新疆天山山区干旱灾害综合风险评估与区划     

吴秀兰  张婧莉  余行杰  玛依拉&#  买买提艾力 《气象与环境学报》2022,38(4):161-167

以自然灾害风险四因子理论为基础,综合考虑研究区自然及社会经济情况,建立适合天山山区干旱灾害风险概念框架和指标体系,结合GIS技术进行了该地区干旱灾害风险评估与区划。结果表明：致灾因子危险性较高的区域是伊犁河谷及天山北坡一带,东疆地区和南疆西部危险性较低;承灾体脆弱性较高的区域为伊犁河谷和博州地区,吐鲁番、哈密及克州属于低脆弱区;孕灾环境敏感性较高地区主要分布在天山北坡的精河至吐鲁番一线、阿克苏地区西部、巴州北部等地,伊犁河谷、巴州北部、哈密市北部、南疆西部山区属低敏感区;防灾减灾能力整体表现为中东部高于西部区域;新疆天山山区干旱综合风险整体呈现出中部高、两端低的趋势,即中部的天山南北两侧干旱风险高于南疆西部和东疆地区。构建的评估模型总体反映了研究区旱灾综合风险水平,可为新疆天山草原灾害风险管理、应对气候变化、抗旱减灾行动提供参考。  相似文献   

Identifying future climate change and drought detection using CanESM2 in the upper Siem Reap River,Cambodia     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2021

Cambodia is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts such as floods and droughts. Study of future climate change and drought conditions in the upper Siem Reap River catchment is vital because this river plays a crucial role in maintaining the Angkor Temple Complex and livelihood of the local population since 12th century. The resolution of climate data from Global Circulation Models (GCM) is too coarse to employ effectively at the watershed scale, and therefore downscaling of the dataset is required. Artificial neural network (ANN) and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) models were applied in this study to downscale precipitation and temperatures from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios) from Global Climate Model data of the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) on a daily and monthly basis. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were adopted to develop criteria for dry and wet conditions in the catchment. Trend detection of climate parameters and drought indices were assessed using the Mann-Kendall test. It was observed that the ANN and SDSM models performed well in downscaling monthly precipitation and temperature, as well as daily temperature, but not daily precipitation. Every scenario indicated that there would be significant warming and decreasing precipitation which contribute to mild drought. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision makers since climate change may potentially impact future water supply of the Angkor Temple Complex (a World Heritage Site).  相似文献   

The Modification of Palmer Drought Severity Index in the Research of Drought in Huaihe Area     

《地球科学进展》2012,27(1)

Palmer指数是目前研究区域干旱时应用最广泛的指数之一,但由于其空间适用性比较强,所以在应用已修正的Palmer指数描述淮河流域干旱等级和持续时间时和实际情况有较大差异,因此有必要做进一步订正。利用淮河流域开封、信阳、巢湖站1961—2009年逐日降水和气温等常规观测资料,根据1965年Palmer指数原理,在2004、2006年几次修正的基础上对Palmer指数进行修正。淮河流域和美国Kansas、Iowa周边区域均属亚热带季风气候,但在用Palmer指数研究2个区域的旱涝时,其前期旱涝对后期的影响程度存在一定的差异,在淮河流域前期旱涝的影响要小些,因此,在修正Palmer指数过程中加入一个修正系数,用以改善其敏感度。结果表明,修正后的Palmer指数在反映淮河流域的干旱强度和持续时间等方面都得到了很好的改进,可以用于淮河流域干旱的监测和预警。  相似文献   

Palmer干旱指数在淮河流域的修正及应用   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王文  徐红 《地球科学进展》2012,27(1):60-67

Palmer指数是目前研究区域干旱时应用最广泛的指数之一,但由于其空间适用性比较强,所以在应用已修正的Palmer指数描述淮河流域干旱等级和持续时间时和实际情况有较大差异,因此有必要做进一步订正。利用淮河流域开封、信阳、巢湖站1961—2009年逐日降水和气温等常规观测资料,根据1965年Palmer指数原理,在200...  相似文献   

GEV干旱指数及其在气象干旱预测和监测中的应用和检验   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王澄海  王芝兰  郭毅鹏 《地球科学进展》2012,27(9):957-968

介绍了一种新的基于广义极值分布(Generalized Extreme Value,GEV)的干旱指数的构建过程及其原理。并利用1951—2010年中国地区160个气象台站的逐月降水资料,选择6个代表台站,检验1951—2010年60年间预测的干旱和实际干旱事件发生的吻合程度;利用2009—2010年资料检验GEV指数和实际发生的干旱事件在月尺度上的监测效果。结果表明,利用GEV方法定义的干旱指数能较好地监测干旱事件的发生和发展,与目前广泛使用的Ci指数监测结果较为一致。同时这种指数也能用于某一地区干旱事件的预测和干旱等级的划分。对干旱业务监测和预测有重要的参考意义。但该指数对站点疏密有一定的依赖性,站点稀疏的区域存在着一些误差。  相似文献   

Monitoring global land surface drought based on a hybrid evapotranspiration model     

Yunjun Yao  Shunlin Liang  Qiming Qin  Kaicun Wang  Shaohua Zhao 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2011

The latent heat of evapotranspiration (ET) plays an important role in the assessment of drought severity as one sensitive indicator of land drought status. A simple and accurate method of estimating global ET for the monitoring of global land surface droughts from remote sensing data is essential. The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid ET model by introducing empirical coefficients based on a simple linear two-source land ET model, and to then use this model to calculate the Evaporative Drought Index (EDI) based on the actual estimated ET and the potential ET in order to characterize global surface drought conditions. This is done using the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) products, AVHRR-NDVI products from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) group, and National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis-2 (NCEP-2) datasets. We randomly divided 22 flux towers into two groups and performed a series of cross-validations using ground measurements collected from the corresponding flux towers. The validation results from the second group of flux towers using the data from the first group for calibration show that the daily bias varies from −6.72 W/m² to 12.95 W/m² and the average monthly bias is −1.73 W/m². Similarly, the validation results of the first group of flux towers using data from second group for calibration show that the daily bias varies from −12.91 W/m² to 10.26 W/m² and the average monthly bias is −3.59 W/m². To evaluate the reliability of the hybrid ET model on a global scale, we compared the estimated ET from the GEWEX, AVHRR-GIMMS-NDVI, and NECP-2 datasets with the latent heat flux from the Global Soil Wetness Project-2 (GSWP-2) datasets. We found both of them to be in good agreement, which further supports the validity of our model's global ET estimation. Significantly, the patterns of monthly EDI anomalies have a good spatial and temporal correlation with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) anomalies from January 1984 to December 2002, which indicates that the method can be used to accurately monitor long-term global land surface drought.  相似文献   

A Comparative Analysis of Primary and Extreme Characteristics of Dry or Wet Status between Asia and North America   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

HUA Lijuan  MA Zhuguo  ZHONG Linhao 《大气科学进展》2011,28(2):352-362

In this study, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was used to analyze the average and extreme dry/wet states of Asia and North America from 1953 to 2003. The results indicate that the two continents underwent drying trends during this period. Compared with North America, Asia showed more severe drought trends. However, more significant and regular seasonal variation for drought was found in North America. The driest regions in Asia were located in the northern region of China, Mongolia, and eastern mid-Siberian plateau. Most regions in central North America were relatively wetter than other regions. The northern and southwestern regions of North America, as well as the Atlantic and Pacific coastal areas, experienced the most drought during this period. A sharp increase of the drought area and the number of extreme drought events took place from 1997 to 2003 in both Asia and North America. Severe drought events were more likely to occur during the summer on both continents. Asia had the most extreme drought events during July, but North America reached its highest drought frequency from June to September. In Asia, a persistent increasing trend of extreme drought emerged throughout the studied period. However, a more complex evolution of drought emerged in North America: a decreasing trend appeared before the mid-1960s and an increasing trend appeared after the late 1970s. A relatively steady dry/wet status was observed between the mid-1960s and the late 1970s. The role of exceptional, extreme drought events with respect to the La Nin?a event was considered during 1997–2003.  相似文献   

Is irrigated agriculture in the Murray Darling Basin well prepared to deal with reductions in water availability?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yongping WeiJohn Langford  Ian R. WillettSnow Barlow  Clive Lyle 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(3):906-916

The “Big Dry”, a prolonged dry period in Australia from 1997 to 2009, dried out much of the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) and resulted in large agricultural losses and degraded river ecosystems. Climate projections are that dry conditions in the MDB are likely to be more regular and severe than ever before, and recent policy initiatives are likely to reduce consumptive water use and redirect water to ecosystem management. This paper aims to develop an understanding of the interactions between water policy and irrigation practices by deriving lessons from drought management in irrigated agriculture of the MDB during the Big Dry, and furthermore, to draw out lessons to enhance the preparedness of irrigated agriculture for a future drier climate and reduced water availability. Reviews of irrigation farmers’ practices, attitudes and capacity to manage during prolonged droughts in the MDB, and the evolution of agricultural water policy in Australia since 1990 were made. It is clear that farmers could be better prepared to deal with a drier climate if their water management practices, e.g. irrigation methods and soil moisture measuring tools are improved, if the impediments to the uncertainty of water allocation and low water availability could be overcome, and if well-targeted research and extension could assist farmers to use water more wisely. It is also clear that Australian water policy could be better prepared in terms of assisting irrigated agriculture to deal with a drier climate. Key areas are reduction of barriers and distortions to water trading, optimizing the environmental water allocation, and seeking mutual benefits between environmental water allocation and irrigated agriculture, improvement of the cost-effectiveness of investments in water supply infrastructure, facilitating carryover and capacity sharing at larger scales, and provision of accurate, accessible and useful water information at different scales. An approach to irrigation practice and water policy is proposed based on past experience and potential opportunities. The approach is a set of linked strategies for more robust agricultural production and a more sustainable environment under a drier climate and reduced water availability.  相似文献   

1951—2009年中国地表湿润状况变化趋势研究   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王文  王劲廷 《气象与环境学报》2011,27(5):1-6

利用1951—2009年中国160站的月降水和月平均温度资料,通过计算地表湿润指数,在分析其与降水及气温联系的基础上,探讨了中国区域平均地表湿润指数的年代际变化特征差异,给出了地表湿润指数年趋势的地理分布。结果表明：1951—2009年,中国北方的西北地区东部、华北和东北地区长江中下游地区及东南部分地区以干旱化趋势为主...  相似文献   

遵义市2009/2010年秋冬春连旱事实及形成原因初析     

姚正兰  王君军 《地球科学进展》2011,26(10):1109-1115

2009年秋季到2010年初春,遵义市出现了特大干旱,对农业、林业、人畜饮水、水利电力等方面造成严重的危害和巨大的损失。详细分析干旱期间的气象要素,从秋季9月到初春3月的总降水量不足常年同期平均值的一半,并与历史上的秋冬干旱年份进行了比较,发现本次干旱期间遵义市大部分地方降水量等多项气象要素突破历史最少记录,因此认为2...  相似文献