A multi-method approach to study the stability of natural slopes and landslide susceptibility mapping   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

M. Fall  R. Azzam  C. Noubactep 《Engineering Geology》2006,82(4):241-263

In this paper, a multi-method approach for the assessment of the stability of natural slopes and landslide hazard mapping applied to the Dakar coastal region is presented. This approach is based on the effective combination of geotechnical field and laboratory works, of GIS, and of mechanical (deterministic and numerical) stability analysis. By using this approach, valuable results were gained regarding instability factors, landslide kinematics, simulation of slope failure and coastal erosion. This led to a thorough assessment and strong reduction in the subjectivity of the slope stability and hazard assessment and to the development of an objective landslide danger map of the SW coast of Dakar. Analysis of the results shows that the slides were influenced by the geotechnical properties of the soil, the weathering, the hydrogeological situation, and the erosion by waves. The landslide susceptibility assessment based on this methodological approach has allowed for an appropriate and adequate consideration of the multiple factors affecting the stability and the optimization of planning and investment for land development in the city.  相似文献   

Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98     

Jochen Schwarz  Mathias Raschke  Holger Maiwald 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):259-282

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.  相似文献   

Computation of Large Anisotropic Seismic Heterogeneities (CLASH)     

Éric Beucler  Jean-Paul Montagner 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,165(2):447-468

A general tomographic technique is designed in order (i) to operate in anisotropic media; (ii) to account for the uneven seismic sampling and (iii) to handle massive data sets in a reasonable computing time. One modus operandi to compute a 3-D body wave velocity model relies on surface wave phase velocity measurements. An intermediate step, shared by other approaches, consists in translating, for each period of a given mode branch, the phase velocities integrated along ray paths into local velocity perturbations. To this end, we develop a method, which accounts for the azimuthal anisotropy in its comprehensive form. The weakly non-linear forward problem allows to use a conjugate gradient optimization. The Earth's surface is regularly discretized and the partial derivatives are assigned to the individual grid points. Possible lack of lateral resolution, due to the inescapable uneven ray path coverage, is taken into account through the a priori covariances on parameters with laterally variable correlation lengths. This method allows to efficiently separate the 2ψ and the 4ψ anisotropic effects from the isotropic perturbations. Fundamental mode and overtone phase velocity maps, derived with real Rayleigh wave data sets, are presented and compared with previous maps. The isotropic models concur well with the results of Trampert & Woodhouse. Large 4ψ heterogeneities are located in the tectonically active regions and over the continental lithospheres such as North America, Antarctica or Australia. At various periods, a significant 4ψ signature is correlated with the Hawaii hotspot track. Finally, concurring with the conclusions of Trampert & Woodhouse, our phase velocity maps show that Rayleigh wave data sets do need both 2ψ and 4ψ anisotropic terms.  相似文献   

基于DMN的高光谱图像分割方法研究     

曹建农  关泽群  李德仁 《遥感学报》2005,9(5):596-603

简述高光谱遥感光谱特征体系(包括光谱曲线特征、光谱变换特征和光谱度量特征3个层面)。研究马尔科夫网的概念和方法,生成基于光谱角(SA)特征度量的DMN,并以DMN为证据对高光谱图像进行分割;研究和实验表明基于SA信息的马尔科夫网可以很好地综合高光谱数据空间特征与光谱特征间的关系,为进一步数据处理提供优化控制(其实质是概率神经网络)。最后提出未来应用和研究方向。  相似文献   

用翁氏模型图版设计早期油气田(藏)开发方案     

龚久和  冯文光 《矿物岩石》2002,22(4):75-77

由于缺乏早期资料，设计早期油气田（藏）开发方案是非常困难的。在制作翁氏模型的Qctm/No-ER图版和ER-ctR图版过程提出根据探明储量No、经济极限产量Qc、假定达到峰值产量的时间tm、最终采收率ER，由翁氏模型的Qctm/No-ER图版求取增长指数b，由翁氏模型ER-ctR图版求取ctR，再求出其他参数及所有的油气田（藏）开发指标，完成早期油气田（藏）开发方案设计。  相似文献   

Cenozoic tectonic events at the border of the Paraná Basin, São Paulo, Brazil     

A. J. Fernandes  G. Amaral  in memorian   《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2002,14(8)

In the last decade, even in areas that had been considered tectonically stable, a great amount of Cenozoic, including the Quaternary period, structural data have been collected throughout Brazil. The main goal of this study is to describe the Cenozoic structures and tectonic evolution of an area that is located at the border of the Paraná Basin in the state of São Paulo.The research methods consisted of the analysis of: (1) brittle structure data, mainly conjugate fractures and fault slip data; (2) lineaments traced on air photos and TM Landsat and radar images; and (3) a second-order base surface map.The study area, during the Cenozoic, has been affected by five strike–slip tectonic events, which generated mainly strike–slip faults, and secondarily normal and reverse ones. The events were named, from the oldest to the youngest, E1-NE, E2-EW, E3-NW, E4-NS, and E5-NNE; and the maximum principal stresses σ1 strike approximately NE–SW, E–W, NW–SE, N–S, and NNE–SSW, respectively. Event E2-EW seems to have been contemporaneous with the deposition of the Rio Claro Formation, the most important Cenozoic deposit of probable Neogenic age, and also to have controlled the distribution of its deposits. Event E3-NW was the strongest one in the area, as is pointed out by structural data, and the maximum principal stress σ1 of event E5-NNE is partially concordant with the orientation of σH-max of well break-out data in the Paraná Basin, suggesting a Neotectonic activity for this event. Finally, discontinuities parallel and correlated to the directions of strike–slip faults of the Cenozoic events seem to have actively controlled the sculpturing of the relief in the study area.  相似文献   

Probability Density Functions as Botanical-Climatological Transfer Functions for Climate Reconstruction     

Norbert Kühl  Christoph Gebhardt  Thomas Litt  Andreas Hense 《Quaternary Research》2002,58(3):381

We present a new procedure, the pdf method (pdf=probability density function), for reconstructing Quaternary climate utilizing botanical data. The procedure includes the advantages of the indicator species method by considering the fossil and modern presence and absence of taxa rather than their frequencies, thus avoiding the need for modern analog plant communities. Overcoming the problematic use of absolute limits to describe climate response ranges is the main progress of the pdf method in comparison to the indicator species method. This advantage results from estimating probability density functions (pdfs) for monthly mean January and July temperature conditional on the present day occurrence of single taxa. Gaussian distributions sufficiently approximate pdfs of many, although not all, studied taxa. On the assumption of statistical independence, the procedure calculates a joint pdf as the product of the pdfs of the individual taxa. This algorithm weights each taxon according to the extent of its climate response range expressed by its covariance structure. We interpret the maximum of the resulting pdf as the most likely climate and its confidence interval as the uncertainty range. To avoid an artificial reduction of uncertainty arising from the use of numerous similar pdfs, a preselection method is proposed based on the Mahalanobis distance between pdfs. The pdf method was applied to the Carpinus phase of a profile from Gröbern, Germany, that spans the last interglaciation (Eemian). The reconstructed most probable January and July temperatures of about 0.0°C and 18.4°C barely differ from the modern values of −0.5°C and 18.3°C.  相似文献   

山西夏县台热水井水氡异常特征与地震的关系初探     

范玉俊  黄春玲 《山西地震》2002,(4):24-27

为弄清山西夏县中心地震台水氡震前异常的原因 ,对山西夏县中心地震台热水井水氡 1984年以来的观测资料用概率论的数据处理方法进行了处理 ,以负异常的发震原理进行了分析 ,结果表明震前负异常的发震概率为 70 %。  相似文献   

辽宁城市活断层探测思路与方法探讨     

高常波  吴小兵  万波  钟以章 《东北地震研究》2002,18(4):1-6

介绍了开展地震活断层探测的意义及在辽宁省开展地震活断层探测的必要性，对在辽宁城市开展活断层探测的基本思路和方法进行了探讨，选取沈阳，抚顺作为试点城市，设定目标区和目标断裂，分别对活断层危险性，危害性和深部发震构造环境进行评价。在断裂探测过程中，确定初步探测和详细探测两个阶段，主要采用人工地震方法并结合钻探，地震划分结果，对目标区内的目标断裂进行评价。  相似文献   

城市震害高危害小区的研究和GIS的实现技术   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3  

帅向华  成小平  袁一凡 《地震》2002,22(3):113-119

论述了在城市地震灾害中如何考虑诸方面因素来评价城市的灾害轻重分布情况。中建立坑危害小区分析模型，设想将城市划分等面积网格，给每个单元网格赋予灾害指数，以确定城市中受灾较为严重的区域，为求灾指挥提供决策信息。同时，将高危害小区的模型研究结果转化为计算机技术可以实现的GIS模型。该研究结果已应用于泰安市防震减灾示范研究项目中。  相似文献