Intercomparison of the total storage deficit index (TSDI) over two Canadian Prairie catchments   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

C.O. Agboma  S.Z. Yirdaw  K.R. Snelgrove 《Journal of Hydrology》2009,374(3-4):351-359

Retrieval of the terrestrial moisture storage dataset from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite remote sensing system is possible when the catchment of interest is of large spatial scale. These dataset are of paramount importance for the estimation of the total storage deficit index (TSDI), which enables the characterization of a particular drought event from the perspective of the terrestrial moisture storage over that catchment. Incidentally, the GRACE gravity signal over the 13,000 km² Upper Assiniboine River Basin on the drought-prone Canadian Prairie is so poor therefore making the computation of the total storage deficit index for this basin infeasible. Consequently, the estimation of the terrestrial moisture storage from other reliable sources becomes imperative in order to enable the computation of the TSDI over this basin.This study explores the utilization of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, a physically based, spatially distributed hydrologic model to simulate the total moisture storage over the Upper Assiniboine River Basin which was then employed in the estimation of the TSDI over this basin for subsequent characterization of the recent Prairie-wide drought. Interestingly, the temporal patterns in the computed TSDI from the VIC model reveal a strong resemblance with the same drought characterization undertaken over the larger adjacent Saskatchewan River Basin, which was accomplished utilizing terrestrial moisture storage from the GRACE-based approach. Additionally, these independent techniques employed in the characterization of the last Prairie drought over the two adjacently situated basins resulted in similar drought severity classification from the standpoint of the total moisture storage deficits over these basins. This study has therefore shown that in the computation of the total storage deficit index over small-scale catchments during anomalous climatic conditions that propagate extreme dryness through the terrestrial hydrologic systems, simulations of the total water storage from a structurally sound model such as the VIC model could be resourceful for the computation of the monthly total storage deficit index if no constraint is placed on the availability of accurate meteorological forcing.  相似文献   

Risk-based drought early warning system in reservoir operation     

Wen-Cheng Huang  Chia-Ching Chou 《Advances in water resources》2008

This paper introduces a risk-based decision process integrated into a drought early warning system (DEWS) for reservoir operation. It is to support policy making under uncertainty for drought management. Aspects of posterior risk, chances of option occurrences and the corresponding options to given chances, are provided to help decision makers to make better decisions. A new risk index is also defined to characterize decision makers’ attitudes toward risk. Decision makers can understand the inclination of attitude associated with any specific probability through accuracy assessment, and learn to adjust their attitudes in decision-making process. As a pioneering experiment, the Shihmen reservoir in northern Taiwan was tested. Over the simulation period (1964–2005), the expected overall accuracy approximated to 77%. The results show that the proposed approach is very practical and should find good use for reservoir operations.  相似文献   

A bivariate pareto model for drought   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Saralees Nadarajah 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(6):811-822

Univariate Pareto distributions have been so widely used in hydrology. It seems however that bivariate or multivariate Pareto distributions have not yet found applications in hydrology, especially with respect to drought. In this note, a drought application is described by assuming a bivariate Pareto model for the joint distribution drought durations and drought severity in the State of Nebraska. Based on this model, exact distributions are derived for the inter arrival time, magnitude and the proportion of droughts. Estimates of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 year return periods are derived for the three variables, drought duration, drought severity and the pairwise combinations: (drought duration, drought severity), (inter arrival time of drought, proportion of drought) and (drought duration, drought magnitude). These return period estimates could have an important role in hydrology, for example, with respect to measures of vegetation water stress for plants in water-controlled ecosystems.  相似文献   

Late Holocene dune activity in the Eastern Platte River Valley, Nebraska     

P.R. Hanson  R.M. Joeckel  A.R. Young  J. Horn 《Geomorphology》2009,103(4):555-561

Large-scale dune activity in the Nebraska Sand Hills and elsewhere on the western Great Plains has been linked to prehistoric “megadroughts” that triggered the activation of regional dune fields. The effect of megadroughts on the smaller dune fields east of the Nebraska Sand Hills has never been assessed, however. This study focuses on the Duncan dune field near the confluence of the Loup and Platte rivers in eastern Nebraska. Seventeen optically stimulated luminescence age estimates were obtained and reveal two periods of dune activation that occurred between 4.4 to 3.4 ka and 0.8 to 0.5 ka. Significantly, both periods chronologically overlap large-scale dune activity identified in the Nebraska Sand Hills. Geochemical evidence indicates that the Duncan dunes received sand not only from the terrace underlying them, but also from the Loup River. These data link dune activity in the Duncan area, at least indirectly, to increased sediment supply from streams that drain the Sand Hills during megadroughts, implying the activation of the dunes occurred as an indirect response to regional megadroughts. Calculations of dune migration rates, however, argue in favor of local, drought-driven hydrologic changes as a causative factor in dune activation, in other words, a direct effect of megadroughts. Whether the impact was direct or indirect, it is highly likely that the repeated reactivation of the Duncan dunes resulted in some way from regional, large-magnitude droughts. Other paleoclimate proxies from the Great Plains tend to support this conclusion. We conclude that the megadroughts that have been identified in the Sand Hills and other Great Plains dune fields were indeed regional events with far-reaching effects.  相似文献   

登陆台风与我国降水的统计关系   总被引：17，自引：7，他引：10  

卓嘎  谢金南  马镜娴 《高原气象》2000,19(2):260-264

利用1951～1994年全国范围内160个站历年逐月降水量资料及台风活动资料,分析了台风活动与我国降水的统计关系.结果表明:台风活动与青藏高原东侧年降水量之间的联系相对而言最为显著.  相似文献   

江苏省小麦播种期的干旱研究及应用     

张旭晖  黄毓华 《气象科学》1999,(3)

本文确定了以降水量和蒸散量为参数的干旱指数计算方法,以小麦适宜播种期及前后各一句的时间范围内综合考虑各旬干旱指数,确定干旱指标,并讨论了江苏省小麦播种期干旱的发生规律。  相似文献   

Development of an operational low-flow index for hydrological drought monitoring over Europe   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Carmelo Cammalleri  Jürgen Vogt  Peter Salamon 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(3):346-358

Near real-time monitoring of hydrological drought requires the implementation of an index capable of capturing the dynamic nature of the phenomenon. Starting from a dataset of modelled daily streamflow data, a low-flow index was developed based on the total water deficit of the discharge values below a certain threshold. In order to account for a range of hydrological regimes, a daily 95th percentile threshold was adopted, which was computed by means of a 31-day moving window. The observed historical total water deficits were statistically fitted by means of the exponential distribution and the corresponding probability values were used as a measure of hydrological drought severity. This approach has the advantage that it directly exploits daily streamflow values, as well as allowing a near real-time update of the index at regular time steps (i.e. 10 days, or dekad). The proposed approach was implemented on discharge data simulated by the LISFLOOD model over Europe during the period 1995–2015; its reliability was tested on four case studies found within the European drought reference database, as well as against the most recent summer drought observed in Central Europe in 2015. These validations, even if only qualitative, highlighted the ability of the index to capture the timing (starting date and duration) of the main historical hydrological drought events, and its good performance in comparison with the commonly used standardized runoff index (SRI). Additionally, the spatial evolution of the most recent event was captured well in a simulated near real-time test case, suggesting the suitability of the index for operational implementation within the European Drought Observatory.  相似文献   

西南区域持续性干旱事件的行星尺度和天气尺度扰动信号   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

钱维宏  张宗婕 《地球物理学报》2012,55(5):1462-1471

以2009-2010年发生在中国西南地区的持续性干旱事件为例,通过干旱和大气变量的物理分解得到了一些干旱事件发生的新认识.气象干旱多为年循环的气候干季与干旱扰动的叠加所致.一次干旱扰动大约为30-50天,而一次持续性干旱事件是由几次干旱扰动组成的.大气高度场和风场中存在三种时间尺度的扰动.一种是年际行星尺度的大气扰动,与ENSO冷暖事件有关,起源于赤道并传播到中高纬度地区需要2-4年.另一种是季节内行星尺度的大气扰动,与来自赤道地区的30-50天振荡有关.此外,大气中还存在天气尺度的扰动.利用行星尺度大气扰动向赤道外传播与天气尺度扰动的叠加,区域持续性干旱事件能够找到前期预报信号.  相似文献   

近50年中国冬季大地冷涡与春夏季干旱相关的统计   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

汤懋苍  张拥军  李栋梁 《气象学报》2005,63(6):1006-1009

通过对冬季大地冷涡与春夏季干旱的相关分析,发现:除高原主体外,冬季的大地冷涡对应着春夏季为干旱少雨区;而且大地冷涡东面的地冷涡绝大多数也是春夏季的干旱少雨区。冬季大地冷涡在中国的出现频率为80%,可作为短期气候预测的重要因子。  相似文献   

中国东部夏季主要降水型的年代际变化及趋势分析   总被引：23，自引：2，他引：21  

顾薇  李崇银  杨辉 《气象学报》2005,63(5):728-739

针对中国东部夏季降水存在着20世纪50和60年代为“南旱北涝”、80和90年代为“南涝北旱”的相反形势,该文应用小波分析等方法对华北和长江中下游地区近54 a来的夏季降水进行分析,发现二者都具有不同周期的年代际变化。对于周期小于24 a的年代际变化,其morlet小波分析表明两地夏季降水的位相关系并不是固定的。对于更长的时间尺度,用正交小波分析了周期大于28 a的年代际变化,这种长周期的年代际变化能较好地体现出“南旱北涝”和“南涝北旱”两种形势,说明两地降水还存在着更长时间尺度的准周期变化。对于两地降水的这种长周期变化,分别选用不同位相的17 a为代表进行海温、环流形势的合成分析,对比发现两阶段所对应的海温、环流形势具有极明显的差异。最后,用近期的海温、环流形势与上述两种位相的海温、环流形势进行对比,讨论了未来降水型的可能演变趋势。  相似文献