内蒙古乡镇精细化预报模型及业务试验   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

姜学恭  孙鑫  胡英华  金迎春 《内蒙古气象》2009,(1):8-11

文章利用县级台站天气实况插值生成乡镇天气实况资料库进而建立乡镇MOS预报方程的处理方法,建立了内蒙古1242个乡镇及一般风景点24小时天气要素精细化客观预报模型,并建成了业务化系统进行了业务试验运行。预报效果检验表明,这一方法是一种可行的精细化预报研制技术,其预报效果明显好于中央台精细预报指导产品,个别要素甚至略好于人工订正产品,完全可以应用于业务工作中。  相似文献   

Bed material texture in low order streams on the Queen Charlotte Islands,British Columbia     

Stephen Rice  Michael Church 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1996,21(1):1-18

Low order channels comprise a large proportion of the links of every drainage basin, and are often at the centre of land management concerns. They exhibit hydrological and geomorphological characteristics atypical of higher order links. This paper examines the nature and causes of variations in the bed material texture of two streams on the Queen Charlotte Islands, British Columbia. The extant, functional exponential model is found to be inadequate for explaining observed changes in grain size parameters with distance downstream. Recurrent disruption of sediment transport by large organic debris jams, and the sporadic contamination of the fluvial sediment population by colluvial inputs, preclude the development of longitudinal structure. Rather, grain size varies erratically over short distances. A stochastic model best describes the observed variations, and should be adopted as an alternative to the exponential model in low order links. Characteristic variances are controlled by the degree of hillslope-channel coupling, and the extent and characteristics of non-alluvial storage mechanisms.  相似文献   

DYNAMIC CROSS-INTERACTION BETWEEN FLEXIBLE SURFACE FOOTINGS BY COMBINED BEM AND FEM     

J. QIAN  L. G. THAM  Y. K. CHEUNG 《地震工程与结构动力学》1996,25(5):509-526

A combined boundary and finite element method is developed and applied to study the dynamic behaviour of a system of flexible surface footings of arbitrary shape bearing on an elastic half-space. The proposed method employs the frequency domain Green's function for the surface of the elastic half-space while a layered plate model is used for the flexible footing. Both the footing and the surface of the half-space are discretized by 8-noded quadratical isoparametric elements, and the meshes are identical. Thus, the compatibility of displacements and equilibrium of forces between the footing and the half-space are fully satisfied. This model provides a better approximation of the stress concentration at edges of relatively rigid footings. Numerical examples demonstrating the effects due to the excitation frequency, the relative rigidity and the distance between footings on the interaction between two square footings are presented. The external forces can be either harmonic or transient.  相似文献   

PARAMETER AND VARIANCE ESTIMATION IN GEOTECHNICAL BACKANALYSIS USING PRIOR INFORMATION     

A. LEDESMA  A. GENS  E. E. ALONSO 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》1996,20(2):119-141

A probabilistic framework to perform inverse analysis of geotechnical problems is presented. The formulation allows the incorporation of existing prior information on the parameters in a consistent way. The method is based on the maximum likelihood approach that allows a straightforward introduction of the error structure of field measurements and prior information. The difficulty of ascribing definite values to the uncertainties associated with the various types of observations is overcome by including the corresponding variances in the set of parameters to be identified. The inverse analysis results in a minimization problem that is solved by coupling the optimization technique to the finite element method. Two examples are presented to illustrate the performance of the method. The first one corresponds to a synthetic case simulating the excavation of a tunnel. Young's modulus, K₀ value and measurements variances are identified. The second case concerns the excavation of a large underground cavern in which again Young's modulus and K₀ are identified. It is shown that introduction of prior information permits the estimation of parameters more consistent with all available informations that include not only monitored displacements but also results from in situ tests carried out during the site investigation stage.  相似文献   

FINITE ELEMENT MODELLING FOR LAND DISPLACEMENTS DUE TO PUMPING     

H.-D. YEH  R.-H. LU  G.-T. YEH 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》1996,20(2):79-99

Equations of equilibrium (force balance) and flow in multidimensions were coupled in this paper to describe land displacements due to pressure decline in aquifers. A Galerkin finite element model based on these equations was developed. The saturated/unsaturated behaviour and the isotropic/anisotropic properties of permeability and elasticity were considered when the model was formulated. This model was verified by comparing its simulation results with those of known analytical solutions for simplified cases. The simulation of displacements due to pressure decline in unsaturated media was also performed. Those results demonstrated that the choice of boundary ranges for an aquifer with infinite domain may significantly affect the estimated horizontal and vertical displacements. To obtain a good estimation of land displacements, the boundary ranges should be carefully chosen. The displacements occurring in unconfined aquifers are caused by the drop of the water table and the change in body force in the dewatering zone. Simulation results also indicated that the change in body force should be considered once an unconfined aquifer has been pumped. Otherwise, the horizontal and vertical displacements in unconfined aquifers would be overestimated and underestimated, respectively. The behaviour of land displacements due to pumping was shown to be affected by changes in the total stresses in aquifers.  相似文献   

THE ‘NEW IMPLICIT METHOD’ FOR TUNNEL ANALYSIS     

D. BERNAUD  G. ROUSSET 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》1996,20(9):673-690

Tunnel excavation is a coupled three-dimensional problem dealing with two different structures: lining and rockmass. For a simple application it is useful to develop simplified methods by treating the problem as plane strain. If the problem of tunnel face advance presents an axisymmetric geometry, then we show that the major parameter governing the ground–interface–lining interaction is the convergence of the tunnel U₀ at the moment of the lining installation. The ‘New Implicit Method’ (NIM) presented in this paper makes use of principles similar to those of the ‘convergence–confinement’ method, but it provides a better appreciation of the coupled behaviour of rockmass and lining. For independent time constitutive laws (elasticity and plasticity), we point out that the convergence U₀ depends not only on the mechanical behaviour of the rockmass and on the distance from the tunnel face, as predicted by the ‘convergence–confinement’ method, but also on the stiffness of the lining previously set. We present the ‘NIM’ for elastic and perfect elastoplastic rockmasses without dilatancy for many criteria. The development of this new method is based on the results of tunnel calculations with an axisymmetric FEM numerical model that takes into account the three-dimensional aspect of the problem. Using this method is simple and its results agree well with the FEM numerical results. Its accuracy is highly satisfactory for a geotechnical study.  相似文献   

江汉叠合盆地及邻区中生代以来盆山耦合数值模拟研究   总被引：9，自引：9，他引：0  

徐政语  姚根顺  林舸  郭庆新 《大地构造与成矿学》2006,30(3):305-311

江汉叠合盆地位于扬子地台中部,夹持于秦岭-大别及江南造山带中段之间。中生代以来,先后经历了北部陆陆碰撞、南部陆内挤压造山与断陷、裂陷成盆的演化历程,区域构造体制在中生代发生了重大转换,其中复合、联合了众多的地质现象;盆地历经的海盆、煤盆、盐盆、陆相广盆四个盆地世代详细记录有中国南北大陆联合及东北亚大陆构造体制转换的运动学过程,是认识欧亚大陆东部深层动力地质作用过程的关键地区之一。盆地沉积充填过程可简要概括为前陆、裂陷、坳陷三种基本样式。系统的盆山构造样式及运动学分析结果表明:叠合盆地前陆期发育于同碰撞-造山后作用阶段早期,断、坳陷期发育于造山后作用阶段晚期-非造山裂解阶段。本文运用大陆动力学数值模拟(FLAC软件)方法,从挤压和伸展两方面效验了山-盆演化分别受控于印支-早燕山期的华南与华北陆块的旋转碰撞造山,以及随后的晚燕山-喜山早期碰后陆内俯冲作用所产生的板片断离引起的地幔物质上升与对流作用,晚喜山期太平洋板块俯冲作用以及由此产生的地幔调整等三期动力学系统。为南方中小型叠合盆地动力学解析提供了一种新的思路与研究方法。  相似文献   

New instrument for measuring water discharge by the salt dilution method     

Christian Bronge  Alan Openshaw 《水文研究》1996,10(3):463-470

The instantaneous salt dilution method for water discharge measurements in open channels has been improved by the development of a new instrument measuring conductivity. The salt method consists of two parts: the calibration and the actual measurement in the stream. The calibration aims to calculate the linear relationship between electrical conductivity and salt concentration at various degrees of dilution in a salt solution. The original undiluted solution is injected into the water of a stream and the conductivity is measured downstream from the injection site. When measuring, the new instrument integrates the conductivity over time. From the value obtained on the instrument's display, the water discharge can easily be calculated on a hand-PC in the field. The instrument has eliminated the subsequent calculation work formerly necessary. It has increased the accuracy of the method and also reduced the need for field personnel during measurements.  相似文献   

超声回弹综合法检测单一构件混凝土强度推定值的保证率分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

周启国  张亦飞  韩勤  曹玉泉 《海洋学研究》2006,24(1):97-102

在实际工程检测数据的基础上,利用M on te C arlo试验对单一构件混凝土强度推定值的保证率问题进行了分析。30片梁板实测数据分析结果表明:将构件各测区混凝土强度换算值的最小值作为该构件的混凝土强度推定值的保证率范围为79.0%~94.2%,小于《超声回弹综合法检测混凝土强度技术规程》(CECS 02:88)规定的95%保证率要求,因此,对结构性能鉴定而言该混凝土强度推定值是偏于不安全的,应引起试验检测人员的充分重视。  相似文献   

GPS地壳形变监测网应变解算方法与程序设计   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5  

孟国杰  申旭辉  伍吉仓  沈云中  张秋文 《大地测量与地球动力学》2006,26(2):70-74

分析了在平面直角坐标系和大地坐标系内解算应变的方法及其特点,并以Matlab为开发平台,研制出一套在平面直角坐标系和大地坐标系中解算应变的程序GPSstrain。利用GPS监测网测站位移(速率),该程序能够解算剪切应变(γ1、γ2)、面应变、块体旋转、主应变及其方向、最大剪切应变及其方向,同时也可解算出这些应变分量的误差。另外该程序还具有高斯投影解算功能,根据各测站坐标能够自动形成所有的Delaunay三角形,并以图形方式显示。最后以实际算例给出了该解算程序的部分结果,并进行了初步的分析和讨论。  相似文献