概率密度分布法在“一带一路”地区极端月气温评估和预估中的应用     

齐亚杰  严中伟  钱诚 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(2):151-161

“一带一路”地区人口众多,气候类型复杂,亟待加强区域气候变化风险的认识。文中将该区分成10个区域,基于第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中的31个全球模式模拟结果,应用概率密度分布（PDF）方法评估历史阶段（1986—2005年）各模式模拟暖月和冷月气温的能力,挑选并建立较优模式集合,用以预估21世纪中叶（2041—2060年）和21世纪末（2081—2100年）的极端月气温。结果表明,模式对观测中冷月气温距平PDF的模拟水平整体较暖月高。与多模式平均以及中位值相比,较优模式集合方法更适于极端暖/冷月气温的评估。在中等排放RCP4.5情景下,与低纬度地区相比,较优模式模拟中高纬地区未来极端暖/冷月气温的增温幅度的不确定性范围较大。21世纪中叶和21世纪末较优模式模拟的极端暖月气温在地中海增幅整体最大,东南亚增幅整体最小。对较优模式集合预估的极端冷月气温而言,无论是21世纪中叶还是世纪末,北欧增幅整体最大,东南亚增幅整体最小。  相似文献   

The Digital Belt and Road program in support of regional sustainability     

Huadong Guo  Yubao Qiu  Massimo Menenti  Fang Chen  Paul F. Uhlir 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2018,11(7):657-669

The Belt and Road initiative has a significant focus on infrastructure, trade, and economic development across a vast region, and it also provides significant opportunities for sustainable development. The combined pressure of climate variability, intensified use of resources, and the fragility of ecosystems make it very challenging, however, to achieve future sustainability. To develop the path in a sustainable way, it is important to have a comprehensive understanding of these issues across nations and evaluate them in a scientific and well-informed approach. In this context, the Digital Belt and Road (DBAR) program was initiated as an international venture to share expertise, knowledge, technologies, and data to demonstrate the role of Earth observation science and technology and big Earth data applications to support large-scale development. In this paper, we identify pressing challenges, present the research priorities and foci of the DBAR program, and propose solutions where big Earth data can make significant contributions. This paper calls for further joint actions and collaboration to build a digital silk road in support of sustainable development at national, regional and global levels.  相似文献   

坦桑尼亚西南部乌本迪带内Nsamya镁铁-超镁铁质杂岩体的锆石U-Pb年龄、地球化学特征及构造意义     

许康康  刘晓阳  孙凯  龚鹏辉  吴兴源  何胜飞  孙宏伟 《地质学报》2021,95(4):1174-1190

在坦桑尼亚西南部的乌本迪带内首次发现了阿拉斯加型(岛弧型)镁铁-超镁铁环状杂岩体,对约束区域构造演化历史具有重要的意义.Nsamya杂岩体主要岩性为单辉橄榄岩和辉长岩,单辉橄榄岩位于杂岩体的中部,而辉长岩主要位于北部边缘,表现出环状岩体特征.锆石U-Pb年龄表明杂岩体的形成年龄介于1874～1944Ma之间,为古元古代晚期.岩石地球化学显示,杂岩体具有低SiO2,高MgO、FeOT、Cr和Ni含量,富集LREE和Ba、Pb、U等大离子亲石元素,不同程度的亏损HREE和Nb、Ta、Zr、Hf和Ti等高场强元素特征,为具有岛弧构造背景的阿拉斯加型岩体.综合区域地质背景资料,认为其形成于古元古代乌本迪造山作用晚期的岛弧盆地闭合阶段,玄武质岩浆来源于受俯冲流体交代的岩石圈地幔,并在上升过程中遭受下地壳基底的混染作用.  相似文献   

鲜水河断裂带乾宁段岩石特征与内部结构及其物理-化学性质     

吴琼  李海兵  CHEVALIER Marie-Luce  米桂龙  李超  何祥丽  李亚林 《岩石学报》2021,37(10):3204-3224

断裂带的变形行为和断层滑移机制是目前地震研究关注的热点,断裂带岩石特征、内部结构与物理化学性质是确定断层蠕滑或粘滑行为以及断层滑移机制的基础和关键。本文以鲜水河断裂带乾宁段地表出露的断裂岩为研究对象,通过野外地质调查、室内光学显微镜、扫描电镜、粒度统计、粉末X射线衍射分析（XRD）和薄片X射线荧光光谱分析（XRF）等多种研究方法,对鲜水河断裂带岩石特征、结构构造、物性、矿物成分及化学元素分布开展了详细的分析,并探讨了相关变形行为和滑移机制。分析表明：（1）断裂带核部主要由黑色断层泥、浅黄色及黄色断层角砾岩和灰色碎裂岩、灰色断层角砾岩组成,呈单核对称结构;（2）黑色断层泥厚3~5cm,具有快速滑动结构特征,表现为断层粘滑行为。断层泥可划分出13个滑移带,最窄滑移带厚约40μm,至少代表13期古地震事件;（3）断层泥主要由伊利石、高岭石和石英等矿物组成,其中边部伊蒙混层含量异常高,为最新一次古地震的主滑移带。由于伊利石和伊蒙混层（或蒙脱石）为主要黏土矿物的断层泥渗透率低、孔隙流体压力大,以及发现断层泥楔入脉,表明地震过程中断层滑动存在热增压弱化机制;（4）从断层泥不同滑动带中碎块蚀变程度和矿物分布特征来看,地震主滑动带有向碎裂岩方向迁移的趋势。推测断层在滑动过程中,更趋向于向弱矿物含量高（如伊利石、伊蒙混层）、强矿物含量低（如方解石、高岭石）的围岩一侧迁移。  相似文献   

内蒙古沙巴尔吐地区中二叠世蛇绿构造混杂岩及同期花岗质杂岩的发现及地质意义     

李英雷  武广  贺宏云  陈公正  杨飞  李铁刚  宋广超  肖剑伟 《岩石矿物学杂志》2021,40(2):217-235

中亚造山带东段内蒙古兴安盟扎赉特旗地区作为二连-贺根山断裂的东延部分,蕴含了古亚洲洋俯冲消亡过程及洋-陆转换的关键信息,然而对于该区蛇绿构造混杂岩的研究相对薄弱,成为制约古亚洲洋构造演化研究的瓶颈。本文在扎赉特旗沙巴尔吐地区发现了蛇绿构造混杂岩、与岛弧环境相关的英云闪长岩-奥长花岗岩和碱长花岗岩组合。对蛇绿构造混杂岩中超镁铁质岩和碱长花岗岩开展LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb测年显示其年龄分别为279.2±3.3 Ma和278.2±1.7 Ma,表明其形成于中二叠世早期。超镁铁质岩含有低的SiO_2含量(43.54%～46.38%),低Na_2O和K_2O而富MgO,Mg~#为89～94,显示亏损地幔-过渡型地幔特征,起源于约70%的石榴石二辉橄榄岩的部分熔融,属俯冲型(SSZ)蛇绿岩。英云闪长岩-奥长花岗岩属准铝质钙碱性系列,高Al_2O_3含量,相对富钠贫钾,高Sr(平均600.00×10~(-6))、低Y(平均12.50×10~(-6))和Yb(平均1.18×10~(-6)),具典型。型埃达克岩特征,是俯冲环境下低钾洋壳玄武岩部分熔融的产物。碱长花岗岩富硅和碱,低铁和镁,具有高的正εHf(t)值(平均+18.9),位于亏损地幔线之上,一阶段、二阶段模式年龄基本近于或者小于岩石结晶年龄,起源于岛弧型的新生地壳。沙巴尔吐蛇绿构造混杂岩代表中二叠世早期洋内俯冲的产物,表明古亚洲洋在中二叠世早期未闭合,仍存在持续性的俯冲活动,闭合时间至少应在中二叠世之后。  相似文献   

Research achievements of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on 60 years of aeromagnetic surveys     

《China Geology》2021,4(1):147-177

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (also referred to as the Plateau) has long received much attention from the community of geoscience due to its unique geographical location and rich mineral resources. This paper reviews the aeromagnetic surveys in the Plateau in the past 60 years and summarizes relevant research achievements, which mainly include the followings. (1) The boundaries between the Plateau and its surrounding regions have been clarified. In detail, its western boundary is restricted by West Kunlun-Altyn Tagh arc-shaped magnetic anomaly zone forming due to the arc-shaped connection of the Altyn Tagh and Kangxiwa faults and its eastern boundary consists of the boundaries among different magnetic fields along the Longnan (Wudu)-Kangding Fault. Meanwhile, the fault on the northern margin of the Northern Qilian Mountains serves as its northern boundary. (2) The Plateau is mainly composed of four orogens that were stitched together, namely East Kunlun-Qilian, Hoh-Xil-Songpan, Chamdo-Southwestern Sanjiang (Nujiang, Lancang, and Jinsha rivers in southeastern China), and Gangdese-Himalaya orogens. (3) The basement of the Plateau is dominated by weakly magnetic Proterozoic metamorphic rocks and lacks strongly magnetic Archean crystalline basement of stable continents such as the Tarim and Sichuan blocks. Therefore, it exhibits the characteristics of unstable orogenic basement. (4) The Yarlung-Zangbo suture zone forming due to continent-continent collisions since the Cenozoic shows double aeromagnetic anomaly zones. Therefore, it can be inferred that the Yarlung-Zangbo suture zone formed from the Indian Plate subducting towards and colliding with the Eurasian Plate twice. (5) A huge negative aeromagnetic anomaly in nearly SN trending has been discovered in the middle part of the Plateau, indicating a giant deep thermal-tectonic zone. (6) A dual-layer magnetic structure has been revealed in the Plateau. It consists of shallow magnetic anomaly zones in nearly EW and NW trending and deep magnetic anomaly zones in nearly SN trending. They overlap vertically and cross horizontally, showing the flyover-type geological structure of the Plateau. (7) A group of NW-trending faults occur in eastern Tibet, which is intersected rather than connected by the nearly EW trending that develop in middle-west Tibet. (8) As for the central uplift zone that occurs through the Qiangtang Basin, its metamorphic basement tends to gradually descend from west to east, showing the form of steps. The Qiangtang Basin is divided into the northern and southern part by the central uplift zone in it. The basement in the Qiangtang Basin is deep in the north and west and shallow in the south and west. The basement in the northern Qiangtang Basin is deep and relatively stable and thus is more favorable for the generation and preservation of oil and gas. Up to now, 19 favorable tectonic regions of oil and gas have been determined in the Qiangtang Basin. (9) A total of 21 prospecting areas of mineral resources have been delineated and thousands of ore-bearing (or mineralization) anomalies have been discovered. Additionally, the formation and uplift mechanism of the Plateau are briefly discussed in this paper.©2021 China Geology Editorial Office.  相似文献   

Variable hangingwall palaeotransport during Silurian and Devonian thrusting in the western Lachlan Fold Belt: Missing gold lodes,synchronous Melbourne Trough sedimentation and Grampians Group fold interference     

J. McL. Miller  L. J. Dugdale  C. J. L. Wilson 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(6):901-909

The western margin of the Lachlan Fold Belt contains early ductile and brittle structures that formed during northeast‐southwest and east‐west compression, followed by reactivation related to sinistral wrenching. At Stawell all of these structural features (and the associated gold lodes) are dismembered by a complex array of later northwest‐, north‐ and northeast‐dipping faults. Detailed underground structural analysis has identified northwest‐trending mid‐Devonian thrusts (Tabberabberan) that post‐date Early Devonian plutonism and have a top‐to‐the‐southwest transport. Deformation associated with the initial stages of dismemberment occurred along an earlier array of faults that trend southwest‐northeast (or east‐west) and dip to the northwest (or north). The initial transport of the units in the hangingwall of these fault structures was top‐to‐the‐southeast. ‘Missing’ gold lodes were discovered beneath the Magdala orebody by reconstructing a displacement history that involved a combination of transport vectors (top‐to‐the‐southeast and top‐to‐the‐southwest). Fold interference structures in the adjacent Silurian Grampians Group provide further evidence for at least two almost orthogonal shortening regimes, post the mid‐Silurian. Overprinting relationships, and correlation with synchronous sedimentation in the Melbourne Trough, indicates that the early fault structures are mid‐ to late‐Silurian in age (Ludlow: ca 420–414 Ma). These atypical southeast‐vergent structures have regional extent and separate significant northeast‐southwest shortening that occurred in the mid‐Devonian (‘Tabberabberan orogeny’) and Late Ordovician (‘Benambran orogeny’).  相似文献   

Geological interpretation of a deep seismic‐reflection transect across the boundary between the Delamerian and Lachlan Orogens,in the vicinity of the Grampians,western Victoria     

R. J. Korsch  T. J. Barton  D. R. Gray  A. J. Owen  D. A. Foster 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(6):1057-1075

A deep seismic‐reflection transect in western Victoria was designed to provide insights into the structural relationship between the Lachlan and the Delamerian Orogens. Three seismic lines were acquired to provide images of the subsurface from west of the Grampians Range to east of the Stawell‐Ararat Fault Zone. The boundary between the Delamerian and Lachlan Orogens is now generally considered to be the Moyston Fault. In the vicinity of the seismic survey, this fault is intruded by a near‐surface granite, but at depth the fault dips to the east, confirming recent field mapping. East of the Moyston Fault, the uppermost crust is very weakly reflective, consisting of short, non‐continuous, west‐dipping reflections. These weak reflections represent rocks of the Lachlan Orogen and are typical of the reflective character seen on other seismic images from elsewhere in the Lachlan Orogen. Within the Lachlan Orogen, the Pleasant Creek Fault is also east dipping and approximately parallel to the Moyston Fault in the plane of the seismic section. Rocks of the Delamerian Orogen in the vicinity of the seismic line occur below surficial cover to the west of the Moyston Fault. Generally, the upper crust is only weakly reflective, but subhorizontal reflections at shallow depths (up to 3 km) represent the Grampians Group. The Escondida Fault appears to stop below the Grampians Group, and has an apparent gentle dip to the east. Farther east, the Golton and Mehuse Faults are also east dipping. The middle to lower crust below the Delamerian Orogen is strongly reflective, with several major antiformal structures in the middle crust. The Moho is a slightly undulating horizon at the base of the highly reflective middle to lower crust at 11–12 s TWT (approximately 35 km depth). Tectonically, the western margin of the Lachlan Orogen has been thrust over the Delamerian Orogen for a distance of at least 25 km, and possibly over 40 km.  相似文献   

Structural and metamorphic evolution of the Moornambool Metamorphic Complex,western Lachlan Fold Belt,southeastern Australia     

G. Phillips  J. McL. Miller  C. J. L. Wilson 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(5):891-913

The wedge‐shaped Moornambool Metamorphic Complex is bounded by the Coongee Fault to the east and the Moyston Fault to the west. This complex was juxtaposed between stable Delamerian crust to the west and the eastward migrating deformation that occurred in the western Lachlan Fold Belt during the Ordovician and Silurian. The complex comprises Cambrian turbidites and mafic volcanics and is subdivided into a lower greenschist eastern zone and a higher grade amphibolite facies western zone, with sub‐greenschist rocks occurring on either side of the complex. The boundary between the two zones is defined by steeply dipping L‐S tectonites of the Mt Ararat ductile high‐strain zone. Deformation reflects marked structural thickening that produced garnet‐bearing amphibolites followed by exhumation via ductile shearing and brittle faulting. Pressure‐temperature estimates on garnet‐bearing amphibolites in the western zone suggest metamorphic pressures of ～0.7–0.8 GPa and temperatures of ～540–590°C. Metamorphic grade variations suggest that between 15 and 20 km of vertical offset occurs across the east‐dipping Moyston Fault. Bounding fault structures show evidence for early ductile deformation followed by later brittle deformation/reactivation. Ductile deformation within the complex is initially marked by early bedding‐parallel cleavages. Later deformation produced tight to isoclinal D₂ folds and steeply dipping ductile high‐strain zones. The S₂ foliation is the dominant fabric in the complex and is shallowly west‐dipping to flat‐lying in the western zone and steeply west‐dipping in the eastern zone. Peak metamorphism is pre‐ to syn‐D₂. Later ductile deformation reoriented the S₂ foliation, produced S₃ crenulation cleavages across both zones and localised S₄ fabrics. The transition to brittle deformation is defined by the development of east‐ and west‐dipping reverse faults that produce a neutral vergence and not the predominant east‐vergent transport observed throughout the rest of the western Lachlan Fold Belt. Later north‐dipping thrusts overprint these fault structures. The majority of fault transport along ductile and brittle structures occurred prior to the intrusion of the Early Devonian Ararat Granodiorite. Late west‐ and east‐dipping faults represent the final stages of major brittle deformation: these are post plutonism.  相似文献   

Response of detrital zircon and monazite,and their U–Pb isotopic systems,to regional metamorphism and host‐rock partial melting,Cooma Complex,southeastern Australia     

I. S. Williams 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(4):557-580

Progressive Early Silurian low‐pressure greenschist to granulite facies regional metamorphism of Ordovician flysch at Cooma, southeastern Australia, had different effects on detrital zircon and monazite and their U–Pb isotopic systems. Monazite began to dissolve at lower amphibolite facies, virtually disappearing by upper amphibolite facies, above which it began to regrow, becoming most coarsely grained in migmatite leucosome and the anatectic Cooma Granodiorite. Detrital monazite U–Pb ages survived through mid‐amphibolite facies, but not to higher grade. Monazite in the migmatite and granodiorite records only metamorphism and granite genesis at 432.8 ± 3.5 Ma. Detrital zircon was unaffected by metamorphism until the inception of partial melting, when platelets of new zircon precipitated in preferred orientations on the surface of the grains. These amalgamated to wholly enclose the grains in new growth, characterised by the development of {211} crystal faces, in the migmatite and granodiorite. New growth, although maximum in the leucosome, was best dated in the granodiorite at 435.2 ± 6.3 Ma. The combined best estimate for the age of metamorphism and granite genesis is 433.4 ± 3.1 Ma. Detrital zircon U–Pb ages were preserved unmodified throughout metamorphism and magma genesis and indicate derivation of the Cooma Granodiorite from Lower Palaeozoic source rocks with the same protolith as the Ordovician sediments, not Precambrian basement. Cooling of the metamorphic complex was relatively slow (average ～12°C/10⁶y from ～730 to ～170°C), more consistent with the unroofing of a regional thermal high than cooling of an igneous intrusion. The ages of detrital zircon and monazite from the Ordovician flysch (dominantly composite populations 600–500 Ma and 1.2–0.9 Ga old) indicate its derivation from a source remote from the Australian craton.  相似文献