化又非常剧烈的特点，为储层物性空间预测提供了新的思路。  相似文献   

Upscaling Uncertain Permeability Using Small Cell Renormalization   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. J. Hastings  A. H. Muggeridge 《Mathematical Geology》2001,33(4):491-505

Sedimentary rocks have structures on all length scales from the millimeter to the kilometer. These structures are generally associated with variations in rock permeability. These need to be modeled if we are to make predictions about fluid flow through the rock. However, existing computers are not powerful enough for us to be able to represent all scales of heterogeneity explicitly in our fluid flow models—hence, we need to upscale. Small cell renormalization is a fast method for upscaling permeability, derived from an analogue circuit of resistors. However, it assumes that the small scale permeability distribution is known. In practice, this is unlikely. The only information available about small scale properties is either qualitative, derived from the depositional setting of the reservoir, or local to the wells as a result of coring or logging. The influence of small scale uncertainty on large scale properties is usually modelled by the Monte Carlo method. This is time-consuming and inaccurate if not enough realisations are used. This paper describes a new implementation of renormalization, which enables the direct upscaling of uncertain small-scale permeabilities to produce the statistical properties of the equivalent coarse grid. This is achieved by using a perturbation expansion of the resistor-derived equation. The method is verified by comparison with numerical simulations using the Monte Carlo method. The prediction of expected large-scale permeability and its standard deviation are shown to be accurate for small cell standard deviations of up to 40% of the mean cell value, using just the first nonzero term of the perturbation expansion. Inclusion of higher order terms allows larger standard deviations to be modeled accurately. Evaluation of cross-terms allows correlations of actual cell values, over and above the background structure of mean cell values. The perturbation method is significantly faster than conventional Monte Carlo simulation. It needs just two calculations whereas the Monte Carlo method needs many thousands of realisations to be generated and renormalized to converge. This results in significant savings in computer time.  相似文献   

High-temperature creep in a Ni2GeO4: a contribution to creep systematics in spinel     

J. D. Lawlis  Y.-H. Zhao  S. Karato 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2001,28(8):557-571

 High-temperature creep behavior in Ni₂GeO₄ spinel was investigated using synthetic polycrystalline aggregates with average grain sizes ranging from submicron to 7.4 microns. Cylindrical samples were deformed at constant load in a gas-medium apparatus at temperatures ranging from 1223 to 1523 K and stresses ranging from 40 to 320 MPa. Two deformation mechanisms were identified, characterized by the following flow laws: where σ is in MPa, d is in μm and T is in Kelvin. These flow laws suggest that deformation was accommodated by dislocation creep and grain-boundary diffusion (Coble) creep, respectively. A comparison with other spinels shows that an isomechanical group can be defined for spinels although some differences between normal and inverse spinels can be identified. When creep data for olivine and spinel are normalized and extrapolated to Earth-like conditions, spinel (ringwoodite) has a strength similar to olivine in the dislocation creep regime and is considerably stronger than olivine in the diffusion creep regime at coarse grain size. However, when grain-size reduction occurs, spinel can become weaker than olivine due to its high grain-size sensitivity (Coble creep behavior). Analysis of normalized diffusion creep data for olivine and spinel indicate that spinel is weaker than olivine at grain sizes less than 2 μm. Received: 18 June 2000 / Accepted: 3 April 2001  相似文献